McPhail: Bullpen to require attention this offseason

[Goop]

"You have to know how long you'll be without [baez] if at all," MacPhail said. "But clearly, the bullpen is an area that is going to require attention in the offseason, either way."

Who besides Bradford and Walker can you pencil into the 2008 pen right now and hope to be somewhat decent? MAzzone hit the nail on the head in saying guys are showing us why they shouldn't be here.

Well that's good to hear.

[NoVaO]

Tony..>Everytime you do this, all you do is focus on his ERA.

If you haven't guessed by now, i focus a lot more than just that...The HR rate, gb/fb ratio, command rate and rising BB rate is a much bigger key than his ERA.

However, over 14 starts, his ERA was still almost 5...You can pick and choose whatever you want.

It still seems like you are completely disregarding his excellent start.

Either way, his K:BB rate after July 1st was 1.87. K rate was 6.69, BB rate was 3.39. Even if you don't want to include his first half, that is still a pretty solid rate, around league average. His HR rate was 1.85. Whether that is a sign of things to come is debateable, but I tend to think he is pretty unlucky in this instance. Here's why:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_3961&type=pitcher

The link basically tells you where his homers were hit, how far, and the effects the weather had on the ball hit. I see that 8 of the 21 homeruns hit off him were classified as "just enough" to get out of the park. That means it cleared the fences by less than 10 vertical feet or it landed just barely past the fence. Of those 8, 5 of those homeruns were classified as lucky in that they would not have been homeruns if played in neutral weather. 4 of those were as a starter.

Looking at his GB:FB ratio further, he only ended up a little lower than he should of been since the GB:FB ratio in the minors is around was around 2 in 06, but around 1.3 in 05. He should have had a ratio a little better than league average and he ended up a little below.

Still, is it dangerous expecting this guy to come in next year at as a #2 starter? Yes. However, I don't think its a stretch at all to say that we can rely on him to be a good starter for us next year, whether he is a #4 or 3 or 2.

[Sports Guy]

It still seems like you are completely disregarding his excellent start.

Either way, his K:BB rate after July 1st was 1.87. K rate was 6.69, BB rate was 3.39. Even if you don't want to include his first half, that is still a pretty solid rate, around league average. His HR rate was 1.85. Whether that is a sign of things to come is debateable, but I tend to think he is pretty unlucky in this instance. Here's why:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_3961&type=pitcher

The link basically tells you where his homers were hit, how far, and the effects the weather had on the ball hit. I see that 8 of the 21 homeruns hit off him were classified as "just enough" to get out of the park. That means it cleared the fences by less than 10 vertical feet or it landed just barely past the fence. Of those 8, 5 of those homeruns were classified as lucky in that they would not have been homeruns if played in neutral weather. 4 of those were as a starter.

Looking at his GB:FB ratio further, he only ended up a little lower than he should of been since the GB:FB ratio in the minors is around was around 2 in 06, but around 1.3 in 05. He should have had a ratio a little better than league average and he ended up a little below.

Still, is it dangerous expecting this guy to come in next year at as a #2 starter? Yes. However, I don't think its a stretch at all to say that we can rely on him to be a good starter for us next year, whether he is a #4 or 3 or 2.

Yes, i am disregarding his start...His BABIP was/is very low...His LOB% was/is also lucky. Plus, that 10 start stretch was unlike anything he has done in his career.

His GB/FB ratio, over his last 14 starts, was worse than 1:1.

I do agree that his HR rate in his last 14 starts is flukish...He isn't going to give up close to 2 homers every 9 IP...That being said, it was also artificially low in the first 10 games, so it was kind of evening out.

If/when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, i think his stats go up even more.

Frobby pointed out something to me the other day that i think he was dead on about....I am giving pitchers too much credit...A 4.8-5 ERA is acceptable for a 4/5 starter...So maybe, Guthrie can be a back of the rotation guy but he is no more than that IMO.

BTW, this weather stuff and whatnot seems bs to me....Bottom line is he let up a lot more ground balls in the second half and he paid the consequences.

Bottom line is he is pitching in Baltimore, at OPACY in the summer...The ball will travel...He needs to not throw so many fly balls...If he does, he will continue to give up a ton of homers.

