What is Law's guess?

[Greg Pappas]

I'm a bit disappointed with Keith Law.

I'm noticing a trend with him... as it seems he throws out common sense and decides that because a scouting director flies to see a specific player play, then they might just want him far higher than his value would indicate. Tony Sanchez to the Pirates at #4? C/mon Law. It's almost like he wishes to be the first to guess at every possibility, so that he can claim to have been in the know.

I respect Law, but his level of credibilty has taken a bit of a hit in my view. Perhaps he's right, perhaps Tony Sanchez goes to Pittsburgh at four and the fans storm the front office with torches and pitchforks... but I find Law's train of thought to be derailed.

[allstar1579]

I'm a bit disappointed with Keith Law.

I'm noticing a trend with him... as it seems he throws out common sense and decides that because a scouting director flies to see a specific player play, then they might just want him far higher than his value would indicate. Tony Sanchez to the Pirates at #4? C/mon Law. It's almost like he wishes to be the first to guess at every possibility, so that he can claim to have been in the know.

I respect Law, but his level of credibilty has taken a bit of a hit in my view. Perhaps he's right, perhaps Tony Sanchez goes to Pittsburgh at four and the fans storm the front office with torches and pitchforks... but I find Law's train of thought to be derailed.

That's what I was saying the other day. I lost all respect for him after the last batch. People just think he knows what he's talking about because of his reputation, but I'm not impressed. Instead of just throwing spitballs at the draft board and seeing what sticks he should stick to the old proverb "it's better to keep quiet and thought of as an idiot than to talk and remove all doubt of it".

[Hutman]

Here is Law's current top 10 from this weekend:

Washington -- San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg

Seattle -- St. Paul Saints RHP Tanner Scheppers

San Diego -- UNC CF/1B Dustin Ackley

Pittsburgh -- Boston College C Tony Sanchez

Baltimore -- Ft. Worth Cats RHP Aaron Crow

San Francisco -- Sacramento State CF Tim Wheeler

Atlanta -- UNC RHP Alex White

Cincinnati -- Capistrano Valley HS (Calif.) LHP Tyler Matzek

Detroit -- Westminster Christian Academy (Mo.) RHP Jacob Turner

Washington -- Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson

Interesting.

[Duke2010]

Here is Law's current top 10 from this weekend:

Washington -- San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg

Seattle -- St. Paul Saints RHP Tanner Scheppers

San Diego -- UNC CF/1B Dustin Ackley

Pittsburgh -- Boston College C Tony Sanchez

Baltimore -- Ft. Worth Cats RHP Aaron Crow

San Francisco -- Sacramento State CF Tim Wheeler

Atlanta -- UNC RHP Alex White

Cincinnati -- Capistrano Valley HS (Calif.) LHP Tyler Matzek

Detroit -- Westminster Christian Academy (Mo.) RHP Jacob Turner

Washington -- Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson

Interesting.

I like that he has us getting Crow, but I don't see this happening.

[JCK]

Law's predictions carry weight with me because, being a former executive, and working for ESPN, he is well-connected. But everyone and their mother has the M's taking Ackley, so unless he knows someone very special, these mocks seem hard to believe.

[waroriole]

Is it a foregone conclusion that Green is not worthy of a top 5 pick?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Strictly from reading reports, absolutely no insider knowledge, I wonder if Crow and Scheppers may be separating themselves from the pack, lining up behind Strasburg and Ackley at the top of most boards.

This would make sense, especially if the top HS pitchers are floating slot-plus signing demands. Crow and Scheppers are big time arms, AND they're projectable, AND they should be signable.

[Greg Pappas]

Is it a foregone conclusion that Green is not worthy of a top 5 pick?

I still believe in Green, and no one should scoff at his inclusion in the top five. His stock took a hit this year, but he could be a very good ML SS in two-three years.

[JTrea81]

Crow and Scheppers are big time arms, AND they're projectable, AND they should be signable.

