Great news from Hobgood

[Old#5fan]

Just when I thought you were just being your normal close-minded self, you then make a statement like this and jump right on the Crazy Train.

Although I tend to agree that high school first round picks are inherently risky, at no point do I want anyone telling Jordan who to pick or not to pick.

Well, I don't even know how to research this but perhaps someone here does but I have to wonder how many HS versus Non-HS Oriole draft picks have been sucessfull historically. If the odds are terrible it would seem to support staying away from them at least in the first round.

I do agree with you that I wouldn't want Mr. Angelos specifically telling Jordan or whoever is the Scouting director to pick or not to pick. It just seems like the Orioles sucess in drafting HS players in the first round is not acceptible but I am just going by recent picks I must admit. Does anyone know if Reimold was a HS pick? Or for that matter any current Oriole on the major league roster who was a HS draft pick by the Orioles? (Just wondering).

[napbow]

Well, I don't even know how to research this but perhaps someone here does but I have to wonder how many HS versus Non-HS Oriole draft picks have been sucessfull historically. If the odds are terrible it would seem to support staying away from them at least in the first round.

I do agree with you that I wouldn't want Mr. Angelos specifically telling Jordan or whoever is the Scouting director to pick or not to pick. It just seems like the Orioles sucess in drafting HS players in the first round is not acceptible but I am just going by recent picks I must admit. Does anyone know if Reimold was a HS pick? Or for that matter any current Oriole on the major league roster who was a HS draft pick by the Orioles? (Just wondering).

Brooks, Cal, Palmer, Eddie (some signed as free agents) came straight from high school if I remember correctly.

They had some success.

[Stotle]

I realize some sucessful major league pitchers have been big bodied. Mickey Lolich, Sid Fernandez, David Wells, CC Sabathia etc. come to mind. However, I wonder if these guys looked like the Pillsbury Doughboy in H.S.? If someone knows the answer to this and it is in the affirmative, I will stop worrying. Otherwise, I think this is at least a modest concern.

Strasburg was 6-4/230 (listed; actually closer to 240/5, if I recall) in high school and last year was called by some the best draft prospect of all time. Between HS and junior year of college he added around 7mph to his fastball by getting in better shape and continuing to develop. I acknowledge this isn't "typical", but it certainly happens.

I agree it's fair to call it a modest concern, and his work this off-season shold help O's fans get some comfort that the kid is willing to work and understands that nutrition/training are going to be a big part of determining whether he succeeds or fails.

[Frobby]

Brooks, Cal, Palmer, Eddie (some signed as free agents) came straight from high school if I remember correctly.

They had some success.

Oh yeah, them.

[LookinUp]

Even I'm questioning the validity of the 10% number if Hobgood himself is saying he was up to 22% by this winter. Not that I think my source was lying to me, it's just his information may have been wrong.

Either way, this appears to be something that Hobgood and the organization realizes they'll have to monitor and keep under control.

The best news in all of this is that Hobgood appears to be ready to put in the effort to do just that which would validate the Orioles opinion that he's first rate character guy.

Absolutely true on all accounts, particularly your last two paragraphs.

By the way, it's obviously understandable that not every measurable someone passes along to you will be accurate. It's not like you were out there checking the back of his arm yourself.

[LookinUp]

Well, I don't even know how to research this but perhaps someone here does but I have to wonder how many HS versus Non-HS Oriole draft picks have been sucessfull historically. If the odds are terrible it would seem to support staying away from them at least in the first round.

I do agree with you that I wouldn't want Mr. Angelos specifically telling Jordan or whoever is the Scouting director to pick or not to pick. It just seems like the Orioles sucess in drafting HS players in the first round is not acceptible but I am just going by recent picks I must admit. Does anyone know if Reimold was a HS pick? Or for that matter any current Oriole on the major league roster who was a HS draft pick by the Orioles? (Just wondering).

I remember some stats on this being posted in the Amateur Draft forum last year. It was interesting stuff. Maybe someone knows where to find that information and will post it here.

There are no absolutes. For example, we'd be stupid to pass on Josh Beckett out of high school just because he hadn't gone to college yet. I'd wager that the Marlins, Red Sox and each of their world series championships would say he was worth the #1 pick.

[Old#5fan]

Oh yeah, them.

Actually, I was thinking more recent like in the past twenty years although I know I didn't state that. I know Mussina, McDonald and Roberts were all College players. Not sure about Bedard. Ponson may have come straight from H.S. I believe. Someone has to know more on this subject than me speculating I am sure but they haven't responded yet.

[LookinUp]

Actually, I was thinking more recent like in the past twenty years although I know I didn't state that. I know Mussina, McDonald and Roberts were all College players. Not sure about Bedard. Ponson may have come straight from H.S. I believe. Someone has to know more on this subject than me speculating I am sure but they haven't responded yet.

