TT: This is who the Orioles are right now (23-27 in last 50 games)

[Jim'sKid26]

Things we know:

The team can score runs, and they can do it in bunches.

Good team speed generally.

Top of the rotation is solid. Burnes can pitch and knows what it takes to compete in the post season. Eflin is a solid, though not spectacular #2.

IF defense with Urias/Gunnar/Holiday and Monty is solid though not spectacular

OF defense with Milkman/Ced/Tony is solid though not spectacular

Catching is solid defensively though I think most teams know they can run on Adley and McCann

 

Things we don't know:

Which guys in the bullpen are going to pitch in high leverage; I think it's still up in the air

Is GRod healthy and can he be effective in the post season

Where is Suarez best utilized?

And, most importantly, can this team get hot at the right time to run the table in the playoffs?

 

I think this team has all the parts to get into the tournament and ultimately win it. If a few BP arms figure it out (I'm talking to you Mr. Soto) and a few bats go on a tear October could be very fun to watch. 

[LookitsPuck]

33 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think the bigger problem with the critique you were responding to is that they really did need “quantity.”

I’m generally a huge believer in the notion of “quality over quantity.” But with the way this pitching staff has been decimated with injuries — and guys falling off at the most inopportune time — the answer here unfortunately was not just to go get one or two top guys and really raise the ceiling of the team. They needed multiple starters and multiple relievers to patch the holes that have been ripped in this roster by all the injuries. 

And we know that because of exactly the point you raised: both Eflin and Dominguez have been 100% pure “quality” since they got here, but it hasn’t been enough. Eflin has gone 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA and Dominguez has a 1.74 ERA through 10 appearances — you could have traded for Skubal and Tanner Scott, and you would not have gotten any markedly better performance than that. In fact, both of our guys have been better than those guys since the deadline.

But we’re still only 12-11 since the Hays trade started our deadline dealing, in large part because our pitching staff boasts a collective 4.90 ERA in that time frame, despite the efforts of those two. The guys not named Eflin and Dominguez have combined for a 5.52 ERA. Shooting for “quality over quantity” was never going to fix that.

 

It sucks that we’re here. It’s devastating that 7 of the top 13ish pitchers in the organization are currently out with injuries, and it hurts even more that two others are basically unusable at the moment due to ineffectiveness (Kimbrel/Irvin). But this is a problem that couldn’t have been solved by just bringing in a Skubal/Crochet or a high-end closer — they needed to seek “quantity.”

This is a good post but it’s assuming I’m asking for Crochet or Skubal. I do think Eflin was an excellent pickup. I think Dominguez is solid. I categorically think Rogers and Soto were major misses. Look at what the Dodgers and others gave up for Kopech, Fedde, etc. There were better options, and Rogers just isn’t a defensible acquisition.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, survivedc said:

How do you know we can’t win with this team? 

You make a statement like that, and there’s roughly an 80-90% chance you’ll be proven right in hindsight, because only 1 of the 12 playoff teams will win the WS.  And then you can say, “see, I was right!”  If you’re wrong, nobody will remember or care, we’ll be too busy celebrating.

But the truth is, we can only win with this team if a bunch of guys start playing a whole lot better.  

[dtk9119]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

That's not true at all. There have been many mediocre teams, particularly in recent memory as more teams are added, that just got hot at the right time.  That's what the baseball playoffs are all about.  Who happens to be playing well in October?

The Rangers squeaking into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season and going on to win the WS while not losing a playoff game on the road? I might be missing something but I can't recall any team in recent memory (last 20-30+ years) doing that... there have been teams getting "hot" and making the playoffs and maybe winning a series but not anything like what the Rangers did...

[Baseball fandom]

3 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

That is definitely false.  I haven’t looked at 3 runs but we have the fewest number of games scoring 2 runs or less in the league so no way we have most games scoring 3 or less in league.  I would bet we are probably the best in league there or close to top.  

Instead of definitely saying it's false without looking it up would be wrong of you. Now is it possible it was 2 runs or less maybe that was what it was but regardless it should be looked up first. If so I apologize for it 

[dtk9119]

3 hours ago, Royle said:

Arizona finished 16-17 last year on their way to 84 wins.  Then they ran off 3 straight postseason series wins going 7-3 before running into the Rangers in the WS.

The year before the Phillies went 7-13 after September 15 and finished with 87 wins.  They went 9-2 in winning their 3 postseason series and got to the WS.

The 2014 Giants plodded along at 13-12 after September 1st,  finished with 88 wins, and then had a postseason record of 12-5 when they won it all.

