Can you win with all defense and no offense SS?

[now]

A month and this war is still being waged?

Hey, a month later and LH is still hitting over .300.

As the average drops, so will his stock among the "What have you done for me lately" crowd ... of which I am a proud member (MiL stats and veteran track records notwithstanding).

In LH's case, "1/1000" is probably true for the long run. With each week above .300, however, those odds improve.

[Sports Guy]

Hey, a month later and LH is still hitting over .300.

As the average drops, so will his stock among the "What have you done for me lately" crowd ... of which I am a proud member (MiL stats and veteran track records notwithstanding).

In LH's case, "1/1000" is probably true for the long run. With each week above .300, however, those odds improve.

I am just so surprised to read this coming from you.

[NoVaO]

Sorry, but you didn't say where that quote came from. Which guy in the ATL organization were you quoting? Or was it some other organization's scout? Or were you just making it up? If you were just making it up, and pretending it's a fact, what was your basis for concluding that? Do you have anything to go on?

You sound pretty condescending with that answer. You asked an honest question and I answered it. Were you trying to set me up so you could say that I was just making it up or that I knew nobody in the organization? Whatever.

Source:

http://www.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/atl/y2006/m10/d12/c1710250.jsp

Each of these players was placed on waivers to allow greater flexibility with roster reconstruction

Hernandez's tremendous defensive skills caught Braves manager Bobby Cox's eye during Spring Training in 2004. But the 22-year-old shortstop still lacks the strength necessary to be a dependable offensive threat. In 453 combined at-bats with Richmond and Mississippi this year, he had just 22 extra-base hits -- 16 of which were doubles.

With Yunel Escobar and Elvis Andrus already in their Minor League system, the Braves had the necessary depth to allow them to take this risk of losing Hernandez, who hit .268 at Mississippi and .192 in just 73 at-bats at Richmond.

Also from the BA scouting report:

The youngest player in the Carolina League, he boosted his batting average 41 points from the previous season while continuing to shine on defense.

Of course, I didn't need these reports to tell me what I already knew. They liked his defense, but felt he was expendable. They know better than to give a player with a sub-.600 OPS in AA regular ABs at the MLB level. This should be common sense.

[Sports Guy]

You sound pretty condescending with that answer. You asked an honest question and I answered it. Were you trying to set me up so you could say that I was just making it up or that I knew nobody in the organization? Whatever.

Source:

http://www.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/atl/y2006/m10/d12/c1710250.jsp

Also from the BA scouting report:

The youngest player in the Carolina League, he boosted his batting average 41 points from the previous season while continuing to shine on defense.

Of course, I didn't need these reports to tell me what I already knew. They liked his defense, but felt he was expendable. They know better than to give a player with a sub-.600 OPS in AA regular ABs at the MLB level. This should be common sense.

Rshack? No way!

[RShack]

You sound pretty condescending with that answer. You asked an honest question and I answered it. Were you trying to set me up so you could say that I was just making it up or that I knew nobody in the organization? Whatever.

[source info deleted]

Sorry if I insulted you. You know as well as I do that it often happens that people just make stuff up and post it as it were fact. Since you are not somebody who routinely does that, I asked. Thanks for the source info.

Of course, I didn't need these reports to tell me what I already knew. They liked his defense, but felt he was expendable. They know better than to give a player with a sub-.600 OPS in AA regular ABs at the MLB level. This should be common sense.

Well, I'm of the opinion that numbers may or may not tell us everything. Don't misunderstand: I am not saying that his MiL numbers should be ignored. It's just that, for me personally, it's not great fun to pretend I'm smarter than people who may know more about the kid than I do. Given that I have zero access to any info except MiL numbers, I'm just curious about a couple things. Here's what I'm curious about:

1. Do poor MiL numbers for a previous highly-thought-of guy doom him to failure? If he was 27, I'd say "yep". But he's not: he started this season as a 22-year old. This means that the Braves opinion of him fell during the time he was 20 and 21. Is it possible for a 20-year old to hit the wall and plateau for a couple years, and then rise above that plateau? Is it possible that he never hit the wall before and thus didn't know how to overcome it? Is it possible that he might? I think that is indeed plausible, although I'm certainly not willing to bank on it. This is why I wish we knew more about the history of MiL players throughout history with similar profiles. Are there any cases of some young kid hitting a plateau but eventually becoming a less-than-crappy hitter? Given how life works in general, I'd think it's likely that there are some. Too bad we don't know.

2. If we put aside FO-bashing for just a moment, and instead pretend that we're DT with this kid as his SS, what would we hope for, and how would we try to get what we hope for? Given what little we know, I think the most reasonable aspiration is to have him be more like the other Little Looie (Aparicio). Whether he can do it or not is another question, but I think that's the only sensible thing to shoot for. One thing I'd do is have Crow work with him to cut down on the K's and increase the BB's. I think that just moderate progress there could raise his bat to Aparicio numbers or above. Another thing I don't know is whether the kid is fast. If he is, then I'd appoint BRob as his official big brother and send LH to BRob's unofficial base-stealing school. BRob's main base-stealing talent isn't about speed, it's about know-how. Does LH have something to learn from BRob about that? Beats me, but it seems plausible. (While I was at it, I think I'd send Nick to BRob's base-stealing school too.)

Sorry if this doesn't fit in with the general theme of saying how stupid the FO is, but these are the things I wonder about...

[longflyball]

If the Orioles are going to give 600 PA to hitters who do not hit well enough to be considered major league hitters (and who is bold enough to say they will not, given their track record and the organization's lack of talent), why not give them all to one player who plays the most important defensive position very well?

