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Why not Holliday?


JTrea81

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We sign Holliday, trade one of the young outfielders and Scott and bring in a corner infielder and some bullpen help. I know it's not that easy but I personally think Holliday as our number 4 hitter and LF is a good move.

In theory your ideas have some merit. The problem is that we're not playing a video game or in a fantasy league. Real life Major League Baseball trades are not that easy to complete. You can't just trade someone because you need to trade them.

What if we can't find a suitable deal for two of Scott/Pie/Reimold after we sign Holliday? Then what? Do we go into the season with 5 or 6 starter-quality outfielders? How much have you improved your team if you've added Holliday and subtracted Reimold? It certainly isn't a $20MM improvement.

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Regardless of the debate around to sign or not to sign (we won't, so not much of a point), I think Holliday is really overrated. Sure, the guy tore it up after he was traded, but we see that time and time again when guys go to the NL. Heck, Julio Lugo was hitting the cover off the ball after he left, and he sat on the bench for the Bosox. When Holliday was in Oak, he was hardly an elite player. Sure, the park is a pitcher's park, but he still put up numbers that were not outstanding by any means. I don't want those concerns if I'm looking to shell out long term big bucks for a guy. Let someone else make the mistake of signing him to a 100 million+ contract. I'll stick with our current outfield and RF, who is just as good as Holliday in my mind.

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However, if you sign Holliday, that gives you the opportunity to trade one or two of Reimold, Scott, Pie or even Jones to upgrade at another position.

The Orioles can get creative here, as they can't find that RH hitting 1B man, but they can find a RH #4 hitter, and then they can use the depth that they've acquired to go ahead and trade for a 1st baseman that they wouldn't have been able to get because the players they now have to trade weren't orginally expendable.

This may shock you. But I believe that this might be a good idea IF it could all be done at the same time, with the O's getting the return they would need by trading from OF depth.

But it wouldn't happen that way. What would happen is that after Holliday signs, the surplus OFers would lose trade value because every potential partner would know that the O's have to make a deal. And the closer you get to ST, the more obvious that would be, because a roster that includes Holliday, Markakis, Jones, Pie, Reimold, and Scott would be the height of insanity. So the O's almost inevitably would end up giving a discount in order to get out from under an impossible situation.

Also, you are talking basically about trading Reimold and Scott, since Pie is needed as a backup CFer and they aren't going to deal Jones or Markakis. So your list of trading partners is limited to those who A) have a spare 1Bman better than Snyder and B) are willing to trade that guy for two LFers.

That's a pretty short list. In fact it probably includes zero teams.

So in reality, what you're talking about is a FA signing that pretty much guarantees that the O's get to mid-February with five or even six potential starting OFers. What happens then, most likely, is that Reimold goes to DH, Scott gets dealt somewhere for a mid-level reliever, and Pie sits around waiting for somebody to get hurt.

Total effect for the outlay of 100MM-120MM over 5 or 6 years: one mid-tier reliever, moderate-to-insignificant upgrades at LF and DH, a total waste of Pie, and continued endless whining about how the O's don't have the 1Bman they need to compete in the AL East.

Show me how the contract to Holliday gets them any more than that.

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OK....if we're going to try sign Holliday........

-- First we have to trade Scott, maybe for a reliever/closer or solid prospects

then....

-- Hope that one of Reimold/Holliday/Markakis can make the move to 1B

and.....

-- Rotate Reimold/Holliday/Markakis/Jones/Pie as DH

It can be done, but........:scratchchinhmm:

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This may shock you. But I believe that this might be a good idea IF it could all be done at the same time, with the O's getting the return they would need by trading from OF depth.

But it wouldn't happen that way. What would happen is that after Holliday signs, the surplus OFers would lose trade value because every potential partner would know that the O's have to make a deal. And the closer you get to ST, the more obvious that would be, because a roster that includes Holliday, Markakis, Jones, Pie, Reimold, and Scott would be the height of insanity. So the O's almost inevitably would end up giving a discount in order to get out from under an impossible situation.

Also, you are talking basically about trading Reimold and Scott, since Pie is needed as a backup CFer and they aren't going to deal Jones or Markakis. So your list of trading partners is limited to those who A) have a spare 1Bman better than Snyder and B) are willing to trade that guy for two LFers.

That's a pretty short list. In fact it probably includes zero teams.

So in reality, what you're talking about is a FA signing that pretty much guarantees that the O's get to mid-February with five or even six potential starting OFers. What happens then, most likely, is that Reimold goes to DH, Scott gets dealt somewhere for a mid-level reliever, and Pie sits around waiting for somebody to get hurt.

