McPhail: Bullpen to require attention this offseason

[Mackus]

But don't tell me how great all these Red Sox players. Dice-k =5.00 ERA in the 2nd half. Lowell and Pedroia are nothing special on the road.

Lowell + Pedroia + Matsuzaka > Mora + Roberts + Guthrie.

I'd take Dice-K over Guthrie any day of the week, although probably not when you factor in salary. Pedroia has an .828 OPS as you said, Roberts is only at .815. Roberts is the better player, as Pedroia is largely driven by hitting very well in Fenway, but its not a huge difference. I don't think anybody will argue that Mora is even close to as good as Lowell, offensively or defensively.

You take away points from Lowell and Pedroia for performing drastically better at Fenway because its a hitters park, but then also take away points from Matsuzaka for performing drastically worse at Fenway, thats a hypocritical argument. You don't mention that Guthrie's home ERA is over .75 higher at home, or that he's had an ERA over 5 in the second half as well.

And then you have Ortiz and Manny, who make Nick Markakis look like Corey Patterson at the plate. Theres absolutely no comparison between anybody on our team and those guys.

The Red Sox are just a fantastically better team and organization than the Orioles. They have more stars, more depth, and probably a better farm system as well. Denying that is simply denying the truth. Saying that doesn't make me less of an Orioles fan, its just that the team sucks right now. Theres only a handful of guys that you could consider keystones of a championship caliber club.

[square634]

If you really believe this, what the heck are you doing here? Why no just join the Red Sox Nation and be done with it?

Your prespective is way different from mine. I look at Dice-k and I see a guy that is not even as good a Guthrie, in a home park he can't pitch in. 5.10 ERA in Fenway, 5.37 ERA in the 2nd half. You are believing the hype. Did you see this guy against us when they were just here. He is cooked.

Lowell is better then any O's hitter. In Fenway for this year maybe. Lowell is an ok hitter having a good year. He is hitting over 1.000 in Fenway this year and 777 OPS on the road. And he is a FA and Boston has not even decided if they want him back. He is not a star level player.

We have no idea what Pedroia is yet. He had a 804 Ops at AAA and He is 828 now. Maybe he is where he is going to be. 898 at home and 756 on the road. Fenway again. And he has what? 6 steals. But according to you he is 95% of Roberts.

Take your smoke and blow it to the Red Sox Nation. Yes they are better right now and deeper. But don't tell me all this crap about how great all their players are. Its just smoke and Fenway.

The O's are who the O's are not because they don't have star players. It's because they have made very bad decisions. Decisions that cost Flanagan his job. Melvin's contract is too long and so is Gibbons. They added Bako, Payton, Williamson, Baez and Bell. They refuse to get a decent leftfielder and instead keep two utility infielders. That and injuries is why the O's are where the O's are.

It's McPhail's job to make better decisions.

But don't tell me how great all these Red Sox players. Dice-k =5.00 ERA in the 2nd half. Lowell and Pedroia are nothing special on the road.

Wow, you are picking and choosing numbers pretty conveniently. How about this number? The Orioles are 25 games back of the Red Sox. TWENTY FIVE! I can acknowledge that the Orioles are much, much worse than the Red Sox (in fact it would be delusional to think otherwise) without having to "join Red Sox Nation."

[wildcard]

Lowell + Pedroia + Matsuzaka > Mora + Roberts + Guthrie.

I'd take Dice-K over Guthrie any day of the week, although probably not when you factor in salary. Pedroia has an .828 OPS as you said, Roberts is only at .815. Roberts is the better player, as Pedroia is largely driven by hitting very well in Fenway, but its not a huge difference. I don't think anybody will argue that Mora is even close to as good as Lowell, offensively or defensively.

You take away points from Lowell and Pedroia for performing drastically better at Fenway because its a hitters park, but then also take away points from Matsuzaka for performing drastically worse at Fenway, thats a hypocritical argument. You don't mention that Guthrie's home ERA is over .75 higher at home, or that he's had an ERA over 5 in the second half as well.

And then you have Ortiz and Manny, who make Nick Markakis look like Corey Patterson at the plate. Theres absolutely no comparison between anybody on our team and those guys.

The Red Sox are just a fantastically better team and organization than the Orioles. They have more stars, more depth, and probably a better farm system as well. Denying that is simply denying the truth. Saying that doesn't make me less of an Orioles fan, its just that the team sucks right now. Theres only a handful of guys that you could consider keystones of a championship caliber club.

I am agreeing with you. I said the Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Papelbon are stars. There is no question. Jon starts telling me how wonderful Lowell, Dice-k and Pedroia are. I still say. Lowell and Pedroia number are greatly affected by Fenway. Dice-k is no better then Guthrie in the 2nd half.

Boston is better than the O's. Why would I even have to type that. But don't build their players into something they are not.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you really believe this, what the heck are you doing here? Why no just join the Red Sox Nation and be done with it?

No thanks, I've stuck with the O's for 30 years, so I'll probably keep at it.

