Snyder: better hitter than Reimold?

[Lucky Jim]

Snyder finished in Norfolk with 14 BBs in his last 138 PA covering August and Sept - a rate of 10.1%. I do not feel that it's a big leap for Snyder to maintain that rate or better next year.

(Note there is a wide difference in Snyder's BB rate at home and away while at Norfolk last year - something like 15% v 5%.)

All I said was the "if" is big. In other words, your equivalence is completely conditional. Thus, the "if" is "big."

Whether or not it's a big leap (you say no, I say, I don't know) isn't what makes the "if" big.

[Frobby]

All I said was the "if" is big. In other words, your equivalence is completely conditional. Thus, the "if" is "big."

Whether or not it's a big leap (you say no, I say, I don't know) isn't what makes the "if" big.

This is getting boring, let's move on.

To me the more intersting question is what kind of HR totals is Snyder going to put up. I could see him being a 16-23 HR guy like Markakis has been, but I also could see him as a 28-30 HR guy. If it's the former, I expect him to be a 45-double guy like Markakis is. If it's the latter, he's probably a 35-double guy.

[crawdad]

This is getting boring, let's move on.

To me the more intersting question is what kind of HR totals is Snyder going to put up. I could see him being a 16-23 HR guy like Markakis has been, but I also could see him as a 28-30 HR guy. If it's the former, I expect him to be a 45-double guy like Markakis is. If it's the latter, he's probably a 35-double guy.

Yeah, with Snyder's swing . . . I just don't see the plus power coming on. He has a very nice swing and with some adjustments, he could be a good hitter. Maybe not enough to start though. Although our experience with Millar and Huff have made us set the bar low, typically, 1B needs a pretty special bat.

[Lucky Jim]

Yeah, with Snyder's swing . . . I just don't see the plus power coming on. He has a very nice swing and with some adjustments, he could be a good hitter. Maybe not enough to start though. Although our experience with Millar and Huff have made us set the bar low, typically, 1B needs a pretty special bat.

How much did you watch him this year, Craw?

Let me clarify: I'm not asking you to validate your opinion. I asked Stotle the same thing earlier. It's more that I'm curious of the extent to which prior determinations about players have an anchoring effect, and in general about how we evaluate a moving target - i.e., players who are (hopefully) developing as prospects and thereby making prior scouting/analysis obsolete over time.

Clearly, Snyder's numbers at AA were huge. And his 27% LD percentage at AAA speaks to some pretty good fundamentals.

[crawdad]

How much did you watch him this year, Craw?

Let me clarify: I'm not asking you to validate your opinion. I asked Stotle the same thing earlier. It's more that I'm curious of the extent to which prior determinations about players have an anchoring effect, and in general about how we evaluate a moving target - i.e., players who are (hopefully) developing as prospects and thereby making prior scouting/analysis obsolete over time.

Clearly, Snyder's numbers at AA were huge. And his 27% LD percentage at AAA speaks to some pretty good fundamentals.

Three games at Bowie . . . none at Norfolk.

[Stotle]

I prefer Reimold. I generally agree with most of the sentiments in this thread regarding the differences and similarities between the two. I think Reimold has a decisive edge in raw power. I think Snyder may make more hard contact. I have only seen video of Snyder this year, but still see him living gap-to-gap at the ML level and popping 11 to 20 homeruns per with an occasional spike to the 21-25 range.

Looking at his combined numbers, it wouldn't shock me to see that as a seasonal line for him at the ML level (but bump the counting stats a tad to get him to a full ML-season's worth of games:

.289/.362/.460, 15 HR, 45 2B, 4 3B, 63 BB, 130 SO

I could see him cutting down a little on the strikeouts, but not a huge improvement without overhauling his approach -- and I'd be hesitant to cut down his aggressiveness too much. Would I want that line at 1B? I don't know, I guess it depends on the rest of the team. To be clear, this is just his combined line from this year, not a specific projection from me. But I don't think it looks too crazy.

[Stotle]

How much did you watch him this year, Craw?

Let me clarify: I'm not asking you to validate your opinion. I asked Stotle the same thing earlier. It's more that I'm curious of the extent to which prior determinations about players have an anchoring effect, and in general about how we evaluate a moving target - i.e., players who are (hopefully) developing as prospects and thereby making prior scouting/analysis obsolete over time.

Clearly, Snyder's numbers at AA were huge. And his 27% LD percentage at AAA speaks to some pretty good fundamentals.

Not Craw, but I don't see much difference in his mechanics this year as opposed to last. I didn't see him in person -- only on video, both at Bowie and Norfolk. Also, with regards to the bolded, that may be a concern, but I'm more wary of the expectation that some seem to have that a player is destined to improve in various facets of the game simply by growing older and gaining experience. Many times it's true, and many times there are limits to what a player can do and how far they can develop.

[Lucky Jim]

Not Craw, but I don't see much difference in his mechanics this year as opposed to last. I didn't see him in person -- only on video, both at Bowie and Norfolk. Also, with regards to the bolded, that may be a concern, but I'm more wary of the expectation that some seem to have that a player is destined to improve in various facets of the game simply by growing older and gaining experience. Many times it's true, and many times there are limits to what a player can do and how far they can develop.

Yes. I agree. I don't want to seem like I'm being nit-picky, because that's not my intent. And I was basically arguing that exact thing w/r/t Snyder's patience and discipline.

I really am simply curious about what it takes to revise an opinion. As for me, I think your projection is close to what I've been saying. Though I think that Snyder may - but only may - provide a higher OPS based on an elevated BA. I get that there's going to be some variation, but I can see spike years where he bats over .300 and thus elevates into the .850-.900 range.

