Just how bad is the Orioles bullpen this year?

[BRobinsonfan]

2 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

This is probably the worst BP among all contenders. But okay, go ahead and shoot the messenger.

Apologies.  As @Frobby pointed out, I don't think anyone disagrees with you that, especially as of late, the bullpen has been deficient and needs improvement.  I do think the stats you choose to highlight in trying to make that point are pretty selective and thus miss the bigger picture.  Nevertheless, I'll try and do better in making my points about your points in the future.  

 

[Flash- bd]

18 hours ago, TopGunnar said:

Bullpen has stunk for multiple years. Elias has done a horrible job building it. And if we make the playoffs we will be completely exposed.

I'm sorry, but I find this to be hilariously overstated. 

2023 MLB bullpen ranking: 5th

2024 MLB bullpen ranking: 10th

Best overall record in baseball from 2023-24 with the lowest or second lowest payroll in baseball. 

Way too much cherry-picking of evidence going on in this forum and missing the forest for the trees. You don't achieve the best record in baseball over 1.75 seasons with the lowest or second-third lowest payroll if your architect "has done a terrible job building [the bullpen]." All elite teams are not quite elite in some category or other that you can cherry-pick, that doesn't change the fact that, TO REPEAT, we have the best record in baseball over 1.75 seasons with the lowest or second-third lowest payroll in the sport. 

Honestly, I think we need to get a collective grip, and show a bit more gratitude. 

[G54377]

The most notable difference is literally just Bautista to Kimbrel combined with the loss of Coloumbe. You lose two of the top 10-15 bullpen arms in the league and it’s going to hurt. The rest of the bullpen has mostly been adequate.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Like I said in my post, I don’t think most people disagree that our bullpen is pretty bad, especially right now.  I just didn’t think the data presented in the OP really proved that.  

Here’s our bullpen ERA by month:

March/April: 3.81

May: 3.65

June: 3.23

July: 4.83

August: 6.35

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that our bullpen has really struggled these last two months.  You just have to hope that a couple of guys can get things turned around and that Webb and Coulombe will return and be effective.

When you really look at who has been horrible  since July 1:

- Kimbrel has totally imploded, 7.24 ERA

- Soto has been awful since we got him, 15.43 ERA

- Irvin was terrible, 9.00 ERA, and got demoted   

- Bryan Baker, 5.73 ERA, has been his usual unreliable self

- Dillon Tate had three straight bad outings at the beginning of July (13.50 ERA).   

Other guys like Akin (4.19) and Perez (4.11) haven’t pitched their best, but they’ve been within the normal ups and downs of a season.  Smith (4.11) has been about as good as could be expected.  

 

 

The loss of Coulombe and even Webb can not be overstated. They were two really reliable consistent relievers and they've been replaced by less reliable, inconsistent relievers. 

Elias clearly knew this at the trade deadline and did acquire two relievers, but unfortunately, Soto completely crapped the bed in two of his first 3 games as an Orioles. The good news is he's now had four scoreless appearances and has only allowed one hit and one walk over those 3.1 innings. Hopefully he's righting the ship. Dominguez has taken over as closer for now and looks to be a great pick up.

So at least he addressed a need though it did cost him did two decent pitching prospects (Johnson and Chace) and Hays (who was not a loss IMHO). 

So the pen now looks like this:

Closer: Dominguez
HLR: Cano
HLL: Perez
MLR: Burch
MLL: Soto
LLR: Kimbrel
LLL: Akin
LR: Rogers
MU: Selby

Burch is kind of becoming a pumpkin and that is really the key for me, is to upgrade that Medium Leverage righty. McDermott might have been that guy but his injury ended that. Dillon Tate has been pitching well in AAA and is probably next up, but his stuff is not very good overall. Could Brandon Young be that guy? I don't know, but I'd be willing to give him a look at some point even without reliever experience.

If Dominguez can keep it going, and IF Cano and Soto can refind it, and IF somebody out of Burch or Kimbrel can step up, maybe they can survive until Coulombe and Webb (Webb just started playing catch) come back. Maybe. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The loss of Coulombe and even Webb can not be overstated. They were two really reliable consistent relievers and they've been replaced by less reliable, inconsistent relievers. 

Elias clearly knew this at the trade deadline and did acquire two relievers, but unfortunately, Soto completely crapped the bed in two of his first 3 games as an Orioles. The good news is he's now had four scoreless appearances and has only allowed one hit and one walk over those 3.1 innings. Hopefully he's righting the ship. Dominguez has taken over as closer for now and looks to be a great pick up.