It's a little loopy to suggest that (IMO) an objective assessment that finds the Red Sox have a lot more good players than the 25-games-back Orioles means I'm some kind of SOSH conspiracy guy. Almost all of your assessments of the Orioles are very optimistic, and almost all of your assessments of the Sox are extremely critical.

If Matsuzaka is cooked, then what's Guthrie - who has performed very similarly? Fenway hasn't been an extreme hitter's park in years - it's 2007 factors are 102/101, meaning it's essentially neutral. You've just happened to forget that much of their lineup (say, Youkilis, Manny, Varitek, etc) are hitting as well or better on the road.

I refuse to get in line with any assessment that the disaster that is the 2007 Orioles is only a few pieces and a little rearranging away from contention. It's nonsense. And questioning my fandom isn't going to make it more logical.

The O's have a long, long, long way to go. Time to face facts.

[wildcard]

Wow, you are picking and choosing numbers pretty conveniently. How about this number? The Oriole are 25 games back of the Red Sox. TWENTY FIVE! I can acknowledge that the Orioles are much, much worse than the Red Sox (in fact it would be delusional to think otherwise) without having to "join Red Sox Nation."

Yes, but you are not trying to jam Boston players as the greatest thing in the world down my throat the way Jon was. Yes Boston is much, much better. But Fenway makes their numbers better. Pedrioa can hard steal a base. He is not Roberts who is one of the best leadoff guys in the game. Yet Jon says he is 95% of Roberts.

Lowell - Fenway effect. Dice-k = Guthrie. He just makes a zillion times more.

Boston is better and deeper. But don't overrate each player the way Jon was.

[DrungoHazewood]

Boston is better and deeper. But don't overrate each player the way Jon was.

You have to get your 25 wins somewhere. There's only so much overrating you can do. An average player on the Orioles' roster is a full win worse than an average player on the Red Sox.

[wildcard]

You have to get your 25 wins somewhere. There's only so much overrating you can do. An average player on the Orioles' roster is a full win worse than an average player on the Red Sox.

I never said anything to dispute that. Payton, Patterson, Mora can't hit like they do and the O's pen outside of Walker and Bradford is a disaster. The O's have tons of injuries and Boston has a better 25-30 guys. Who would dare question that.

But some of the O's players are pretty good too. There just aren't enough of them.

[osfan83]

Anyone who is up for a bet, I will take the Sox next year, give you the O's and 10 games and we'll see who finishes better. I might even be persueded to give the O's 15 games next year.

[square634]

I never said anything to dispute that. Payton, Patterson, Mora can't hit like they do and the O's pen outside of Walker and Bradford is a disaster. The O's have tons of injuries and Boston has a better 25-30 guys. Who would dare question that.

But some of the O's players are pretty good too. There just aren't enough of them.

The Orioles' "stars" are nowhere near as good as Boston's "stars," and 3-4 of Boston's other players have produced about as much as our "stars." That is just looking at it in an objective statistical way. That being said, I don't quite understand the point of analyzing the teams in terms of number of "stars." The Red Sox also seem to have much better talent under the age of 25, even with Loewen in the equation. With these two things in mind, I can't be convinced that we can catch the Red Sox by complementing are current stable of "stars." We've been trying to build around our "core" for 8 or so years now. Eventually, we need to come to terms with the fact that it isn't just the periphery that is bad, but that we are rotten to the core.

[bigbird]

Impact players is a better term to use. I'm not sure we really have one besides Bedard.

[Mackus]

Impact players is a better term to use. I'm not sure we really have one besides Bedard.

I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

[bgtimber75]

Anyone who is up for a bet, I will take the Sox next year, give you the O's and 10 games and we'll see who finishes better. I might even be persueded to give the O's 15 games next year.

Blow it up or stay the corse this team finishes 20 games behind NY/Boston next season.

[Mad Mark]

I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

Excellent analysis, Mackus. The $64,000 question is: can the Orioles fill their current glaring holes around these players, or do they indeed need to "blow it up"?

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Mackus again.

[bigbird]

I'd say we have about a handful of guys that could stay in the same exact role they are in with us and be on a championship caliber club.

Bedard could be an ace on any WS contending team. Miggy could start at SS and bat 3rd-5th for any WS contending team. Markakis could start at LF or RF and bat 3rd, 5th, or 6th for any WS contending team. Roberts could leadoff and play 2B for any WS contender. Walker could be the primary lefthanded arm out of the bullpen for any WS contender. All of these guys could be "impact players" or "difference makers" or whatever you want to call them on pretty much any contending team.

We've got another group of players that could fullfill lesser roles on contenders than they fill for us, such as Guthrie, Bradford, Millar, etc. Those guys could be contributors to contenders, but we're asking them to be difference makers.

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

[Mackus]

We're talking about our guys vs Boston.. We can't match Manny, Ortiz, Beckett and Paplebon in terms of impact.

Well, Bedard can match Beckett, but other than that I agree.