After Two Weeks of Pie...

[Mackus]

The average age for Bowie last season was 25.5.

But not the average age for legit prospects.

Montanez making it wouldn't be the craziest thing ever, but its also not so likely that I want to give him an opportunity over Pie and Reimold.

He's gonna have to do more work to earn a spot than those guys, and he should, because he hasn't accomplished what those guys did in the minors.

[TyCobb]

But not the average age for legit prospects.

Montanez making it wouldn't be the craziest thing ever, but its also not so likely that I want to give him an opportunity over Pie and Reimold.

He's gonna have to do more work to earn a spot than those guys, and he should, because he hasn't accomplished what those guys did in the minors.

Melvin Mora did it.

[OrioleWay27]

Pie struck out 3 times with RISP in 7 PA. Izturis error on 4/15 against the Rangers led to 7 unearned runs. Why isn't he on you all-time most hated Orioles list?

Because Izturis has been playing gold glove quality shortstop for several years. A pretty easy answer, not sure why you would ask that question.

[Mackus]

Melvin Mora did it.

Are you not reading my posts?

[Frobby]

He should get the whole year unless he looks awful.

If he continues to look terrible for the next 6 weeks or so, then you re-evaluate but even considering it now is just absurd.

Although I agree that Pie gets more time, you really don't advance the ball by calling other people's arguments "absurd."

Fact: Pie hit .215 in 194 PAs in 2007.

Fact: Pie hit .241 in 93 PAs in 2008.

Fact: Pie hit .237 in 60+ PAs this spring.

Fact: Pie is hitting .147 in 34 PAs this season.

Fact: Pie has not been a plus in the OF so far.

Fact: Reimold and Montanez have both hit extremely well both in spring training and at Norfolk.

I do not think 34 ABs this season means it is time to pull the plug; I think your timetable is about right. But the argument for replacing Pie is becoming less "absurd" by the day, unfortunately.

[Mackus]

Because Izturis has been playing gold glove quality shortstop for several years. A pretty easy answer, not sure why you would ask that question.

So veteran players who struggle in the first two weeks should get the benefit of the doubt while young players who struggle in the first two weeks should be cut?

[Mark Carver]

Because Izturis has been playing gold glove quality shortstop for several years. A pretty easy answer, not sure why you would ask that question.

I find it interesting in that you judge someone after an all be it brief 11 games in an Orioles uniform.

[JTrea81]

Why lose the opportunity before finding out for sure?

Only people with zero patience and a complete lack of understanding would write him off after 13 games. Nobody is claiming that he is definitely going to make it. I hate the hyperbole that the "dump Pie" crowd on here, which is much smaller in size than it is in boisterousness, throws around. Everybody who wants him to have a chance realizes that there is a very realistic probability of him not making it. But we also realize the upside of him making it. He's got a ton of talent, and was well-regarded as a prospect for obvious reasons. He's also not blocking anybody who should be getting the sort of tryout he is getting. Montanez doesn't deserve it given his history and Reimold isn't ready yet (ideally he gets at least 3 months at AAA).

He's not harming us in any way right now. Who cares if he struggles? We're not winning anything this year. Everybody in the offseason seems fine with the "we're not gonna win but we're gonna find out about a lot of our young guys" plan but as soon as the season starts and we actually start losing, people freak out. That is the type of reaction that leads to GMs signing guys like Baez and Payton. People thinking that somehow winning 82 games with expensive mediocre veterans is better than winning 72 with young guys that are developing towards something better.

I want to see the future just like you, only it's not Pie but Reimold and Montanez. I want to find out about them and give them a full season in MLB because they've earned that chance.

You say Reimold's not ready but he's 25 and crushing the ball in AAA and had a good ST. What more does he have to prove?

Montanez had a good stint when he was up here last year. His only problem was defensively and he's improved that quite a bit from all reports.

[Mackus]

But the argument for replacing Pie is becoming less "absurd" by the day, unfortunately.

I disagree with this.

I think anybody who wanted to give Pie a legit chance that now thinks his opportunity should be taken away from him is completely wrong and lacks any sort of patience and understanding that sometimes players don't start the season hitting great all the time.

You either wanted to give him a legit chance and you still do, or you never did at all. The "option" of having wanted to give him a legit chance, and thinking that these 13 games were enough of a chance, isn't really a legitimate opinion to have, IMO.

[TyCobb]

Are you not reading my posts?

I actually did read it wrong the first time. I thought you said it "would be the craziest". Too late to delete it.

[Fan4Life]

But not the average age for legit prospects.

Montanez making it wouldn't be the craziest thing ever, but its also not so likely that I want to give him an opportunity over Pie and Reimold.

He's gonna have to do more work to earn a spot than those guys, and he should, because he hasn't accomplished what those guys did in the minors.