[Frobby]

No, Mazzone didn't say he has a #2 starter. He said his #2 starter went down. Just because a pitcher is his team's #2 starter that doesn't mean he's a #2 starter (when using the term as most tend to use it).

Every team has had injuries, so that isn't a good excuse.

Guthrie may not be a no. 2 starter going forward, but for purposes of 2007 he certainly qualified. 13th in ERA, 9th in WHIP, 11th in percentage of quality starts. That's easily a no. 2 starter.

[Sports Guy]

Guthrie may not be a no. 2 starter going forward, but for purposes of 2007 he certainly qualified. 13th in ERA, 9th in WHIP, 11th in percentage of quality starts. That's easily a no. 2 starter.

Can't argue with this Frobby.

[Frobby]

Let me say categorically that we should not sign any veteran relievers who cost draft picks. I don't mind signing a couple of decent veteran guys to 1-2 year deals, but draft picks are a no-no.

[wildcard]

Let me say categorically that we should not sign any veteran relievers who cost draft picks. I don't mind signing a couple of decent veteran guys to 1-2 year deals, but draft picks are a no-no.

I think you can extend that to any player. If a guy in not worth a 4 year contract, he is not worth a draft choice IMO. There are other ways to get players.

[Frobby]

I think you can extend that to any player. If a guy in not worth a 4 year contract, he is not worth a draft choice IMO. There are other ways to get players.

I agree with you here.

[utvolzac]

SG, sometimes you are so full of junk. (nicest word I could think of) If I don't believe what you believe then I am for burying the O's according to you. That is just not so.

I have not said one word about giving away draft choices. Matter of fact, in another post I said that I though that keeping draft choices would be one of McPhail highest priorities. And I agree with that approach.

Nothing I am proposing would be a big contract or cost draft choices. Let's wait for the ratings of the players to be announced after the season and see who does not cost draft choices.

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

[Sports Guy]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

I will be looking forward to seeing any attempt at a logical argument against this post.

[wildcard]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

No, there is something between Blow it up and spend wildly that can make this team successful. And I think McPhail may know how to make a smart trade. Fill a gap until the kids are ready.

We need to know who costs draft choices. Did Jose Guillen cost a draft choice last year? I don't remember.

Does any one know where to get last years winter player rating and classifications? A B C level players?

[mweb]

So in this plan to sign 6 guys, w/o giving up draft picks or giving out bad contracts, how exactly does that turn us into a contender?

Sounds like you just described the types of league average free agent stop gap players that have drug this franchise into the ground.

Your real choices are this...Long term or short term. Go full blown, all out, money/future be damned and try to win with your current core group by 2009 and spend, spend, spend and fix the holes with good solutions, not stop gaps. Try and win now. We'll call this Quick Fix. In the process, the farm system takes a major hit because to get those elite free agents, you lose draft picks. You could supplement the farm system by signing the better latin american prospects, but that will require even more money.

or the Blow It Up scenario. Trade away what valuable parts we have left and stockpile young major league ready or close to talent and build a new core group. We probably won't win right out of the gates, but at least we'd be replacing our aging core group to build around with younger players with potential.

I don't see any other alternative to the situation the O's are in. They've pissed away too many off-seasons with stop gaps trying to get to .500. Now they only have two seasons left until half our team might leave via Free Agency. We cannot continue to have these throw away seasons like the last few where we're stuck in neutral and not making progress in either direction.

Yep, I've been saying this for awhile, either go all out to win now, or seriously rebuild, nothing in between. I'd prefer to rebuild, but if they're able to put together a real contender without trading away top young talent, that be great. I just don't see that being very realistic unless we can somehow get Arod as the main addition.

[NoVaO]

Yes, i am disregarding his start...His BABIP was/is very low...His LOB% was/is also lucky. Plus, that 10 start stretch was unlike anything he has done in his career.

I don't see how you completely disregard his start. The BABIP and LOB% were evident in his 1.73 ERA. His fielding independent stats were still in the 2's. It was a combination of luck and skill on Guthrie's part.

His GB/FB ratio, over his last 14 starts, was worse than 1:1.

The ratio balanced itself out over the course of the season. It ended up a little lower than you would project for him, but its not too concerning.

