MacPhail: "We've taken a giant step backwards."

[Going Underground]

I know I am jumping into this thread kind of late here, but I have to address this post.

This is the second time I have seen you use this "statistic" to support your argument that the Orioles should be spending more.

The fact that the census has us rated as the "richest state in the U.S." doesn't relate at ALL to how much the Orioles can spend. I mean, Maryland could be the richest region in the entire world and it doesn't correlate at all to how much the Orioles spend.

My point is, just because we are deemed to be the "richest" doesn't mean that people are spending their money on the Orioles. Not only that, but in the article it says that Calvert, Howard, and Montgomery counties have been in the top 10 richest counties in the country. The census uses an average of the counties' worth and applies it to the state. Therefore, those three counties alone could be throwing off the value of the rest of the state due to their worth.

And in response to your statement regarding Boston...last time I checked there are a lot of bandwagon Red Sox fans that don't live in MA, but buy a lot of their merchandise and such. Why do you think NYY are valued as high as they are by Forbes? Just because the team is located in NY???

So please STOP using this as support for your reasoning that the Orioles should spend more because it has NOTHING to do with their revenue/payroll.

I think it really dosen't matter. We win or at least be competetive,the fans would come back. This year I think the fans wanted to believe but the start has killed the hopes.

[msporter4]

I think trades have to be rated 2 ways. At the time of the deal and then a few years later when we see what both teams did or didn't get out of the trade.

There is still time for the O's to get a lot out of the deal with Jones & Tillman.

But one thing is for sure -- a lot of pedals have fallen off the rose.

Yeah, it doesn't even taste as good as a bloomin onion.

[BrunoCherrytown]

God, I love to hear people on here talk about MacPhail's time in Chicago. It's like the guy held every damn position with that team all simultaneously.

So you don't lend any credence to the fact that just like in Chicago - the payroll is awful and the international presence is a joke?

We can't give him credit for Matusz if we don't give him credit for crappy drafting in Chicago.

Fair is fair.

[RenegadeOsFan]

Wieters will be fine. He's seeing the ball well and getting on base. The lack of power has been a disappointment, but I wonder with the team struggling so bad to just find hits that he's giving up something in the power department in order to just get on base. I believe the power will be there in time and he's certainly a big part of our future.

I agree Tony. I think the power will come back as well when the rest of the team starts to play up to par. Right now it seems teams are either pitching around him in a way, or just giving him a constant dose of breaking balls.

This slump just seems to be a lingering virus on the team that everyone is succeptable to and can't be cured right now.

[foxfield]

Really? Clearly you can call trades at the time they happen there Notrofrickin'domus. Can you grade out some drafts right after they happen and then tell everyone it's hindsight if it doesn't work out as well?

You grade trades and moves a few years down the road when you see how they work out. You can say the trade was a great concept at the time, but if Jones, Tillman and Bell don't work out, it's not a good trade. We got a tremendous amount of potential for Bedard, but unless they can become impact players at the major league level the trade was not good.

Saying the trade was amazing and no matter what happens after wards is ridiculous.

Your points here are right on. However, it fails to take into account the most critical issue. We will certainly stop calling the trade a fleece of the Mariners if none of the potential players turn into impact players.

But at the same time, the Mariners are not competitive because of the trade. The fact is they are competitive in spite of the trade. Bedard has done nothing for them. Unless HE does something else, we have already gotten more than we gave up.

Does it look as good today? Nothing looks good today. All of us are so tired of being bad. We are grasping at straws....or rocks really to throw anywhere just trying to hit something.

The trade still goes down as awesome in my book and if all of the potential doesn't really materialize...well that was part of the risk. About the only thing that would change that for me is if Bedard comes back strong this year and then wins the Cy Young next year. It could happen, but probably not.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I know I am jumping into this thread kind of late here, but I have to address this post.

This is the second time I have seen you use this "statistic" to support your argument that the Orioles should be spending more.