So at least he addressed a need though it did cost him did two decent pitching prospects (Johnson and Chace) and Hays (who was not a loss IMHO). 

So the pen now looks like this:

Closer: Dominguez
HLR: Cano
HLL: Perez
MLR: Burch
MLL: Soto
LLR: Kimbrel
LLL: Akin
LR: Rogers
MU: Selby

Burch is kind of becoming a pumpkin and that is really the key for me, is to upgrade that Medium Leverage righty. McDermott might have been that guy but his injury ended that. Dillon Tate has been pitching well in AAA and is probably next up, but his stuff is not very good overall. Could Brandon Young be that guy? I don't know, but I'd be willing to give him a look at some point even without reliever experience.

If Dominguez can keep it going, and IF Cano and Soto can refind it, and IF somebody out of Burch or Kimbrel can step up, maybe they can survive until Coulombe and Webb (Webb just started playing catch) come back. Maybe. 

 

The bullpen is very much like the rotation.  Both depleted by injuries.  Both average-ish and "good enough" for the regular season as in to play .500 ball.  The good news is that we could possibly have Webb/Coloumbe back.  There might not be such help for the rotation.  

Maybe there's a miracle and Bautista comes back or we try Morfe.  Kimbrel could also go on a heater.  He's done it before this year.  

Edited August 19 by sportsfan8703

[jabba72]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The bullpen is very much like the rotation.  Both depleted by injuries.  Both average-ish and " enough" for the regular season as in to play .500 ball.  The news is that we could possibly have Webb/Coloumbe back.  There might not be such help for the rotation.  

Maybe there's a miracle and Bautista comes back or we try Morfe.  Kimbrel could also go on a heater.  He's done it before this year.  

I'm thinking Grod comes back in time for the Playoffs at least. That gives the O's a solid top 3 with Kremer or Saurez ready to step in at a moments notice. If Webb and Coloumbe also return we could be in business. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The bullpen is very much like the rotation.  Both depleted by injuries.  Both average-ish and "good enough" for the regular season as in to play .500 ball.  The good news is that we could possibly have Webb/Coloumbe back.  There might not be such help for the rotation.  

Maybe there's a miracle and Bautista comes back or we try Morfe.  Kimbrel could also go on a heater.  He's done it before this year.  

You have as much chance of pitching in the bullpen this year than Morfe. 

As for Kimbrel, we have seen him correct the ship before, but still I can't imagine "trusting him" again in closing situations barring a lack of availability of several other guys.

[eddie83]

 

[Uli2001]

22 hours ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Apologies.  As @Frobby pointed out, I don't think anyone disagrees with you that, especially as of late, the bullpen has been deficient and needs improvement.  I do think the stats you choose to highlight in trying to make that point are pretty selective and thus miss the bigger picture.  Nevertheless, I'll try and do better in making my points about your points in the future.  

 

Thanks for your message. No problem, understood.

[Uli2001]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You have as much chance of pitching in the bullpen this year than Morfe. 

As for Kimbrel, we have seen him correct the ship before, but still I can't imagine "trusting him" again in closing situations barring a lack of availability of several other guys.

Kimbrel needs to win his closer position back. It can't be given to him. He has to go out there when called upon and show he's pitching at a high level again. If he can't or won't, then tough luck.

[Uli2001]

22 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

I'm sorry, but I find this to be hilariously overstated. 

2023 MLB bullpen ranking: 5th

2024 MLB bullpen ranking: 10th

Best overall record in baseball from 2023-24 with the lowest or second lowest payroll in baseball. 

Way too much cherry-picking of evidence going on in this forum and missing the forest for the trees. You don't achieve the best record in baseball over 1.75 seasons with the lowest or second-third lowest payroll if your architect "has done a terrible job building [the bullpen]." All elite teams are not quite elite in some category or other that you can cherry-pick, that doesn't change the fact that, TO REPEAT, we have the best record in baseball over 1.75 seasons with the lowest or second-third lowest payroll in the sport. 

Honestly, I think we need to get a collective grip, and show a bit more gratitude. 

The bullpen has had a worse performance in the second half than in the first half, in both 2023 and 2024. So it would be interesting to see the rankings for the second-half only (the one that is likely to be reproduced in the playoffs). In part, this was due to injuries. But this is part of the game, all teams have it. If other teams are doing better, it's because they have more depth or a plan B.