Number 13 Prospect: SS - Pedro Florimon

[BringBackMagic]

To me, seeing Florimon come in at No. 14 means that, in Tony's eyes at least, all legit prospects stopped at No. 13.

Florimon is not a MLer. This "flashy" defense I'm hearing has resulted in a terribly inconsistent shortstop. 35 Errors this season. That's a .935 fielding percentage. And that's his average through four minor league seasons.

This year, of the 22 SS as qualified by the Elias Sports Bureau, no everyday ML SS had a fielding percentage below .962 and that was a tie between Jason Bartlett and Cristian Guzman. Orlando Cabrera made the most errors of all everyday SS with 25 in 158 games. I can't imagine what kind of butcher Florimon would be at the ML level.

His willingness to take a walk is one thing. But I've long maintained that a willingness to take a walk in the minor league level doesn't mean a whole lot if a player can't hit when he is forced to swing. A .267 batting average is going to hover around the Mendoza line at best against ML pitchers. And when ML pitchers realize that he can't hit pitches in the zone, it doesn't matter how good of an eye or how patient he is, they won't pitch him out of the zone. They'll simply pound the zone until he strikes out or hits a weak grounder.

How Florimon rates above Avery, Hoes, Johnson, Ohlman or any number of players is beyond me. He's not especially young for his league (Avery, Hoes). He doesn't have eye-popping tools (Avery, Ohlman) and he doesn't have proven production (Johnson). He's just the best shortstop we have in the system right now, which isn't saying a whole lot.

[NCRaven]

To me, seeing Florimon come in at No. 14 means that, in Tony's eyes at least, all legit prospects stopped at No. 13.

Florimon is not a MLer. This "flashy" defense I'm hearing has resulted in a terribly inconsistent shortstop. 35 Errors this season. That's a .935 fielding percentage. And that's his average through four minor league seasons.

This year, of the 22 SS as qualified by the Elias Sports Bureau, no everyday ML SS had a fielding percentage below .962 and that was a tie between Jason Bartlett and Cristian Guzman. Orlando Cabrera made the most errors of all everyday SS with 25 in 158 games. I can't imagine what kind of butcher Florimon would be at the ML level.

His willingness to take a walk is one thing. But I've long maintained that a willingness to take a walk in the minor league level doesn't mean a whole lot if a player can't hit when he is forced to swing. A .267 batting average is going to hover around the Mendoza line at best against ML pitchers. And when ML pitchers realize that he can't hit pitches in the zone, it doesn't matter how good of an eye or how patient he is, they won't pitch him out of the zone. They'll simply pound the zone until he strikes out or hits a weak grounder.

How Florimon rates above Avery, Hoes, Johnson, Ohlman or any number of players is beyond me. He's not especially young for his league (Avery, Hoes). He doesn't have eye-popping tools (Avery, Ohlman) and he doesn't have proven production (Johnson). He's just the best shortstop we have in the system right now, which isn't saying a whole lot.

Harsh! But, pretty accurate, IMO. I really don't think Florimon has a shot at playing in the majors. There will be many rated below him that I think can be productive role players, at the very least.

[QBsILLEST1]

Lucky 13 is a fine spot for a guy with this profile. Offensively it seems like he could be anything from an average MLB starter to Robert Andino 2009. Defensively he sounds similar to Andino, who also has great range but sometimes fails to make the routine play.

To hoosiers' comment, at this point on the list I think there's nobody left who is likely to be a major league everyday player. IMO, Florimon's chances are as good as anyone's, maybe better. The other position players who have a shot are either two levels or more below and just as speculative (Avery, Hoes, Givens) or at Florimon's level but highly unlikely to be everyday players (Angle). There are a few pitchers who have the upside of MLB starters but they are all sort of 5-1 shots IMO, and 10-1 for actually being a pitcher more valuable than a starting SS.

No wonder you think our system is in shambles. You dont think there is anyone left in our system who is likely to be an everyday player? There are a ton of arms left who just dont have track record and are therefore unable to be ranked this highly. Jarret Martin, Ashur Tolliver, Randy Henry, Jacob Cowan, Aaron Wirsch, Ryan Berry are all arms who you couldnt individually say will likely be a everyday MLer, not without much of a track record, but there will be some everyday MLers coming from past the #14 slot, I put my word on it. And the idea of a high floor(likely to be a MLer) is only half the equation. Most of the arms mentioned here have a chance to be more than just an everyday MLer, they all have high ceilings.

