Don't trade RLo.

[Avsfan]

No one even laughed at my joke

[Nuclear Dish]

Exactly right. I like Loewen and Penn getting a chance, but we don't know that both of them will be servicable. There would be nothing surprising about needing another starter at some point, and I'd much rather have Rodrigo around than Ortiz.

If, as many suggest, Rodrigo won't net us much, then the only big reason for trading him before the off-season is to satisfy the "oooh, let's trade somebody" urge. If they can get somebody who actually adds value to the team this year and next, that's one thing. But this mad rush to make trades just for the sake of making trades is just silly. Doing that has become a fad around here, but it won't fix anything, and it could quite easily make things worse. You don't make trades to let some posters vent their spleen. You make trades to make the team better.

People wanted Matos gone. He's gone. Feel better? No. It's just time to move on to the next punching bag, that's all.

I suppose you ascribe to the opinion that there is no such thing as negative value in a player's performance? That getting anything at all out of a player is a positive gain for the team?

One of the stats I follow closely is Runs Created Above Average. Why above average and not above replacement level? Because the idea that Luis Matos is better than a replacement level player is flawed. It implies that he adds positive value to the team because he's better than some guy stuck in AAA who has no business being on a Major League roster.

If you look, instead, at his value versus the average Majoe Leaguer, he comes out as a negative. His mere presence in the lineup has cost us the chance to score runs more than it has positively enhanced those chances.

Rodrigo Lopez is a similar situation. He has hurt the team when he has pitched. Assuming that we can replace him with an average Major League pitcher (or even with someone who would hurt our chances at winning less than he does), we can be a better team without him.

The idea that we should trade him for a bag of balls has merit. Removing him from the roster and replacing him with a bag of balls means we will have to replace his innings with other, better pitchers. The bag of balls will, at the very least, not do any real damage to our chances of winning ballgames.

However, I do not suggest that we trade him for another below average player, unless we have someone ready in our system who can (even realistically potentially) outperform him. And it just so happens that we have two such pitchers ready in our system.

[RShack]

Rodrigo Lopez is a similar situation. He has hurt the team when he has pitched. Assuming that we can replace him with an average Major League pitcher (or even with someone who would hurt our chances at winning less than he does), we can be a better team without him.

Doesn't that come down to where you look? Over the last 8 weeks, he's had 2 starts that were absolutely terrible. In the other 7 starts, his ERA is under 3.30. His "recent OK-to-good" period is longer than was his "beginning of the season TNT" period. Doesn't that count for something? If it was a guy you liked, wouldn't you be looking at it closer than just superficial summary numbers? Based on how he's been after his terrible 1st 7 weeks, isn't he a lot better than Ortiz? (My questions are real questions, I'm not just fussin' at you ;-)

[Nuclear Dish]

Doesn't that come down to where you look? Over the last 8 weeks, he's had 2 starts that were absolutely terrible. In the other 7 starts, his ERA is under 3.30. His "recent OK-to-good" period is longer than was his "beginning of the season TNT" period. Doesn't that count for something? If it was a guy you liked, wouldn't you be looking at it closer than just superficial summary numbers? Based on how he's been after his terrible 1st 7 weeks, isn't he a lot better than Ortiz? (My questions are real questions, I'm not just fussin' at you ;-)

I tend to be a lot more forgiving of a prospect's poor stretches than I am of a veteran's, especially when the veteran is making millions more than the prospect. I agree that Ortiz is no better. Loewen or Penn might be or might not, but I'm willing to suffer the chance that they are not because they cost us millions less.

Overall, Lopez doesn't give me much hope that he's going to be any better than a poor pitcher. That's what his career numbers have always been, that's what his numbers have looked like overall this year, and even when he's been good, he hasn't been so good as to excite me to the point of needing to hold on to him if we can get some spare parts for him.

