Snyder: better hitter than Reimold?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, scouting-wise sell me on Snyder as a 300/360/500 bat then?

Well, that shouldn't be too hard: Lyle Overbay. Early in his career, with the annual 25% LD rate, Overbay was a .825-.880 OPS guy.

Snyder profiles pretty similarly, no?

Like Overbay, wild swings in BABIP would create some variation.

[RVAbird]

Reimold's projection there is nowhere near optimistic. Thats pretty much where he was this year. Snyder's I dont see how, hes a better pure hitter than Reimold with a better hit tool. His ceiling consists of a batter with a higher batting average than Reimold, with a less ability to achieve that ceiling due to him lacking the discipline, but plain and simply, if Reimold can hit .290 in the ML, I see no reason that Snyder cannot hit .290 to .310 with .310 being a career year. And 25 HRs is very feasible from him as well, he has more power than he showed at Norfolk. He shows plus power in Bowie and in the AFL twice now but his power is still judged by his cramped Norfolk stint.

I try to temper my enthusiasm with these guys, but with Snyder, I feel in my gut that hes better than many folks think....Not me being optimistic, its me being confident in how I feel about Snyder. Everyone has guys they like more or less than most, hes a guy I like more than most....

Unless you see Reimold getting 850-900 PA a season, that's not what he was on pace for. More like a solid 25 HR.

Your projection for Snyder is probably his ceiling IMO. I'd have him more in the .280-.300 range with 20ish HR and very mediocre walk rates, but to each his own. You can't tell a whole lot about the guys by describing them in terms of AVG/HR. While I see Snyder hitting around 20 HR per season, I'd also include a good 40 doubles.

I'd project Snyder's slash stats between .280/.330/.440 and .300/.370/.500 (I know it's a fairly wide range but he's got a lot of question marks and his skillset suggests variance from year to year), averaging a .290/.355/.480 line.

I see Reimold between .260/.330/.450 and .280/.380/.520 (wide variance due to questions with contact rate), averaging a .270/.360/.480 line.

[Lucky Jim]

Unless you see Reimold getting 850-900 PA a season, that's not what he was on pace for. More like a solid 25 HR.

Your projection for Snyder is probably his ceiling IMO. I'd have him more in the .280-.300 range with 20ish HR and very mediocre walk rates, but to each his own. You can't tell a whole lot about the guys by describing them in terms of AVG/HR. While I see Snyder hitting around 20 HR per season, I'd also include a good 40 doubles.

I'd project Snyder's slash stats between .280/.330/.440 and .300/.370/.500 (I know it's a fairly wide range but he's got a lot of question marks and his skillset suggests variance from year to year), averaging a .290/.355/.480 line.

I see Reimold between .260/.330/.450 and .280/.380/.520 (wide variance due to questions with contact rate), averaging a .270/.360/.480 line.

I think we largely agree about Snyder, though I do see the potential for more upside in BA. Which would drive everything else up close to Reimold's upside.

[QBsILLEST1]

Well, scouting-wise sell me on Snyder as a 300/360/500 bat then?

He has improved at every level since recovering from injury. He led his team in BA as I believe the youngest on his team in the AFL and it included many more highly regarded prospects, including I believe 3 corner IF prospects who were rated higher. He has atleast a plus hit tool with the ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. He has been steadily improving his discipline as he matures and has also shown his since AFL 08. He as excellent intangibles and is a very hard worker who is smart enough to make adjustments and learns from his adjustments whether they were right or wrong. After the labral injury he could have folded up and crumbled, but he showed resilience and has brought his prospect status back from the abyss.

I personally believe he wont have as easy of a transition from AAA to the MLB as Reimold did, but Reimold did in the ML basically what he had done his entire MiL career part of that is his pitch recognition and discipline. Snyder's isnt as good as Nolan's but I think itll be good enough to show us something we like in Baltimore in 2010.

Biggest thing that I admittedly do not know and that is Snyder's pitch recogntion. Not discipline, but recognition.....