Isn't Hamilton and Scott examples of a players that bloomed late? I agree the "odds" say Montanez isn't likely to be an everyday player. But, we would have said that about Scott and Hamilton when they were 26 and hadn't shown much. I know Hamilton had issues with drugs, but the point remains.

[Mackus]

I want to see the future just like you, only it's not Pie but Reimold and Montanez. I want to find out about them and give them a full season in MLB because they've earned that chance.

You say Reimold's not ready but he's 25 and crushing the ball in AAA and had a good ST. What more does he have to prove?

Montanez had a good stint when he was up here last year. His only problem was defensively and he's improved that quite a bit from all reports.

13 games don't prove anything from anybody! They don't prove Pie is a bust, they don't prove Reimold is gonna be great, they don't prove Wieters isn't ready, they don't prove that Snyder is back on the prospect map.

None of the early season results do anything but give you a good feeling about guys that start hot and a bad feeling about guys that start cold.

How do you not understand that? Changing your opinions about anybody this quickly into the season is simple schizophrenia.

[OrioleWay27]

I find it interesting in that you judge someone after an all be it brief 11 games in an Orioles uniform.

I judge him based on what he's actually done in the past. He is a player who can't replicate his minor league success in the major leagues. He has no plate discipline. We have to options in the outfield who deserve a look, especially since Pie is costing us runs offensively AND defensively.

If this guy was so good, why would the Cubs give up on him for a low-end pitching prospect they didn't even keep?

[DrungoHazewood]

Because Montanez is 27, you can't see him as a starter in the major leagues, despite his winning the triple crown at AA, raking the AAA pitching so far, and doing well in his major league debut? That's silly. Melvin Mora made his major league debut at age 27, and didn't really begin to hit well until he was 31. Some players develop later than others.

-Larrytt

We can't say with any certainty that Montanez is just a 4th outfielder. Not until he goes out and plays. But we can say that the majority of players with careers like Luis Montanez ended up as bench players, if that.

This is exactly what PECOTA does - it finds similar players. And it thinks the players most similar to Montanez are:

Barry Bonnell, '82 - good platoon player in '83, never had a 100 OPS+ otherwise

Larry Littleton, '81 - cup of coffee with the Indians

Sean Berry, '93 - pretty good platoon player for 3-4 years

Glenn Wilson, '86 - .704 major league OPS in career defined by his cannon of an arm.

Tim Costo, '96 - .610 MLB OPS, with a few .800+ seasons in the high minors later on.

Vernon Wells, '06 - ok, that would be nice, but kind of odd comp since Wells was in the majors at 20 and is a good OFer.

Gary Gaetti, '86 - that would be good, too, even if Gaetti had one of the stranger careers ever.

Scott Bryant/Dave Gallagher/Mark Lewis - journeymen

Tim Hulett - yes, that Tim Hulett

The list goes on, but that's a fair sampling. His top comps are platoon players with occasional brushes with being pretty decent players. I guess you could hope for Wells or Gaetti's careers from age 27 or 28 on, and that would be great. But Montanez doesn't have half the defensive chops of either of those guys.

I'm fine with getting Montanez up here and giving him a few hundred at bats in place of a guy like Freel. But I have no expectation of him as anything more than a platoon player with a bad glove.

[larrytt]

I don't think he'll hit well enough to hold down a starting role. He had fantastic numbers at AA last season, but he was so much older than the average player in that league that you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt.

I don't understand how age affects the value of your stats. If a guy can hit, he can hit, no matter what his age is. The only down side is that a player who starts his major league career late like Montanez (and Mora and many others) aren't going to have 15-year careers. This is offset by the fact that he's got a lot more baseball experience at this point than younger rookies, and so will adapt to the majors more quickly - as Montanez was doing last year. If a player shouldn't be a starter because he's 27 or older, there goes most of the O's lineup!

He'll have to take a spot away from someone else.

That's true of anyone who makes a roster spot, and so makes no difference here.

If he would have had the same sort of minor league success, at relevant ages, as Pie and Reimold he would have gotten that type of opportunity. But he didn't, so now his road to the majors will be a more arduous one.

Just like Mora's and many others. Relevant ages count only while a player is trying to prove himself at the minor league level; Montanez took a long time, but he's done that. I remember people had Mora pegged as a utility player, and even after he put up .921 and .981 OPS's, because he didn't have success until after age 30. There are so many other examples. The whole point of the minors is to let players show what they can do. If being the best hitter in AA, and now tearing up AAA, isn't showing he's good enough, what does he have to do, bat .600? He did far better in his debut at the major league level than just about any O's rookie in many years, including of course Markakis and Jones.

I'm sorry, but I simply can't agree that a player who hits really well at age 27 can't be any more than a 4th outfielder. He's proven himself and earned his shot. The only reason not to give him this shot is not because he's 27, but because we also have others who have earned a shot (i.e. Pie and Reinhold), and there's only one LF spot open on the O's (currently taken by Pie).

-Larrytt