I think his 2Bs might be a little lower, based on footspeed, Camden, and better OF. I agree 100% on his HRs.

[Stotle]

Yes. I agree. I don't want to seem like I'm being nit-picky, because that's not my intent. And I was basically arguing that exact thing w/r/t Snyder's patience and discipline.

I really am simply curious about what it takes to revise an opinion. As for me, I think your projection is close to what I've been saying. Though I think that Snyder may - but only may - provide a higher OPS based on an elevated BA. I get that there's going to be some variation, but I can see spike years where he bats over .300 and thus elevates into the .850-.900 range.

I think his 2Bs might be a little lower, based on footspeed, Camden, and better OF. I agree 100% on his HRs.

One thing that helps his doubles cause is the authority with which he hits the ball. A lot of MiL can lose doubles as the climb the ladder because of the better defenders. The harder you hit the ball, the more likely you are to keep putting it between the OFs. That said, I generally agree with your statement. Just pointing out something that might help Snyder maintain that rate.

[wickedwitch]

I was encouraged by Snyder's improved walk rate. If a player is still showing improvement in an area, it seems reasonable to think he might continue to improve in this area. I'd be less optimistic if he had stopped improving in this area.

[QBsILLEST1]

Last year, if I recall, Tony ranked Brandon Snyder one rung above Nolan Reimold on the prospect list. Since then, Reimold had a tremendous 6 weeks in AAA and a successful major league debut. Snyder, who is three years younger, hit very well in the AFL last fall in limited AB's (outhitting Reimold and Wieters), posted awesome numbers at Bowie, struggled mightily at Norfolk but is now showing good form in the early going in the AFL. So, as a major leaguer, will Snyder be a better hitter than Reimold?

I say yes. Reimold has more patience and power, but Snyder just seems to have an uncanny ability to square up on the ball and hit everything hard. I'm still puzzled by what Snyder did at Norfolk last year, but I'm convinced that was a fluke.

Thoughts?

IMO it depends on what you consider a better hitter, a guy with excellent OB skills, the ability to hit .270-.290 with 30+ HRs

or

The guy who can hit .280-.310 with the ability to hit 25+ HRs and slightly lesser OBP skills.

Its pretty even...Snyder is the better pure hitter while Reimold is more of the "complete package" IMO.

[crawdad]

IMO it depends on what you consider a better hitter, a guy with excellent OB skills, the ability to hit .270-.290 with 30+ HRs

or

The guy who can hit .280-.310 with the ability to hit 25+ HRs and slightly lesser OBP skills.

Its pretty even...Snyder is the better pure hitter while Reimold is more of the "complete package" IMO.

Looks like an optimistic read on their futures, particularly Snyder.

[QBsILLEST1]

Looks like an optimistic read on their futures, particularly Snyder.

Reimold's projection there is nowhere near optimistic. Thats pretty much where he was this year. Snyder's I dont see how, hes a better pure hitter than Reimold with a better hit tool. His ceiling consists of a batter with a higher batting average than Reimold, with a less ability to achieve that ceiling due to him lacking the discipline, but plain and simply, if Reimold can hit .290 in the ML, I see no reason that Snyder cannot hit .290 to .310 with .310 being a career year. And 25 HRs is very feasible from him as well, he has more power than he showed at Norfolk. He shows plus power in Bowie and in the AFL twice now but his power is still judged by his cramped Norfolk stint.

I try to temper my enthusiasm with these guys, but with Snyder, I feel in my gut that hes better than many folks think....Not me being optimistic, its me being confident in how I feel about Snyder. Everyone has guys they like more or less than most, hes a guy I like more than most....

[Lucky Jim]

Reimold's projection there is nowhere near optimistic. Thats pretty much where he was this year. Snyder's I dont see how, hes a better pure hitter than Reimold with a better hit tool. His ceiling consists of a batter with a higher batting average than Reimold, with a less ability to achieve that ceiling due to him lacking the discipline, but plain and simply, if Reimold can hit .290 in the ML, I see no reason that Snyder cannot hit .290 to .310 with .310 being a career year. And 25 HRs is very feasible from him as well, he has more power than he showed at Norfolk. He shows plus power in Bowie and in the AFL twice now but his power is still judged by his cramped Norfolk stint.

I try to temper my enthusiasm with these guys, but with Snyder, I feel in my gut that hes better than many folks think....Not me being optimistic, its me being confident in how I feel about Snyder. Everyone has guys they like more or less than most, hes a guy I like more than most....

Just because it's how you feel doesn't mean you're not optimistic. Your estimation of our prospects is - as a rule - greater than just about anyone on the board. You may believe it, but you need to realize that it's a trend in your thinking. You have an optimistic bias. It's not a problem. But it's there.

[crawdad]

Reimold's projection there is nowhere near optimistic. Thats pretty much where he was this year. Snyder's I dont see how, hes a better pure hitter than Reimold with a better hit tool. His ceiling consists of a batter with a higher batting average than Reimold, with a less ability to achieve that ceiling due to him lacking the discipline, but plain and simply, if Reimold can hit .290 in the ML, I see no reason that Snyder cannot hit .290 to .310 with .310 being a career year. And 25 HRs is very feasible from him as well, he has more power than he showed at Norfolk. He shows plus power in Bowie and in the AFL twice now but his power is still judged by his cramped Norfolk stint.

I try to temper my enthusiasm with these guys, but with Snyder, I feel in my gut that hes better than many folks think....Not me being optimistic, its me being confident in how I feel about Snyder. Everyone has guys they like more or less than most, hes a guy I like more than most....

Well, scouting-wise sell me on Snyder as a 300/360/500 bat then?