Cots Contracts weighs in on O's Payroll

[Just Regular]

Last year's 1B/DH outcomes, relative to O'Hearn's 2025 price point at $8M :

HIGHER - J. Turner 13, Joc Pederson 12.5, JD Martinez 12    (2024 OPS+ results were 114, 151 and 106)

LOWER - C. Santana 5.25, McCutchen 5, Gallo 5, Tellez 3.2    (2024 OPS+ results were 109, 105, 74 and 91)

O'Hearn had a 122 both years, despite 40 fewer OPS points, I guess making him a good anecdote for 2024's lower offense.

Stepping through this, I think O'Hearn can feel pretty confident he'll get his $8M, and maybe not budge if Elias is trying to work the angles on him.     That 12 to 5 gap last off-season was pretty sharp.

Joc Pederson looks like outdid even Santander setting up the upcoming lion's share of his career earnings.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

When does Cobb fall off the deferred books?

2032

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Last year's 1B/DH outcomes, relative to O'Hearn's 2025 price point at $8M :

HIGHER - J. Turner 13, Joc Pederson 12.5, JD Martinez 12    (2024 OPS+ results were 114, 151 and 106)

LOWER - C. Santana 5.25, McCutchen 5, Gallo 5, Tellez 3.2    (2024 OPS+ results were 109, 105, 74 and 91)

O'Hearn had a 122 both years, despite 40 fewer OPS points, I guess making him a good anecdote for 2024's lower offense.

Stepping through this, I think O'Hearn can feel pretty confident he'll get his $8M, and maybe not budge if Elias is trying to work the angles on him.     That 12 to 5 gap last off-season was pretty sharp.

Joc Pederson looks like outdid even Santander setting up the upcoming lion's share of his career earnings.

We're definitely picking up O'Hearn's option.  We're already losing Santa.  That would be too much turnover for the MOO.  O'Hearn/Mountcastle is an effective, cheap, first base platoon.  DH too.

Personally, I hope our payroll is over 200 million for next year.  I just want to win.  

[TradeAngelos]

I did an extensive 30 yr study on payrolls/World Series winners before the season I didn't post because I knew the negative responses it was going to draw. But the bottom line is the number this year was about 145m to even have any shot. Lower end teams can make playoffs, but history has shown you need at least (top 14 payroll I think) to even have a chance. Only 1 time in last 30 yrs has a team gone all the way outside of those parameters. So if you are happy with "just competing" you will be happy with the offseason. If you actually want to win a World Series, to even have a shot that number is probably going to be 150 in 2025 just guessing. And that still isn't even a good shot. It's all fun and games until you roll into the AL/NLCS or MAYBE the WS up against a 250m payroll, like Cleveland is finding out. It's not even a contest. I have the research saved but the laptop is acting up at moment so I can't access it. Not that I still wouldn't get the same negative responses anyway from the usual suspects. This idea that a young talented team can bootstrap their way to a championship without the key reliable pieces, especially deep starting pitching, is a pipe dream. But hey at least they will "compete".  

[Just Regular]

I think Cleveland got the closest when they lost to the Cubs, but one of my observations on the WS champs this century in the Moneyball era - there still is not even one running the much emulated Billy Beane smartest guy in the room cheapo playbook.

Championship caliber players in clubhouses know how their organizations conduct themselves, and it probably doesn't feel great to Gunnar Henderson when waiver claims are competing with Aroldis Chapman.

We know Rubenstein's stewardship will be some kind of better, but that book is still blank entering this offseason.    Elias does perhaps know today whether Rubenstein is game to spend say $500M or $700M on payroll the next four years.

[MijiT88]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

When does Cobb fall off the deferred books?

According to spotrac, which is the only place I can find this data is 4.5 mil for next year then he is done. NOT 2032 that is CD terrritory