I find it quite interesting, if you read Britton's(#2 OH prospect) scouting report and then go read some of the pitchers I listed above, you will be shocked that some of the guys we drafted has better stuff than Britton. You could make an argument for Henry having the best stuff in the MiL system not named Matusz. But since he hasnt pitched he really cannot be thrown to the top of the heap, he doesnt have the pedigree, injury struck him at the worst time....

[crawdad]

No wonder you think our system is in shambles. You dont think there is anyone left in our system who is likely to be an everyday player? There are a ton of arms left who just dont have track record and are therefore unable to be ranked this highly. Jarret Martin, Ashur Tolliver, Randy Henry, Jacob Cowan, Aaron Wirsch, Ryan Berry are all arms who you couldnt individually say will likely be a everyday MLer, not without much of a track record, but there will be some everyday MLers coming from past the #14 slot, I put my word on it. And the idea of a high floor(likely to be a MLer) is only half the equation. Most of the arms mentioned here have a chance to be more than just an everyday MLer, they all have high ceilings.

I find it quite interesting, if you read Britton's(#2 OH prospect) scouting report and then go read some of the pitchers I listed above, you will be shocked that some of the guys we drafted has better stuff than Britton. You could make an argument for Henry having the best stuff in the MiL system not named Matusz. But since he hasnt pitched he really cannot be thrown to the top of the heap, he doesnt have the pedigree, injury struck him at the worst time....

To be fair, a system where prospects in the ten to twenty range are LIKELY to be starters would be an incredibly deep system. Likely, to me, generally means more often than not.

[Stotle]

No wonder you think our system is in shambles. You dont think there is anyone left in our system who is likely to be an everyday player? There are a ton of arms left who just dont have track record and are therefore unable to be ranked this highly. Jarret Martin, Ashur Tolliver, Randy Henry, Jacob Cowan, Aaron Wirsch, Ryan Berry are all arms who you couldnt individually say will likely be a everyday MLer, not without much of a track record, but there will be some everyday MLers coming from past the #14 slot, I put my word on it. And the idea of a high floor(likely to be a MLer) is only half the equation. Most of the arms mentioned here have a chance to be more than just an everyday MLer, they all have high ceilings.

I find it quite interesting, if you read Britton's(#2 OH prospect) scouting report and then go read some of the pitchers I listed above, you will be shocked that some of the guys we drafted has better stuff than Britton. You could make an argument for Henry having the best stuff in the MiL system not named Matusz. But since he hasnt pitched he really cannot be thrown to the top of the heap, he doesnt have the pedigree, injury struck him at the worst time....

I don't think your reasoning holds up. Why would these other pitchers be limited in their rankings due to track record, while Coffey and Hobgood (and Matusz/Arrieta last year) were top 10 guys?

[makoman]

To me, seeing Florimon come in at No. 14 means that, in Tony's eyes at least, all legit prospects stopped at No. 13.

Florimon is not a MLer. This "flashy" defense I'm hearing has resulted in a terribly inconsistent shortstop. 35 Errors this season. That's a .935 fielding percentage. And that's his average through four minor league seasons.

This year, of the 22 SS as qualified by the Elias Sports Bureau, no everyday ML SS had a fielding percentage below .962 and that was a tie between Jason Bartlett and Cristian Guzman. Orlando Cabrera made the most errors of all everyday SS with 25 in 158 games. I can't imagine what kind of butcher Florimon would be at the ML level.

His willingness to take a walk is one thing. But I've long maintained that a willingness to take a walk in the minor league level doesn't mean a whole lot if a player can't hit when he is forced to swing. A .267 batting average is going to hover around the Mendoza line at best against ML pitchers. And when ML pitchers realize that he can't hit pitches in the zone, it doesn't matter how good of an eye or how patient he is, they won't pitch him out of the zone. They'll simply pound the zone until he strikes out or hits a weak grounder.

How Florimon rates above Avery, Hoes, Johnson, Ohlman or any number of players is beyond me. He's not especially young for his league (Avery, Hoes). He doesn't have eye-popping tools (Avery, Ohlman) and he doesn't have proven production (Johnson). He's just the best shortstop we have in the system right now, which isn't saying a whole lot.

