Burnes certainly hasn't pitched like an ACE

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is he tipping his pitches?

I thought the CB to Teoscar wasn't that bad a pitch. He just seemed to be sitting CB.

The one to Shohei fooled him and he gave it a half swing. He's just so freaking good he can hit it out with one hand. 

I would think that the O's would be really good at being able to tell if one of their guys were tipping pitches.

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would think that the O's would be really good at being able to tell if one of their guys were tipping pitches.

It happens a lot, even in the MLB.  Recently Clark Schmidt of the Yankees was tipping. 

“Some guys don't [tip] at all, some guys do a lot and some guys go in and out of certain things. So it's just something that we're constantly with all our guys paying attention to.”

Josh Rojas confirms Yankees' Clarke Schmidt was tipping pitches (mlb.com)

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It happens a lot, even in the MLB.  Recently Clark Schmidt of the Yankees was tipping. 

“Some guys don't [tip] at all, some guys do a lot and some guys go in and out of certain things. So it's just something that we're constantly with all our guys paying attention to.”

Josh Rojas confirms Yankees' Clarke Schmidt was tipping pitches (mlb.com)

I'm not doubting it happens, I think the O's would have the tools to quickly discover it happening.

I think with all the cameras and such these days that finding a tell would be easier than ever. 

[Sports Guy]

Palmer mentioned last night that from the CF camera that you can tell he is flying open and that it may be easy to pick up the ball and what he’s throwing.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Why throw the same exact pitch/location to Hernandez on the fourth and sixth pitch of that at bat?  Same exact curveball shape in almost the same exact location.  It stands to reason that the pitch will less effective the second time.

 

4th pitch —> https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9575ccd6-9f7a-49a4-821a-4387669e6fc8

6th pitch —> https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=49aa5596-501d-4341-89c0-ac28594a2dfd

better result vs Ryan Bliss on July 4th —>  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9e260228-c0eb-4417-a6ac-3b5deedf6d96

What makes you think that was the intended location of either pitch.  I’d guess they wanted to go low and away both times and just missed location.    Very few pitchers intend to throw curves on the inner half.

[LookitsPuck]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What makes you think that was the intended location of either pitch.  I’d guess they wanted to go low and away both times and just missed location.    Very few pitchers intend to throw curves on the inner half.

McCann set up middle/low, but it did leak back inside/middle which, well, I'd argue don't keep throwing that same pitch that many times during the AB, because even where he set up wasn't optimal. 

Looking back at the full AB:

1. Outside, low curveball for a swinging strike - great pitch
2. Tried to go back to the same pitch and Teoscar didn't bite
3. Tried to go same location but with a sinker and Teoscar didn't bite
4. Went middle/in with a curveball that Teoscar fouled off - this is where I would have stopped with the curveball. You already threw it 3 times, mix it up.
5. Threw a slider on the outside corner...fouled off
6. Hanging curve same location (at least where it ended up) as the 4th pitch

I guess, to me, they kept going low/middle and didn't once try to elevate. You look at Teoscar's statcast, and he's vulnerable to pitches away and pitches high. 

Personally, I hated the sequencing after the sinker. We didn't see one cutter thrown. I have no idea why. 

[JimGinSP]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would think that the O's would be really good at being able to tell if one of their guys were tipping pitches.

 

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not doubting it happens, I think the O's would have the tools to quickly discover it happening.

I think with all the cameras and such these days that finding a tell would be easier than ever. 

Say No More

Terry Crowley giving a wink wink, nudge nudge regarding “candid photography”

Just a little something completely different.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would have been before they changed the rules to help facilitate the running game.

Probably a combination of fewer baserunners, fewer attempts and lowered success rate league wide.

Not sure who he had as a catcher but that was also probably a factor.

Probably..it would be interesting to know if he threw over a lot more with the fast runners.. 

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is he tipping his pitches?

I thought the CB to Teoscar wasn't that bad a pitch. He just seemed to be sitting CB.

 

I thought it was a terrible pitch.  The irony is he had a terrific curve ball last night.  44% whiff rate, 39% CSW% on that pitch.  But when you hang one, all that goes out the window.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

McCann set up middle/low, but it did leak back inside/middle which, well, I'd argue don't keep throwing that same pitch that many times during the AB, because even where he set up wasn't optimal. 

Looking back at the full AB:

1. Outside, low curveball for a swinging strike - great pitch
2. Tried to go back to the same pitch and Teoscar didn't bite
3. Tried to go same location but with a sinker and Teoscar didn't bite
4. Went middle/in with a curveball that Teoscar fouled off - this is where I would have stopped with the curveball. You already threw it 3 times, mix it up.
5. Threw a slider on the outside corner...fouled off
6. Hanging curve same location (at least where it ended up) as the 4th pitch

I guess, to me, they kept going low/middle and didn't once try to elevate. You look at Teoscar's statcast, and he's vulnerable to pitches away and pitches high. 