You need to look beyond the O's. Until recently, they haven't done anything right in the player development side of things (college or high school).

[Old#5fan]

You need to look beyond the O's. Until recently, they haven't done anything right in the player development side of things (college or high school).

Well they have had some college players they drafted become sucessful major leaguers like Roberts, Markakis, and Wieters. (Again, not sure about Bedard and Jeffrey Hammonds). I just wonder have they had even on HS drafted player become a major leaguer with the Orioles in the past 20 years? If not that is just more indication they should stay the hell away from drafting them, especially in the first round.

[Tony-OH]

Well, I don't even know how to research this but perhaps someone here does but I have to wonder how many HS versus Non-HS Oriole draft picks have been sucessfull historically. If the odds are terrible it would seem to support staying away from them at least in the first round.

I do agree with you that I wouldn't want Mr. Angelos specifically telling Jordan or whoever is the Scouting director to pick or not to pick. It just seems like the Orioles sucess in drafting HS players in the first round is not acceptible but I am just going by recent picks I must admit. Does anyone know if Reimold was a HS pick? Or for that matter any current Oriole on the major league roster who was a HS draft pick by the Orioles? (Just wondering).

Let’s take a quick look at this through the Orioles drafts since 1990. During this time, the Orioles have drafted only two other high school pitchers in the first round, left-hander Richard Stahl in 1999, and Adam Loewen in 2002 (Loewen didn’t sign until after a JC season). Both were misses as number one draft picks mainly due to injuries (Loewen shoulder and Stahl’s back).

During this same, the Orioles have drafted five high school position players (Jasyon Werth and Darnell McDonald in ’97, Rick Elder in ’98, and Jordan’s selections of Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell in the ’05 and ’06 drafts respectively.

Out of those selections you can only classify Werth as a hit (although it happened outside of the organization), with Snyder an unknown still and Rowell an assumed miss.

Out of the seven high school players selected by the Orioles since 1990 prior to Hobgood, only one has become a good major league player and not with the Orioles.

Conversely, the Orioles have selected seven pitchers from four-year colleges (Mussina ’90, Powell ’93, Shepherd ’95, Paradise ’99, Townsend ’04 and Matusz ’08) and one from Junior College in Chris Smith (’01). By my account, that’s two major league starters in Mussina and Matusz and a reliever in Powell (500+ major league games). If you count Powell as a hit, that’s 3 hits out of 7 for college pitchers and 0-for-1 out of Junior College.

During this time the Orioles have selected six hitters from 4-yr colleges in (Mark Smith ’91, Hammonds ’92, Larry Bigbie and Keith Reed ’99, Mike Fontenot ’01 and Matt Wieters ’07) and one hitter for JC in Nick Markakis ’03. Although Hammonds never became the superstar most people though he would, he ended up with over 3000 major league at bats so he certainly qualifies as a hit. Bigbie had over 1300 big league at bats so he would qualify as a minor success as would Fontenot, but Smith and Reed were busts. Wieters obviously is a going to be hit.

By my tally that’s 2 hits and 2 minor hits out of six. The Orioles are 1-for-1 with JC hitters due to Markakis.

The scary part in all of this is that the Orioles have only drafted two All-Stars (Mussina and Hammonds with Colorado) during this time.

Thankfully, the Wieters and Matusz selections by Jordan looks like they may buck that trend soon.

If you go by the Orioles draft record since 1990, a college hitter has the best chance of being successful and a high school pitcher has the worse.

At the same time, the Orioles have drafted nine times in the top ten picks of the draft over this time period:

Hits:

Hammonds #4

Markakis #7

Wieters #5

Matusz #4

Misses:

M. Smith #9

C. Smith #7

Loewen #4

Townsend #8

Rowell #9

In the end, selecting a high school pitcher in the first round is always inherently risky and the Oriole have yet to draft and develop a high school first round pitcher who had any significant success in the major leagues since drafting Mike Parrot in 1973 (495 major league innings and a 4.87 ERA). If you want any real success you have to go back to Don Hood in 1969.

Obviously history is not really relevant when it comes to predicting success for Hobgood but it does show he’ll be the exception and not the norm if he makes it.

[Old#5fan]

Let’s take a quick look at this through the Orioles drafts since 1990. During this time, the Orioles have drafted only two other high school pitchers in the first round, left-hander Richard Stahl in 1999, and Adam Loewen in 2002 (Loewen didn’t sign until after a JC season). Both were misses as number draft picks mainly due to injuries (Loewen shoulder and Stahl’s back).

During this same, the Orioles have drafted five high school position players (Jasyon Werth and Darnell McDonald in ’97, Rick Elder in ’98, and Jordan’s selections of Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell in the ’05 and ’06 drafts respectively.

Out of those selections you can only classify Werth as a hit (although it happened outside of the organization), with Snyder and unknown still and Rowell an assumed miss.