[RVAbird]

I think we largely agree about Snyder, though I do see the potential for more upside in BA. Which would drive everything else up close to Reimold's upside.

True, he does have the potential to be a .300+ hitter. It will be very interesting to see how he adjusts in the big leagues. He's a big wildcard in my eyes.

It's pretty exciting to think that a prospect who was largely written off on the national level and certainly discounted at the local level just a couple of years ago has turned his career around so quickly (now a 23 year old on the verge of cracking the big leagues with a spot waiting for him and the potential to make some runs at a batting title).

He may not show enough patience or hit with enough power to hold down a starting first base job for his career, but the kid definitely knows how to hit.

[Lucky Jim]

True, he does have the potential to be a .300+ hitter. It will be very interesting to see how he adjusts in the big leagues. He's a big wildcard in my eyes.

It's pretty exciting to think that a prospect who was largely written off on the national level and certainly discounted at the local level just a couple of years ago has turned his career around so quickly (now a 23 year old on the verge of cracking the big leagues with a spot waiting for him and the potential to make some runs at a batting title).

He may not show enough patience or hit with enough power to hold down a starting first base job for his career, but the kid definitely knows how to hit.

He's a rare prospect in the respect that he legitimately inspires optimism (the hit tool is great) and legitimately warrants pessimism (so many questions).

I really like the kid. And I'm willing to give him every chance to show or fail.

[crawdad]

He has improved at every level since recovering from injury. He led his team in BA as I believe the youngest on his team in the AFL and it included many more highly regarded prospects, including I believe 3 corner IF prospects who were rated higher. He has atleast a plus hit tool with the ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. He has been steadily improving his discipline as he matures and has also shown his since AFL 08. He as excellent intangibles and is a very hard worker who is smart enough to make adjustments and learns from his adjustments whether they were right or wrong. After the labral injury he could have folded up and crumbled, but he showed resilience and has brought his prospect status back from the abyss.

I personally believe he wont have as easy of a transition from AAA to the MLB as Reimold did, but Reimold did in the ML basically what he had done his entire MiL career part of that is his pitch recognition and discipline. Snyder's isnt as good as Nolan's but I think itll be good enough to show us something we like in Baltimore in 2010.

Biggest thing that I admittedly do not know and that is Snyder's pitch recogntion. Not discipline, but recognition.....

Yeah, but scouting-wise sell him to me.

[QBsILLEST1]

Unless you see Reimold getting 850-900 PA a season, that's not what he was on pace for. More like a solid 25 HR.

Your projection for Snyder is probably his ceiling IMO. I'd have him more in the .280-.300 range with 20ish HR and very mediocre walk rates, but to each his own. You can't tell a whole lot about the guys by describing them in terms of AVG/HR. While I see Snyder hitting around 20 HR per season, I'd also include a good 40 doubles.

I'd project Snyder's slash stats between .280/.330/.440 and .300/.370/.500 (I know it's a fairly wide range but he's got a lot of question marks and his skillset suggests variance from year to year), averaging a .290/.355/.480 line.

I see Reimold between .260/.330/.450 and .280/.380/.520 (wide variance due to questions with contact rate), averaging a .270/.360/.480 line.

He would need 850 PA to hit 30 HRs? He was on pace for 25 this year with a torn achillies tendon in his rookie season. Personally I expect our rookies to improve as they get more experience. 30+ HR power is more than feasible for him. As for his batting average he will hit somewhere between .270 and .290. I dont see that as disputable.

As for Snyder, you say he may be able to reach .300, so you think me saying he can hit .310 is way optimistic? He does have a huge range due to questions, but he certainly has the ability to be an annual .300 hitter and annual .300 hitters will occasionally cross .310.

Reimold is not as good a hitter as Snyder, and Reimold is going to come very close to hitting .300 some seasons probably. And by .290 I consider that close, so my projections I do not believe are that optimistic. I think he will be somewhere around .300.....Just in my gut I feel hes gonna be good....