Personally, I hated the sequencing after the sinker. We didn't see one cutter thrown. I have no idea why. 

Catchers don’t really give targets anymore but let’s go with they were attempting to go middle low or low and away with the pitch.   Typically, no pitcher is trying to throw a high curveball in or out.   I would probably even agree with the sequencing being wrong but in the end it was a mistake in execution.

[eddie83]

Didn’t watch last night. I think he pitches better rest of year. He is getting hurt with 2 outs. I think that normalizes some rest of year. 

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Is it?  What does it tell us?

Corbin Burnes is currently below his career walk rate at 2.2 (2.5 is his career). Last year it was higher than his career average (3.1). 

What this tells me is that Burnes is an aggressive pitcher. However, his strikeout rate is currently the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate now has declined 4 years in a row from a high of 13.3 in 2020:

• 2021 - 12.6
• 2022 - 10.8
• 2023 - 9.3
• 2024 - 8.4

So, these things do come to a head. 

His worst inning is the 7th inning (303 AVG, 767 OPS) followed by the 5th (278 average, 751 OPS).

To me, this all means the following:

• He's being left in to finish the inning perhaps while he's already gassed/ineffective, so at 2 outs he's getting crushed
• He's being overly aggressive with 2 outs to get out of the inning and is leaking too many pitches in the zone and are more likely to be hit

Kremer is at his worst with 2 outs, Suarez is at his best, Eflin is at his worst with 1 out, Grayson is similar with 2 outs as he is with 1 out, etc. So, I don't necessarily think this is something strategic level where every starter is being pushed further than they should.

But I do think that Hyde gives Burnes a bit too much rope and he's been burnt, especially lately. 

[LookitsPuck]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Catchers don’t really give targets anymore but let’s go with they were attempting to go middle low or low and away with the pitch.   Typically, no pitcher is trying to throw a high curveball in or out.   I would probably even agree with the sequencing being wrong but in the end it was a mistake in execution.

I'm just reading where he was setting up. I know everything is via PitchCom unless the pitcher specifically doesn't want it to prevent against sign stealing. But the catcher does still set up a certain way *at times* and they will also signal the pitch to be in a certain area (generally) with certain indicators. For example, with McCann, during that pitch you saw him setup the way I said, but he did a glove jingle indicating that he wanted it low. 

Either way, the execution was crap. But the strategy was also crap. You can only go to the well so much. And Hernandez isn't particularly vulnerable against curveballs. Yeah, his batting average is 50 points less than against offspeed/fastballs, but his slugging is actually better than against fastballs. Most of his home runs were hit against breaking balls. 

I get it, 2 outs, 2-2 count, but he got burnt again with 2 outs. It's been a recurring theme. And Teoscar isn't a slouch, but they got way too cute. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm just reading where he was setting up. I know everything is via PitchCom unless the pitcher specifically doesn't want it to prevent against sign stealing. But the catcher does still set up a certain way *at times* and they will also signal the pitch to be in a certain area (generally) with certain indicators. For example, with McCann, during that pitch you saw him setup the way I said, but he did a glove jingle indicating that he wanted it low. 

Either way, the execution was crap. But the strategy was also crap. You can only go to the well so much. And Hernandez isn't particularly vulnerable against curveballs. Yeah, his batting average is 50 points less than against offspeed/fastballs, but his slugging is actually better than against fastballs. Most of his home runs were hit against breaking balls. 

I get it, 2 outs, 2-2 count, but he got burnt again with 2 outs. It's been a recurring theme. And Teoscar isn't a slouch, but they got way too cute. 

1.  What catchers do with their gloves before pitches is a smokescreen most of the time.  I’ve seen catchers put their glove up high like they want a fastball up out of the zone and get a curveball low and away.

2. Maybe the reason Hernandez average is low but slugging is high is because he generally doesn’t hit a well executed curve but sends the mistakes a long way.

3.  I think we generally agree.  You can’t become too predictable whether it’s pitch type or location.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I thought it was a terrible pitch.  The irony is he had a terrific curve ball last night.  44% whiff rate, 39% CSW% on that pitch.  But when you hang one, all that goes out the window.  

80 mph and down and in to a RH hitter. I think he was sitting on that pitch. How does he stay back when Burnes has 95mph cutter?  Watch the side view...

Teoscar Hernández's three-run home run (28) | 08/28/2024 | Los Angeles Dodgers (mlb.com)