I do agree that his HR rate in his last 14 starts is flukish...He isn't going to give up close to 2 homers every 9 IP...That being said, it was also artificially low in the first 10 games, so it was kind of evening out.

He still ended up with a HR:FB rate that was a little unlucky.

If/when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, i think his stats go up even more.

I'm not sure if you mean when he has an average LOB% and BABIP, his homeruns, Ks, and BB/9 will get worse...but his ERA will obviously get worse.

Frobby pointed out something to me the other day that i think he was dead on about....I am giving pitchers too much credit...A 4.8-5 ERA is acceptable for a 4/5 starter...So maybe, Guthrie can be a back of the rotation guy but he is no more than that IMO.

A 4.8-5 ERA I think is near the low end of the projection scale. I think he is between a 4.2-4.5...

BTW, this weather stuff and whatnot seems bs to me...Bottom line is he is pitching in Baltimore, at OPACY in the summer...The ball will travel.

Camden Yards plays as a pretty neutral park. The temperature in the summer seems to add only a few feet. The wind sometimes kills balls in the OF but for the most plays neutral. I don't think its bs at all...its essentially normalizing the weather.

The part to focus on is how many of HRs barely left the ball park.

Bottom line is he let up a lot more ground balls in the second half and he paid the consequences. He needs to not throw so many fly balls...If he does, he will continue to give up a ton of homers.

His HR:FB rate in the second half of the season was 15.5%. 5 of those homers were on balls that barely cleared the fences.

So while keeping the ball on the ground will limit his homers, he was still unlucky in how many fly balls became HRs. His BABIP was around .320 for the second half. I know part of this was simply his stats balancing themselves out, but if we are judging his ERA of 5 for the second half, it should be pointed out how that ERA was achieved. I can't find his LOB% for the second half, but I know it lowered gradually as the year went on.

Thats why a prediction somewhere between the 5 he put up in the second half of the year and the 3.7 ERA he put up as a starter this year is a good mid-range selection. Its an inexact science...either way, I think its pretty safe to rely on him being a solid member of our rotation.

[Hallas]

I don't recall saying otherwise.

I've gone on record as saying I have a higher opinion of his future than does SG. I've gone on record as saying he can be a middle of the rotation starter on an average team and a back end of the rotation starter on a good one.

He needs to at least maintain his K-Rate without an increase in his BB-Rate and improve upon his GB%. If he can do those things I'll feel a lot better about his future. If he can't, then I can see a Rodrigo Lopez career pattern in his future (and that isn't necessarily a bad thing).

Rodrigo Lopez with a better attitude is certainly a pitcher I could live with as a #2 or #3 pitcher.

Here's a q though - since FB pitchers allow fewer hits on balls in play, and he doesn't really walk a whole lot of people, is it that important for him to improve his GB% significantly? It's not like he's an extreme flyball pitcher, and if the Ks and BBs stay the same he'll be allowing mostly solo shots and it won't hurt his overall performance too much. I'm of course making the assumption that the rest of his peripherals stay the same. Bruce Chen comes to mind as a recent extreme flyball pitcher that flashed in the pan for us, but his walk rate was much worse than Guthrie's.

[utvolzac]

No, there is something between Blow it up and spend wildly that can make this team successful. And I think McPhail may know how to make a smart trade. Fill a gap until the kids are ready.

We need to know who costs draft choices. Did Jose Guillen cost a draft choice last year? I don't remember.

Does any one know where to get last years winter player rating and classifications? A B C level players?

I could not disagree more, this team is miles away from being an actual contender. The types of players it would take to turn this franchise around aren't going to be the type of guys you can get w/o giving up draft picks or spending a ridiculous amount of money.

Filling gaps until kids are ready is not even an option at this point. Haven't we done that the last two seasons. Besides that what impact "kids" would they be holding down the fort for? Rowell, Snyder, Erbe? By the time they get here half our roster will be gone. Wieters is the only prospect in our system that has impact potential and he hasn't even picked up a wood back yet. Reimold looks to be the only position player close to making the jump, but I don't see him as much of a superstar prospect like Markakis, more along the lines of a good major league player, but not a guy you build the franchise around.