[Hank Scorpio]

http://masnsports.com/2009/10/snyder-on-his-struggles-at-nor.html

[alexei606]

FWIW, Keith Law in his chat stated that he "liked Snyder's swing a lot, but is not sold on his power". I voted Reimold because I like his skill set better, but, I really like Snyder and hope he continues to improve and shut up those nay sayers.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yeah, but scouting-wise sell him to me.

Im not a scout....But Ill do my best here....

He squares up on the ball really well though his swing can be long at times. It seems as though when he is hot and hitting his best IMO his swing seems to be more compact. Its when he starts to slump that he tries to do too much and when he loads he seems to close his upper half more than normal, thus making his swing a bit longer. Also, as we know, when he is hitting the ball well his discipline is basically non-existent. His pitch recognition has improved but still needs improvement.

Back to him being able to square up consistently, even when he was slumping in Norfolk, he had a very good LD% of I believe 27%. He rarely pops out and normally carries a pretty high BAPBIP. His natural swing induces a ton of opposite field LDs.

IMO his biggest thing will be recognizing the breaking stuff. While his BB did increase at Bowie this year, his K's also increased. This can be attriubted to 1 of 2 things, either 1 he was working on being more disciplined so he took more pitches thus putting him in more 2 strike counts, or 2 AA is a level of transition of which the pitchers have much better secondaries and his recognition of the breaking pitches didnt improve therefore he Kd more. Once he got to Norfolk, the K's got even mroe plentiful, but this can also be attributed to his swing getting long there from him trying to do too much.

All in all, with better pitch recognition skills and his ability to make hard consistent contact and induce a good LD% as well as a good BAPBIP, he could most certainly be a .300 hitter with atleast a .360 OBP type discipline. His swing will create some good opposite field HR power in 25 HR range IMO as well as a ton of doubles.....He doesnt get a ton of backspin on his batted balls, but he does connect a good bit as well. But, he wont hit many HRs not because he doesnt have the power, because he does, he just doesnt get much loft. If he changed his swing to induce more HRs, his batting average would take a hit and his LD% would go down and his fly ball % would increase, but it would probably be more beneficial for him to remain a LD hitter with occasional power...in the 20-25HR mold....

As a disclaimer, I could sell you more easily on a pitcher rather than hitter, I know mroe about pitching and the mechanics and what it takes to be successful than hitting.....Hitting never was my forte

[RVAbird]

Reimold's projection there is nowhere near optimistic. Thats pretty much where he was this year. Snyder's I dont see how, hes a better pure hitter than Reimold with a better hit tool. His ceiling consists of a batter with a higher batting average than Reimold, with a less ability to achieve that ceiling due to him lacking the discipline, but plain and simply, if Reimold can hit .290 in the ML, I see no reason that Snyder cannot hit .290 to .310 with .310 being a career year. And 25 HRs is very feasible from him as well, he has more power than he showed at Norfolk. He shows plus power in Bowie and in the AFL twice now but his power is still judged by his cramped Norfolk stint.

I try to temper my enthusiasm with these guys, but with Snyder, I feel in my gut that hes better than many folks think....Not me being optimistic, its me being confident in how I feel about Snyder. Everyone has guys they like more or less than most, hes a guy I like more than most....

He would need 850 PA to hit 30 HRs? He was on pace for 25 this year with a torn achillies tendon in his rookie season. Personally I expect our rookies to improve as they get more experience. 30+ HR power is more than feasible for him. As for his batting average he will hit somewhere between .270 and .290. I dont see that as disputable.

As for Snyder, you say he may be able to reach .300, so you think me saying he can hit .310 is way optimistic? He does have a huge range due to questions, but he certainly has the ability to be an annual .300 hitter and annual .300 hitters will occasionally cross .310.

Reimold is not as good a hitter as Snyder, and Reimold is going to come very close to hitting .300 some seasons probably. And by .290 I consider that close, so my projections I do not believe are that optimistic. I think he will be somewhere around .300.....Just in my gut I feel hes gonna be good....