The 2006 Cardinals finished 83-78, after a 25-36 run at the end of the year.  Then they won the NLDS, NLCS, and WS, going  11-5 in the postseason.

I stand corrected. I thought about the Giants and even the 2014-15 Royals. I guess its the whole recent memory thing...

[interloper]

I still like this team quite a bit, as frustrating as they are at times. A couple of things breaking right and we look like the best team in the game again. It wouldn't take much. 

Right now they just need to tread water until the 3-4 injured players return and then we'll see what's up in the playoffs. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, dtk9119 said:

The Rangers squeaking into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season and going on to win the WS while not losing a playoff game on the road? I might be missing something but I can't recall any team in recent memory (last 20-30+ years) doing that... there have been teams getting "hot" and making the playoffs and maybe winning a series but not anything like what the Rangers did...

You just moved the goalposts considerably from what your earlier post said.  The O’s are on pace to win 91-92 games if they play .500 ball the rest of the way.  A team with 91 or fewer wins has won the World Series twelve times in the last 50 years.  That’s not the norm but it’s far from a rare occurrence. We’ve seen an 83-win team win the World Series.   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You just moved the goalposts considerably from what your earlier post said.  The O’s are on pace to win 91-92 games if they play .500 ball the rest of the way.  A team with 91 or fewer wins has won the World Series twelve times in the last 50 years.  That’s not the norm but it’s far from a rare occurrence. We’ve seen an 83-win team win the World Series.   

Also, while I'm expecting some teams to go on a burner to finish out the year right now no one is on pace to win much more than 91 games.

If the Guardians win 93 are they a clear favorite?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also, while I'm expecting some teams to go on a burner to finish out the year right now no one is on pace to win much more than 91 games.

If the Guardians win 93 are they a clear favorite?

Right now the Guardians’ betting odds are quite long.  If I were a betting man I’d be tempted to put a few dollars in that basket.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Right now the Guardians’ betting odds are quite long.  If I were a betting man I’d be tempted to put a few dollars in that basket.  

Probably not a ton of money coming out of Cleveland.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Baseball fandom said:

Instead of definitely saying it's false without looking it up would be wrong of you. Now is it possible it was 2 runs or less maybe that was what it was but regardless it should be looked up first. If so I apologize for it 

Games scoring 0 runs: 4 (t-1st)

Games scoring 1 or fewer runs: 14 (t-3rd)

Games scoring 2 or fewer runs: 29 (t-3rd)

Games scoring 3 or fewer runs: 44 (6th)

NOTE: The rank provided is from fewest occasions to most. In other words, we have been shut out the fewest times in baseball. And so on.

Edited August 19 by e16bball

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Games scoring 0 runs: 4 (t-1st)

Games scoring 1 or fewer runs: 14 (t-3rd)

Games scoring 2 or fewer runs: 29 (t-3rd)

Games scoring 3 or fewer runs: 44 (6th)

NOTE: The rank provided is from fewest occasions to most. In other words, we have been shut out the fewest times in baseball. And so on.

Did you do all this work yourself or is there a website that has it?  Either way thanks for sharing it.  

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

This is a good post but it’s assuming I’m asking for Crochet or Skubal. I do think Eflin was an excellent pickup. I think Dominguez is solid. I categorically think Rogers and Soto were major misses. Look at what the Dodgers and others gave up for Kopech, Fedde, etc. There were better options, and Rogers just isn’t a defensible acquisition.

Fedde has an ERA of 5.68 since joining the Cardinals so not sure that is quality.  Kopech was an absolute mess before the trade  and hasn’t been good in almost 2 years,  He had a 5.43 ERA last year and 4.74 era this year with an ERA over 6 in the month of July before being traded.  He was a much bigger reclamation project then Dominguez and even Soto.  He has been great in LA but there was nothing that said this is a quality guy to get in a trade at the time.  Even the boards biggest Kopech supporter on here who wanted him said he was a mess and to not go after him.  

[e16bball]

24 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Did you do all this work yourself or is there a website that has it?  Either way thanks for sharing it.  

I was able to do it via the Team Batting game finder tool using Stathead on Baseball-Reference.

I wasn’t able to find that info via any “free” source. At least in a league-wide ranking form. You can find it for any team on Baseball-Reference from the batting game log tab on each team’s page. If you click the “R” header, you can sort the runs column low to high, and it will show how many games they have of each run total, as you can see for the O’s here:

Doing that for all 30 teams and comparing them requires more commitment than I possess, though. That’s where the Stathead cheat comes in awfully handy…