Total effect for the outlay of 100MM-120MM over 5 or 6 years: one mid-tier reliever, moderate-to-insignificant upgrades at LF and DH, a total waste of Pie, and continued endless whining about how the O's don't have the 1Bman they need to compete in the AL East.

Show me how the contract to Holliday gets them any more than that.

The O's don't technically "have to trade" anybody.

They could say Scott will move to 1B, Reimold to DH and Pie will be the 4th OFer. All the while they could keep 1B open and try to find a 1B via trade using one or two of those three guys.

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In theory your ideas have some merit. The problem is that we're not playing a video game or in a fantasy league. Real life Major League Baseball trades are not that easy to complete. You can't just trade someone because you need to trade them.

What if we can't find a suitable deal for two of Scott/Pie/Reimold after we sign Holliday? Then what? Do we go into the season with 5 or 6 starter-quality outfielders? How much have you improved your team if you've added Holliday and subtracted Reimold? It certainly isn't a $20MM improvement.

I agree, I understand it's not a video game and fantasy land. I also said that I understand in is not that easy. But, I am assuming (and could be wrong) that if Reimold is on the market there would be teams ready to jump on him. I just think Holliday would be a good addition to this team and help us compete right now.

But yes, we are not playing a game andit's tough to pull off. But I am justready to field a team that can get me excited about Orioles baseball again. Not, just excited it starts and we know that a fourht or fifth place finish is what we are going to reach.

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The O's don't technically "have to trade" anybody.

They could say Scott will move to 1B, Reimold to DH and Pie will be the 4th OFer. All the while they could keep 1B open and try to find a 1B via trade using one or two of those three guys.

None of which provides the big upgrade at 1B.

Look, your idea is that since there isn't a stud 1Bman available this year by FA, the O's should manufacture one, right? That way, in principle, while they're paying $100MM to Holliday, they're really paying it to get the stud 1Bman. Isn't that the point of this thread, or did I just imagine it?

But if they don't get the stud 1Bman--they're just paying $100MM to Holliday. Paying $100MM for the upgrade of Reimold to Holliday.

And where the heck does Pie get any playing time in an OF of Holliday, Jones, and Markakis?

Show me where I am wrong about any of this. Make the case that the Reimold-Holliday upgrade is worth $100MM.

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But if they don't get the stud 1Bman--they're just paying $100MM to Holliday. Paying $100MM for the upgrade of Reimold to Holliday.

And where the heck does Pie get any playing time in an OF of Holliday, Jones, and Markakis?

And it's not even just $100M for Reimold-to-Holliday, it's $100M for (Reimold + most of Pie) to Halladay. If Reimold is your left fielder you're not gonna be shy about playing Pie, either for defense in the late innings or against tough righties or just as regular rest for Reimold. If Holliday is signed he's in there, nine innings a game, 155 games a year. Pie gets 100, 150 at bats if nobody is hurt for long. His role will be to play somewhere in the outfield once every two weeks, maybe pinch hit in interleague, and pinch run for Matt Wieters.

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Because we have 4 above average OFers and pissing away 18+ million a year on another one is a stupid use of resources.

Sorry, but I think you're comment comes across as a bit naive. Holliday is the best FA bat avaliable...and we need a big bat in our lineup. We shouldn't let the fact that he doesn't play a position of need discourage us from pursuing him if his price tag does in fact drop. Luke Scott is a nonfactor in my opinion. I'm 100 percent convinced he will be traded. That would leave us with arguably five potential everday players (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pie, Holliday) to plug into four spots (counting the DH). Not a bad problem to have. It would also give us the flexibility to shop a Jones, Reimold, Pie type for a player that fills a position of need. I personally think an Ad.Jones for A.Gonzalez trade might have some potential and make sense for both sides. or maybe we could flip one for our SS of the future...

I guess that long-winded point I'm trying to make is that the best path between two points is not always a straight line.

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Alrighty, let's not turn this thing into a Pie thread. We've had plenty of those.

I realize we have four OFers, and five if you count Luke Scott.

However, if you sign Holliday, that gives you the opportunity to trade one or two of Reimold, Scott, Pie or even Jones to upgrade at another position.

The Orioles can get creative here, as they can't find that RH hitting 1B man, but they can find a RH #4 hitter, and then they can use the depth that they've acquired to go ahead and trade for a 1st baseman that they wouldn't have been able to get because the players they now have to trade weren't orginally expendable.

I have to say that I don't normally agree with you Jtrea, but I can see your point here. In Holliday we could get a proven LF that is a middle of the order guy. It's an unconventional way of getting that #4 hitter, but I wouldn't object to it at all if we could land a CI or SS by signing Holliday and then turning around and trading one or two of Pie/Scott/Reimold... That being said, this is obviously not going to happen..

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