But both carry big injury risks. I'd rather sign the player that is safer but may cost me a little more in a signing bonus. The Orioles can't afford to have any more first round picks bust if they want to catch the AL East elite. The draft is the major pipeline of talent for this team because of their refusal to go after top amateur Latin talent and lack of big time trade chips.

[Arthur_Bryant]

But both carry big injury risks. I'd rather sign the player that is safer but may cost me a little more in a signing bonus. The Orioles can't afford to have any more first round picks bust if they want to catch the AL East elite. The draft is the major pipeline of talent for this team because of their refusal to go after top amateur Latin talent and lack of big time trade chips.

Well, if Scheppers and Crow are separating themselves from the rest of the pack, they won't be available for the O's anyway. That was sort of the point of the post.

[allstar1579]

Law's predictions carry weight with me because, being a former executive, and working for ESPN, he is well-connected. But everyone and their mother has the M's taking Ackley, so unless he knows someone very special, these mocks seem hard to believe.

That is the only reason people read them, they assume because he works for ESPN and has all these connections that he knows who is going where, the thing is, no one in any sport leaks who they are going to take unless they do it themselves. (Nats and Strasburg)

Look at Mel Kiper, awesome at his job, but he never knows who anyone is taking, because people just don't give that info up. He just makes educated guesses, which Law is trying to do, but it's coming out as more of a guess than anything educated.

[crawdad]

That is the only reason people read them, they assume because he works for ESPN and has all these connections that he knows who is going where, the thing is, no one in any sport leaks who they are going to take unless they do it themselves. (Nats and Strasburg)

Look at Mel Kiper, awesome at his job, but he never knows who anyone is taking, because people just don't give that info up. He just makes educated guesses, which Law is trying to do, but it's coming out as more of a guess than anything educated.

Maybe Law is just being more transparent with his mocks. As in . . . he knows mocks are relatively worthless, so he makes worthless mocks.

[allstar1579]

Maybe Law is just being more transparent with his mocks. As in . . . he knows mocks are relatively worthless, so he makes worthless mocks.

I would love for that to be the case, a little tongue-in-cheek humor. But the point remains that he's putting his name on these things and publishing them, why not just mock the mocks and be done with it?

[crawdad]

I would love for that to be the case, a little tongue-in-cheek humor. But the point remains that he's putting his name on these things and publishing them, why not just mock the mocks and be done with it?

Yeah, the only thing I can think he might be doing (because he isn't dumb) is that for each pick he sees maybe 3 or 4 guys a team can take. So, instead of saying . . . well, Baltimore is going to select an advanced, projectible arm . . . instead, he just picks Aaron Crow who is supposed to represent the group of pitchers who are advanced and projectible. Similarly, when the Pirates overdraft a guy on the cheap . . . he is really just a representative of a group of guys Law thinks the Pirates would overdraft in order to save money for Sano.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, the only thing I can think he might be doing (because he isn't dumb) is that for each pick he sees maybe 3 or 4 guys a team can take. So, instead of saying . . . well, Baltimore is going to select an advanced, projectible arm . . . instead, he just picks Aaron Crow who is supposed to represent the group of pitchers who are advanced and projectible. Similarly, when the Pirates overdraft a guy on the cheap . . . he is really just a representative of a group of guys Law thinks the Pirates would overdraft in order to save money for Sano.

I could see that happening. I mean I refuse the believe the guy is really dumb, Kurkjian talks very highly of him (I've talked to him a couple times). I just can't wrap my head around some of these picks unless like you said he's just playing around on purpose. It makes no sense to me to project a guy that should be going in the 20-30 range at #4. PIT said the other day that their international fund and Rule 4 draft were separate funds and signing Sano wouldn't impact who they signed at #4 in any way.

I will expect his mock come next weekend to be a lot closer to things since it's so close to the draft and he might actually start hearing whispers from his contacts.

I do know that I am very underwhelmed with the Law/Churchill duo covering the draft, but most of that is from my absolute distaste for Churchill.