To be fair, it's not uncommon for a young SS to have ridiculous error totals in the minors. Jeter had 56 errors in 1993 in A ball. Bordick had a .933 FP at age 23 in AAA. Orlando Cabrera had a .943 FP in the minors at SS. Miggie had years in the minors with 44 and 36 errors. A-Rod had 35 errors in about a seasons worth of games in the minors.

Not saying he'll improve or not, I know nothing about him or his fielding, but you can't necessarily go strictly by minor league fielding #'s to predict fielding success.

[ejf1025]

I'm pretty stunned by this pick.

Over Johnson, Givens, Avery, Hoes....

[Lucky Jim]

To me, seeing Florimon come in at No. 14 means that, in Tony's eyes at least, all legit prospects stopped at No. 13.

Florimon is not a MLer. This "flashy" defense I'm hearing has resulted in a terribly inconsistent shortstop. 35 Errors this season. That's a .935 fielding percentage. And that's his average through four minor league seasons.

This year, of the 22 SS as qualified by the Elias Sports Bureau, no everyday ML SS had a fielding percentage below .962 and that was a tie between Jason Bartlett and Cristian Guzman. Orlando Cabrera made the most errors of all everyday SS with 25 in 158 games. I can't imagine what kind of butcher Florimon would be at the ML level.

His willingness to take a walk is one thing. But I've long maintained that a willingness to take a walk in the minor league level doesn't mean a whole lot if a player can't hit when he is forced to swing. A .267 batting average is going to hover around the Mendoza line at best against ML pitchers. And when ML pitchers realize that he can't hit pitches in the zone, it doesn't matter how good of an eye or how patient he is, they won't pitch him out of the zone. They'll simply pound the zone until he strikes out or hits a weak grounder.

Erick Aybar had 32 errors in AA in 2005. Is he an MLB SS? Answer: yes. With a plus glove.

I question his bat, too. But 32 errors in AA doesn't mean much.

[QBsILLEST1]

I don't think your reasoning holds up. Why would these other pitchers be limited in their rankings due to track record, while Coffey and Hobgood (and Matusz/Arrieta last year) were top 10 guys?

Because they have 1st round pedigree, all of them are either 1st rounders or were considered 1st round talents. For Coffey, he was placed where he was based soley off of when he talked to I believe it was JJ, nothing but glowing stuff and the 1st round pedigree seems to line up with what JJ said. Hobgood is a 1st rounder as well, and his stuff is very good for a kid his age. When you get to guys like Henry who werent considered 1st round talents because he hardly pitched this year and didnt pitch at all the year before. Jarret Martin was considered one of the best HS arms in the 08 draft, but in 09, it seemed as though the helium was gone. I never heard about him leading up to this year's draft like I did in 08.

IMO another big reason for these JuCo guys not being rated as highly is because they are older than HSers, some of them are as old as some college draftees, yet they have no track record against advanced competition like college ball players do. And, since they are older, they have less projection left, you as a team has less developmental time with them etc. This is what I see....

Are these reports from MLB.com during the draft of these guys fluff?

[ejf1025]

Honestly...I have to come back to this...

What am I missing here?

He OPS'd below .600 (!) at Delmarva in consecutive years...didn't break .300 slg...doesn't walk...strikesout a lot.

Sounds like a good month or two at Fred. is what got him here...

Not really feeling good about whoever is coming in below him.

[RandyM]

Because they have 1st round pedigree, all of them are either 1st rounders or were considered 1st round talents. For Coffey, he was placed where he was based soley off of when he talked to I believe it was JJ, nothing but glowing stuff and the 1st round pedigree seems to line up with what JJ said. Hobgood is a 1st rounder as well, and his stuff is very good for a kid his age. When you get to guys like Henry who werent considered 1st round talents because he hardly pitched this year and didnt pitch at all the year before. Jarret Martin was considered one of the best HS arms in the 08 draft, but in 09, it seemed as though the helium was gone. I never heard about him leading up to this year's draft like I did in 08.

IMO another big reason for these JuCo guys not being rated as highly is because they are older than HSers, some of them are as old as some college draftees, yet they have no track record against advanced competition like college ball players do. And, since they are older, they have less projection left, you as a team has less developmental time with them etc. This is what I see....

Are these reports from MLB.com during the draft of these guys fluff?

Only ones that rated Matzek or Turner higher than Hobgood . Sorry that was just too easy.