But that's not what you said. Nor is it what I said. You said that a 30+ HR projection was pretty much where he was this year. I said he was on pace for 25 HR. That's all. If we're saying Reimold's projection is pretty much what you saw this year, let's call it truthfully - a .275/.365./.470 type hitter with 25 HR.

If you want to say that he projects out better than he was this year, go ahead and say it. My only problem is your tendency to take what you've seen and stretch it a little bit. 25 HRs are not 30+ HRs, 90-93 MPH with the fastball is not mid-nineties, etc.

I don't mean to come off as snarky or aggressive with this post, so I'm sorry if it comes across that way. All I was trying to say was that Reimold was not a 30+ HR hitter this season. He hit 15 in 411 PA, aided in part by a streak of HRs early in his season.

[QBsILLEST1]

But that's not what you said. Nor is it what I said. You said that a 30+ HR projection was pretty much where he was this year. I said he was on pace for 25 HR. That's all. If we're saying Reimold's projection is pretty much what you saw this year, let's call it truthfully - a .275/.365./.470 type hitter with 25 HR.

If you want to say that he projects out better than he was this year, go ahead and say it. My only problem is your tendency to take what you've seen and stretch it a little bit. 25 HRs are not 30+ HRs, 90-93 MPH with the fastball is not mid-nineties, etc.

I don't mean to come off as snarky or aggressive with this post, so I'm sorry if it comes across that way. All I was trying to say was that Reimold was not a 30+ HR hitter this season.

I said hes a 30+ HR hitter, which he is. I didnt say in 2009 he was a 30+ HR hitter, he projects to hit around 30 and possibly better sometimes. When prospects come up, sometimes they have career years their first year and fade, but most actual "prospects" get better as they mature and if someone hits 20 HRs this year you could normally expect more.

Its not stretchign it to expect a guy with plus power who was on pace for 25 HRs this year to hit 30, not a stretch at all. Is it a stretch to consider Matusz a possible #1/2 tpye SP even though he performed like a #3/4 SP this year? no, thats projection.

And when I used to say a guy threw in the mid 90's, it was a misinterpretation. If someone sits in the low 90's and touches mid 90's I used to make the mistake of saying "XX throws in the mid 90's", which he does, but it misleads readers into thinking he consistently throws mid 90's. Its not me stretching anything, its a mistake on how Im implying it for others to view......I now will say,"XX sits in the low 90's and can touch 95". Or,"XX flashes a plus changeup", rather than "XX has a plus changeup".

Furthermore, Ive been tyring to temper my enthusiasm lately as far as projections and ceilings go, but I guess once I make the mistake too often in the past, itll continue to pop up in the future no matter what I do or say.....

[RVAbird]

I said hes a 30+ HR hitter, which he is. I didnt say in 2009 he was a 30+ HR hitter, he projects to hit around 30 and possibly better sometimes. When prospects come up, sometimes they have career years their first year and fade, but most actual "prospects" get better as they mature and if someone hits 20 HRs this year you could normally expect more.

Its not stretchign it to expect a guy with plus power who was on pace for 25 HRs this year to hit 30, not a stretch at all. Is it a stretch to consider Matusz a possible #1/2 tpye SP even though he performed like a #3/4 SP this year? no, thats projection.

And when I used to say a guy threw in the mid 90's, it was a misinterpretation. If someone sits in the low 90's and touches mid 90's I used to make the mistake of saying "XX throws in the mid 90's", which he does, but it misleads readers into thinking he consistently throws mid 90's. Its not me stretching anything, its a mistake on how Im implying it for others to view......I now will say,"XX sits in the low 90's and can touch 95". Or,"XX flashes a plus changeup", rather than "XX has a plus changeup".

Furthermore, Ive been tyring to temper my enthusiasm lately as far as projections and ceilings go, but I guess once I make the mistake too often in the past, itll continue to pop up in the future no matter what I do or say.....

Sorry QB, I didn't mean to attack you. I appreciate your opinions and enjoy discussing prospects with you. We're just communicating different things in this thread.