Before coming to the Orioles, Mike Bordick had a .653 OPS with Oakland and his defense wasn't nearly as good as Hernandez's defense is advertised to be. Bordick's OPS for the wire to wire 1997 Orioles was .601. In the last 6 years of his career, from age 32-37, Bordick raised his career OPS from .645 to .685.

What does Bordick prove? You can win with a no-hit SS if you have good hitters surrounding him, and no-hit SS can improve. If we are going to fret and stew about our lack of hitting, why not focus our attention on the positions that are supposed to be filled with good hitters (OF, 1B, 3B, and DH). If your offense is so bad you can't afford to start a no-hit SS, a no-hit SS is the least of your worries.

[Sports Guy]

Sorry if I insulted you. You know as well as I do that it often happens that people just make stuff up and post it as it were fact. Since you are not somebody who routinely does that, I asked. Thanks for the source info.

What NovaO said is common sense...He was young and he played very good defense.

If in fact the Braves were very high on him(btw, still waiting for YOUR proof of that), it is not difficult to look at his MiL numbers, see that is was a pathetic hitter and that they decided that he wasn't the player he was...Then they dropped him.

Hmmmmm....How could NovaO had figured that out all by himself?

[NewMarketSean]

Well, I'm of the opinion that numbers may or may not tell us everything. Don't misunderstand: I am not saying that his MiL numbers should be ignored. It's just that, for me personally, it's not great fun to pretend I'm smarter than people who may know more about the kid than I do. Given that I have zero access to any info except MiL numbers, I'm just curious about a couple things. Here's what I'm curious about:

As long as the guy is in good health and has a good mental make-up, what other info out there could render 2208 AB's with a .621 OPS useless? That was what I don't get... do you value abstract traits of players more than concrete statistics? I know that stats aren't always perfect, but they make a lot more sense than the "unknown traits" that you speak of.

1. Do poor MiL numbers for a previous highly-thought-of guy doom him to failure? If he was 27, I'd say "yep". But he's not: he started this season as a 22-year old. This means that the Braves opinion of him fell during the time he was 20 and 21. Is it possible for a 20-year old to hit the wall and plateau for a couple years, and then rise above that plateau? Is it possible that he never hit the wall before and thus didn't know how to overcome it? Is it possible that he might? I think that is indeed plausible, although I'm certainly not willing to bank on it. This is why I wish we knew more about the history of MiL players throughout history with similar profiles. Are there any cases of some young kid hitting a plateau but eventually becoming a less-than-crappy hitter? Given how life works in general, I'd think it's likely that there are some. Too bad we don't know.

That's the thing though... Luis Hernandez has NEVER, EVER come close to resembling a SS that could hit. He's never, at any stage had an OPS over .700 and as he rose in the MiL, his OPS went down. He's had some flukey success in his 62 AB's at the MLB level, but I'll bet you anything that once pitchers figure him out or just see him more, they will exploit him for the swiss cheese bat swinger he is. Is there a chance that he could become Mike Bordick? Yes, although those chances are very slim and not worth the risk IMO.

2. If we put aside FO-bashing for just a moment, and instead pretend that we're DT with this kid as his SS, what would we hope for, and how would we try to get what we hope for? Given what little we know, I think the most reasonable aspiration is to have him be more like the other Little Looie (Aparicio). Whether he can do it or not is another question, but I think that's the only sensible thing to shoot for. One thing I'd do is have Crow work with him to cut down on the K's and increase the BB's.

When has Crowley EVER increased someone's ability to draw walks? That's like asking a Muslim to start believing in Jesus Christ.

I think that just moderate progress there could raise his bat to Aparicio numbers or above.

Again, is it eve worth the time and investment? The best we could do with Luis is send him back down to Norfolk and see whether he improves down there or not.

Another thing I don't know is whether the kid is fast. If he is, then I'd appoint BRob as his official big brother and send LH to BRob's unofficial base-stealing school. BRob's main base-stealing talent isn't about speed, it's about know-how. Does LH have something to learn from BRob about that? Beats me, but it seems plausible. (While I was at it, I think I'd send Nick to BRob's base-stealing school too.)

Sorry if this doesn't fit in with the general theme of saying how stupid the FO is, but these are the things I wonder about...

The FO is stupid if they are going to waste time trying to develop a SS who has never shown any ability to hit.

[Chollie Eckman]

Wow, based on some of the posts in this thread you would think the consensus disagreed with the career baseball men. But then again the consensus here has never been wrong has it?

[Fan4Life]

The FO is stupid if they are going to waste time trying to develop a SS who has never shown any ability to hit.

The have expressed many times over that hitting isn't their primary priority. They may be stupid for having that outlook, but fulfilling it isn't stupid.

[NewMarketSean]

And how often have our career baseball men made the right decisions?

[Sports Guy]

Wow, based on some of the posts in this thread you would think the consensus disagreed with the career baseball men. But then again the consensus here has never been wrong has it?

Any career baseball men who make judgements on 60 or so ab's are not good baseball men.

[NewMarketSean]

The have expressed many times over that hitting isn't their primary priority. They may be stupid for having that outlook, but fulfilling it isn't stupid.

Wasting time developing a no-hit SS would be incredibly stupid even if you were the 1986 Pittsburgh Pirates or the 1997 Seattle Mariners.

[Chollie Eckman]

And how often have our career baseball men made the right decisions?

Are you talking about the current crop? I'd say the jury's out on them, but I be right in saying that their record is better than the OH consensus.

[Sports Guy]

The have expressed many times over that hitting isn't their primary priority. They may be stupid for having that outlook, but fulfilling it isn't stupid.

There is nothing wrong with improving the defense...I have been asking for it for years.

But you improve the defense with offensive players who can do something for you.