But really, all those guys might have high projectability, but you need to incorporate what is mostly likely to happen to actually rate them. Most HS pitchers are never going to make it out of the minors.

Example Wirsch might be a #3 pitcher (There are very TOR of the rotation prospects, not a slight at Wirsch). What is that probability that he reaches it since he has pitched so little professionally?

[QBsILLEST1]

Honestly...I have to come back to this...

What am I missing here?

He OPS'd below .600 (!) at Delmarva in consecutive years...didn't break .300 slg...doesn't walk...strikesout a lot.

Sounds like a good month or two at Fred. is what got him here...

Not really feeling good about whoever is coming in below him.

Dont feel bad about who is below this Pedro. Tony is sticking his neck on the line for this guy here. He obviously really like Pedro and sees the upside in him. Me personally I wouldnt have him in my top 20, but I also dont have the same info Tony does. But, Pedro has very good range and a good glove. Hes young and for the first half of the MiL season posted well over a .800 OPS. His bat has potential, and even if its a fairly small chance that it amounts to an average hitting SS, he will be an above average overall SS due to his excellent fielding. The fact that he plays a premium position also helps his cause.

[Stotle]

Because they have 1st round pedigree, all of them are either 1st rounders or were considered 1st round talents. For Coffey, he was placed where he was based soley off of when he talked to I believe it was JJ, nothing but glowing stuff and the 1st round pedigree seems to line up with what JJ said. Hobgood is a 1st rounder as well, and his stuff is very good for a kid his age. When you get to guys like Henry who werent considered 1st round talents because he hardly pitched this year and didnt pitch at all the year before. Jarret Martin was considered one of the best HS arms in the 08 draft, but in 09, it seemed as though the helium was gone. I never heard about him leading up to this year's draft like I did in 08.

IMO another big reason for these JuCo guys not being rated as highly is because they are older than HSers, some of them are as old as some college draftees, yet they have no track record against advanced competition like college ball players do. And, since they are older, they have less projection left, you as a team has less developmental time with them etc. This is what I see....

Are these reports from MLB.com during the draft of these guys fluff?

Pitchers can be rated regardless of competition. Their stuff can be examined in a vacuum (generally speaking, of course) so I don't buy into the competition being the reason they fell. Were they hitters, like Welty, for example, then I might agree with you.

You may think Coffey is a first round talent -- the bottom line is that he flashed some tools that could arguably make him a first rounder, and then he broke down. Prior to the spring, he hadn't shown these tools. He has yet to show any ability to sustain these tools over any significant period of time. I think his ranking on Tony's list is an indication of how strongly Jordan feels about Coffey, which is good news. The fact that these other arms aren't as high on the list should probably be taken as an indication that, while not down on them, Jordan isn't thinking these are early round talents (or at least isn't conveying that in his talks with Tony). That's my assumption, but I think intuitively it makes sense.

Finally, I think you need to look at the draft reports with a little bit more of a critical eye. When you read them, look for flaws and flags, and omissions. Sometimes, I think you get caught up in the good news and forget that things like missing a season, or only throwing a dozen innings, are pretty serious question marks. It isn't that BAL shouldn't have drafted these people, but neither can we look at them and only think ceiling when trying to critique a prospect ranking list.

Just my opinion.

[Stotle]

Dont feel bad about who is below this Pedro. Tony is sticking his neck on the line for this guy here. He obviously really like Pedro and sees the upside in him. Me personally I wouldnt have him in my top 20, but I also dont have the same info Tony does. But, Pedro has very good range and a good glove. Hes young and for the first half of the MiL season posted well over a .800 OPS. His bat has potential, and even if its a fairly small chance that it amounts to an average hitting SS, he will be an above average overall SS due to his excellent fielding. The fact that he plays a premium position also helps his cause.

The bolded is something I'd expect to see written about Elvis Andrus two years ago. I just don't see Florimon on that level, irrespective of where he lines-up with other O's prospects.

[ejf1025]

The bolded is something I'd expect to see written about Elvis Andrus two years ago. I just don't see Florimon on that level, irrespective of where he lines-up with other O's prospects.

How realistic is it to expect anything from someone hitting the way Florimon has the two seasons prior to this?

I ask honestly....who are some examples of sub-600 OPSers with that BB/K rate and low SLG% that have made the bigs?

I just can't see how any scouting metric would trump those numbers...just awful.