Should we kick the tires on Hector Neris?

[Too Tall]

With the way this team has been playing lately, I feel like kicking a lot of tires but not this one. I just wish all the tires we have were fully inflated.

[LookitsPuck]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

And Astro!

I totally forgot about that lol

[webbrick2010]

A bullpen full of pitchers released by other teams, on to the World Series

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

A bullpen full of pitchers released by other teams, on to the World Series

It's pretty funny to look at the makeup of the bullpen right now vs. before the trade deadline:

• Seranthony - trade deadline acquisition
• Akin - drafted
• Cano - trade
• Kimbrel - free agent
• Perez - waiver wire
• Selby - trade 
• Smith - mid year minor league contract after Marlins cut him
• Soto - trade

But if we look at the start of 2024:

• Kimbrel - free agent
• Akin - drafted
• Baumann - drafted
• Cano - trade
• Coulombe - trade
• Perez - waiver wire
• Tate - trade
• Webb - waiver wire (Vespi - drafted, took Webb's spot on OD but Webb was on paternity list)

I think it's very clear that Elias does not like picking up FAs via free agency by giving them major league contracts outside of Kimbrel. And if we look at the OD roster, it was very risky to go into the season with Akin (who was bad/hurt in 2023), Baumann (converted starter who was hit/miss in 2023), Tate (hurt in 2023). Basically, the only reliable arms going into this season were Kimbrel, Cano, Perez, Webb. That was a worry.

[HowAboutThat]

7 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the issue with Brandon Young is he's both unproven and has not operated as a reliever much at all this year. He's apparently made, what, 3 appearances as a reliever with 33 PA (which would be more like a middle/long reliever).

Personally, I'd like Young as an option in September when rosters expand, and I'd like Rogers optioned as Povich given the rotation spot. Young is intriguing, though. But there's a world in which you can have Young *and* Neris. 

I agree completely that Young is very much an unknown. But Neris is a known, and he’s not good. Given that Eflin just went down, now we’re stuck with Povich AND Rogers.

If the Os are going to gamble, it just makes sense to gamble with an in-house guy with good potential.

Im not gonna die on this hill, though. If they wanna give Neris a try, fine. He only has to be better than Soto, and that’s a very low bar.

[LookitsPuck]

OK, I think from overuse, I'm categorizing Neris as an upgrade over Burch Smith. 

[sportsfan8703]

21 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

A bullpen full of pitchers released by other teams, on to the World Series

Felix Bautista was released by the Nats.  Would you prefer a bullpen of former 1st rd picks with Robert Stephenson as the vet FA spending splurge?  

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Felix Bautista was released by the Nats.  Would you prefer a bullpen of former 1st rd picks with Robert Stephenson as the vet FA spending splurge?  

He was released, but it was by the Marlins, btw.

[sportsfan8703]

From June 12 to August 10, Neris had a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 IP.  

Relievers stats are always going to be skewed by their couple of bad outings each season.  Neris has only had two of those.  3 ER and 4 ER.  It looks like Neris has lost something on his FB because that is what is getting hit harder.  

He's worth a flier.  Would rather have him than Tate and probably Burch Smith, but Smith could be optioned this year until 9/1.  

[HowAboutThat]

21 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

It's pretty funny to look at the makeup of the bullpen right now vs. before the trade deadline:

• Seranthony - trade deadline acquisition
• Akin - drafted
• Cano - trade
• Kimbrel - free agent
• Perez - waiver wire
• Selby - trade 
• Smith - mid year minor league contract after Marlins cut him
• Soto - trade

But if we look at the start of 2024:

• Kimbrel - free agent
• Akin - drafted
• Baumann - drafted
• Cano - trade
• Coulombe - trade
• Perez - waiver wire
• Tate - trade
• Webb - waiver wire (Vespi - drafted, took Webb's spot on OD but Webb was on paternity list)

I think it's very clear that Elias does not like picking up FAs via free agency by giving them major league contracts outside of Kimbrel. And if we look at the OD roster, it was very risky to go into the season with Akin (who was bad/hurt in 2023), Baumann (converted starter who was hit/miss in 2023), Tate (hurt in 2023). Basically, the only reliable arms going into this season were Kimbrel, Cano, Perez, Webb. That was a worry.

I take your point, but Selby was a cash considerations type trade, and that hardly counts as much more than a waiver claim. He had a terrific debut, though. Would be nice if he can do it again for 30 more innings.

it should be pretty easy to go through all Elias’ pickups and separate the positive WAR guys from the negative. I think that would show that Elias really REALLY likes finding hidden value in low-cost acquisitions, so much so that he’d rather gamble on them than get someone more reliable.

Thats pretty common among any GM. After all who doesn’t want to find inexpensive value? But Elias seems to overdo it.

[sportsfan8703]

17 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

I take your point, but Selby was a cash considerations type trade, and that hardly counts as much more than a waiver claim. He had a terrific debut, though. Would be nice if he can do it again for 30 more innings.

it should be pretty easy to go through all Elias’ pickups and separate the positive WAR guys from the negative. I think that would show that Elias really REALLY likes finding hidden value in low-cost acquisitions, so much so that he’d rather gamble on them than get someone more reliable.

Thats pretty common among any GM. After all who doesn’t want to find inexpensive value? But Elias seems to overdo it.

Relievers are sort of like NFL RBs.  Just churn and burn fresh arms like fresh knees.  

[HowAboutThat]

24 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Relievers are sort of like NFL RBs.  Just churn and burn fresh arms like fresh knees.  

Of course. There’s always room for cannon fodder.

the problem is when a GM relies too much on cannon fodder and not on getting some worthwhile sergeants and captains.

finding rejects who can still contribute at least for a while is a real skill and Mike is very good at it. The problem is that he’s not as good at it as he thinks he is and he’s relying too much on those rejects. And now the Os are last in line instead of first.

And personally, I’m still kind of annoyed that he dumped Vinny Nittoli when he didn’t have to.

[Tryptamine]

You absolutely do not want Neris.  At this point he is, at best, a sixth inning reliever. The 3.89 ERA looks reasonable, right? It's all smoke and mirrors.

His K/9 from 2023 to 2024 fell from 10.14 to 9.41, his BB/9 rose from 4.08 to 5.32, his FIP is up from 3.83 to 4.09, his xFIP is up from 4.45 to 4.56 and his xERA is up from 3.33 to 4.55. He's also giving up more hard contact in 2024 than he was in 2023.

 

[BRobinsonfan]

He's 35 years old, and his average to poor scores are high in his Baseball Savant profile. There's not a lot to get excited about here. 

 

  

Edited August 21 by BRobinsonfan

[bpilktree67]

We might see him but it will be in an Astros uniform.  He signed with them today.