Out of the seven high school players selected by the Orioles since 1990 prior to Hobgood, only one has become a good major league player and not with the Orioles.

Conversely, the Orioles have selected seven pitchers from four-year colleges (Mussina ’90, Powell ’93, Shepherd ’95, Paradise ’99, Townsend ’04 and Matusz ’08) and one from Junior College in Chris Smith (’01). By my account, that’s two major league starters in Mussina and Matusz and a reliever in Powell (500+ major league games). If you count Powell as a hit, that’s 3 hits out of 7 for college pitchers and 0-for-1 out of Junior College.

During this time the Orioles have selected six hitters from 4-yr colleges in (Mark Smith ’91, Hammonds ’92, Larry Bigbie and Keith Reed ’99, Mike Fontenot ’01 and Matt Wieters ’07) and one hitter for JC in Nick Markakis ’03. Although Hammonds never became the superstar most people though he would, he ended up with over 3000 major league at bats so he certainly qualifies as a hit. Bigbie had over 1300 big league at bats so he would qualify as a minor success as would Fontenot, but Smith and Reed were busts. Wieters obviously is a going to be hit.

By my tally that’s 2 hits and 2 minor hits out of six. The Orioles are 1-for-1 with JC hitters due to Markakis.

The scary part in all of this is that the Orioles have only drafted two All-Stars (Mussina and Hammonds with Colorado) during this time.

Thankfully, the Wieters and Matusz selections by Jordan looks like they may buck that trend soon.

If you go by the Orioles draft record since 1990, a college hitter has the best chance of being successful and a high school pitcher has the worse.

At the same time, the Orioles have drafted nine times in the top ten picks of the draft over this time period:

Hits:

Hammonds #4

Markakis #7

Wieters #5

Matusz #4

Misses:

M. Smith #9

C. Smith #7

Loewen #4

Townsend #8

Rowell #9

In the end, selecting a high school pitcher in the first round is always inherently risky and the Oriole have yet to draft and develop a high school first round pitcher who had any significant success in the major leagues since drafting Mike Parrot in 1973 (495 major league innings and a 4.87 ERA). If you want any real success you have to go back to Don Hood in 1969.

Obviously history is not really relevant when it comes to predicting success for Hobgood but it does show he’ll be the exception and not the norm if he makes it.

Wow, this is not only incredible detail but I am astonished how fast you came up with it! This is also astonishing in what it reveals and indeed does seem to show the tremendous risk in taking a HS player (especially a pitcher) in the first round.

Thanks for doing this as I knew it seemed high risk but I had no idea the history was this poor over the past 20 years. Great job and post!:clap3:

[LookinUp]

Wow, this is not only incredible detail but I am astonished how fast you came up with it! This is also astonishing in what it reveals and indeed does seem to show the tremendous risk in taking a HS player (especially a pitcher) in the first round.

Thanks for doing this as I knew it seemed high risk but I had no idea the history was this poor over the past 20 years. Great job and post!:clap3:

It's astonishing about the O's more than it is about MLB in general.

You can sum it up pretty easily: the O's have historically been unable to draft and develop players. That's why we've stunk for so long. Jordan, Stockstill et all need to do better with high school and college players if we're ever going to be good.

In other words, if we continue down the same road we went down in the past, it won't matter where we draft our players from, because they really aren't likely to develop, though those O's teams would be much better off with the lower ceiling but more polished college kids being added to our ranks.

[McLovin]

I am not stererotyping. You are blatantly exaggerating if think that is true.

No, you're definitely stereotyping.

When you form these beliefs that the 'average Joe' looks a particular way (in this case 'fit'), that's stereotyping. And you go one further by somehow suggesting that Hobgood is a bad draft pick because he doesn't toe the line when it comes to looking like the 'average Joe'.

Like I said, people are different. It's a scary thought, I know.

[TGO]

I was in the best shape of my life two years ago, at age 25. But I wasn't obese in high school. I guess I'm not "most people."

[Old#5fan]

No, you're definitely stereotyping.

When you form these beliefs that the 'average Joe' looks a particular way (in this case 'fit'), that's stereotyping. And you go one further by somehow suggesting that Hobgood is a bad draft pick because he doesn't toe the line when it comes to looking like the 'average Joe'.

Like I said, people are different. It's a scary thought, I know.

I did nothing of the sort. I said he appears overweight and out of shape and apparently I am not the only person who thinks so. The Orioles apparently think so as well which is why he is trying to shape up.

As far as "looking a certain way" you are trying to misportray me. If I said that the average HS male who played a sport was 6 foot and 160 pounds (across all high schools in the U.S.) that isn't stero typing it is an analysis of facts. (Don't quote me as that being accurate as I truly have no idea that is just a guess). If you have a problem with that type of statistical or comparison of the norm than you need to stop being so sensitive because there is nothing whatsover wrong with that statement.