[NewMarketSean]

Doesn't that come down to where you look? Over the last 8 weeks, he's had 2 starts that were absolutely terrible. In the other 7 starts, his ERA is under 3.30. His "recent OK-to-good" period is longer than was his "beginning of the season TNT" period. Doesn't that count for something? If it was a guy you liked, wouldn't you be looking at it closer than just superficial summary numbers? Based on how he's been after his terrible 1st 7 weeks, isn't he a lot better than Ortiz? (My questions are real questions, I'm not just fussin' at you ;-)

If a team buys your fuzzy math, then trade Lopez as fast as you can say superficial.

[RShack]

I agree that Ortiz is no better. Loewen or Penn might be or might not, but I'm willing to suffer the chance that they are not because they cost us millions less.

I don't think he should stay at the cost of taking a slot from either Loewen or Penn. But I don't think he takes their slots.

I do think he should stay in place of Ortiz. I think the choice is between Rodrigo and Ortiz. Given that choice, I pick Rodrigo. This is because I don't think Ortiz can be expected to pitch a good game, while I do think the Rodrigo will pitch a good game most of the time.

Same thing re: Chen. I don't think either Ortiz or Chen are gonna help win ballgames. I think they both hurt the team when it comes to winning ballgames. Unlike Ortiz or Chen, I think Rodrigo will help the team a lot more often than he will hurt the team. Rodrigo is not the future, but that's not the issue. Ortiz and Chen aren't the future either, and they should go sooner than Rodrigo should go... unless we get some Actual Value for Rodrigo. But this "addition by subtraction" stuff about Rodrigo just doesn't make sense.

[Nuclear Dish]

I don't think he should stay at the cost of taking a slot from either Loewen or Penn. But I don't think he takes their slots.

I do think he should stay in place of Ortiz. I think the choice is between Rodrigo and Ortiz. Given that choice, I pick Rodrigo. This is because I don't think Ortiz can be expected to pitch a good game, while I do think the Rodrigo will pitch a good game most of the time.

I'm willing to agree with you on this point. But personally, I don't think either one of them is worth a Major League roster spot right now.

[Cokeman]

I don't think he should stay at the cost of taking a slot from either Loewen or Penn. But I don't think he takes their slots.

I do think he should stay in place of Ortiz. I think the choice is between Rodrigo and Ortiz. Given that choice, I pick Rodrigo. This is because I don't think Ortiz can be expected to pitch a good game, while I do think the Rodrigo will pitch a good game most of the time.

I would prefer to have Lopez instead of Ortiz too...but I would prefer to have Loewen AND Penn. So, in that sense, Lopez certainly is taking a slot from one of them.

[DrungoHazewood]

The only mis-evaluation in this case is on your end. As Jon pointed out, Rodrigo has a 5.55 ERA since the start of the '05 season, and he's been dreadful this year.

Except he's been great when you throw out the first two months, and all his bad starts since then.

[Nuclear Dish]

Except he's been great when you throw out the first two months, and all his bad starts since then.

Wow, if someone had just evaluated me based on those criteria when I was pitching in high school, I might have been drafted in the first round and be a millionaire right now!

[Avsfan]

Except he's been great when you throw out the first two months, and all his bad starts since then.

Then the Wednesday's when it thunderstorms, but doesn't rain.

[RShack]

I would prefer to have Lopez instead of Ortiz too...but I would prefer to have Loewen AND Penn. So, in that sense, Lopez certainly is taking a slot from one of them.

I don't see how. I think Lopez takes a slot from either Ortiz and Chen, and I think he should.

[The Goob]

I don't see how. I think Lopez takes a slot from either Ortiz and Chen, and I think he should.

The rotation in the second half should be Bedard, Benson, DC, Loewen, Penn. At no time once Penn is fully healthy in a few weeks should Lopez or Ortiz be in the rotation.

[RShack]

The rotation in the second half should be Bedard, Benson, DC, Loewen, Penn. At no time once Penn is fully healthy in a few weeks should Lopez or Ortiz be in the rotation.

If those 5 guys are healthy and doing even semi-OK, I think most everybody agrees with this. I certainly do.

[Nuclear Dish]

I don't see how. I think Lopez takes a slot from either Ortiz and Chen, and I think he should.

Chen's another one who should go. You keep naming pitchers who RLo can replace, but given the choice, I'd replace them with minor leaguers and remove RLo as well.