The fact that the census has us rated as the "richest state in the U.S." doesn't relate at ALL to how much the Orioles can spend. I mean, Maryland could be the richest region in the entire world and it doesn't correlate at all to how much the Orioles spend.

My point is, just because we are deemed to be the "richest" doesn't mean that people are spending their money on the Orioles. Not only that, but in the article it says that Calvert, Howard, and Montgomery counties have been in the top 10 richest counties in the country. The census uses an average of the counties' worth and applies it to the state. Therefore, those three counties alone could be throwing off the value of the rest of the state due to their worth.

And in response to your statement regarding Boston...last time I checked there are a lot of bandwagon Red Sox fans that don't live in MA, but buy a lot of their merchandise and such. Why do you think NYY are valued as high as they are by Forbes? Just because the team is located in NY???

So please STOP using this as support for your reasoning that the Orioles should spend more because it has NOTHING to do with their revenue/payroll.

What factors would you use?

HHI of the average potential fan is a pretty good statistic.

Geographic location as compared to the competition. Population in those geographic areas. All good stuff.

We don't have much competition south of us besides the Nationals. West we've got a bit of legroom. We even have Southern PA.

Our RSN reaches pretty far and has 2 teams. There is a HUGE potential fan base. POTENTIAL. Gotta spend to realize potential.

And if you don't like my HHI statistic you can not like my other one more that I use here. That MASN has created the #4 media market in America by potential household viewers. But that's a potential again there. Boston is #7. But why watch a crappy product on TV.

Forbes "value" of a franchise doesn't have anything to do with profitability. If Angelos is collecting rev share checks does that increase the value of the team? Nope.

A huge public company can have a huge value and not be profitable for years while a small company with a small value can spend no money and be quite profitable for years.

Redskins seem to have a nice franchise value compared to other football teams. I believe they are #2 behind the Cowboys. Ravens are up there too. And that's not Football to Baseball...that's Football to Football comparison.

And I made this point earlier on a different thread...I live in South Florida. I have 2 Ravens bars within 5 miles of my house. One is owned by a former Dolphins player...I have a breakfast location near my house that has tons of Ravens gear and bobble heads...

There is no Orioles anything to be found anywhere. Yet there are Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs bars.

So by your logic we have the potential for "bandwagon" fans in football but none in baseball even though serious teams do?

So what is your reason we can't spend more? It can't be "just because our fans may have more money in certain areas - they don't choose to spend it on the O's"...why do you think that is? Because they suck every year and exhibit cheapness on every decision.

You saying fans discretionary spending habits are just massively different here than say in NY or Boston?

[MemorialStadKid]

Agreed! As much as I hate to admit it, Drew's opinion that MacPhail was brought on board to drive down the team payroll appears more and more to be a possibility rather than a shot at the owner.

I've been saying this for the last year or so.

People said I was crazy.

Time will prove of a lot those "conspiracies" true.

MSK

[TGO]

Really? Clearly you can call trades at the time they happen there Notrofrickin'domus. Can you grade out some drafts right after they happen and then tell everyone it's hindsight if it doesn't work out as well?

You grade trades and moves a few years down the road when you see how they work out. You can say the trade was a great concept at the time, but if Jones, Tillman and Bell don't work out, it's not a good trade. We got a tremendous amount of potential for Bedard, but unless they can become impact players at the major league level the trade was not good.

Saying the trade was amazing and no matter what happens after wards is ridiculous.

Even if you want to evaluate the trade in hindsight, which I don't really agree with doing, it's still a great trade. Bedard was worth 3 wins over 2008-09. Jones 3.8 and Sherrill about 1.5 on top of that. We are already in "gravy" land here. Remember that you can't count anything Bedard does from here out because the M's had to sign him to a new contract.

[Left Field]

This whole situation seems to be a classic "chicken or the egg" theory.

Club Payroll - We cannot or will not spend big time $$ because we do not have the resources that the other top teams have. The reason that the other teams have the resources that they do is because they have established a winning tradition over the past two decades that have led to higher merchandise, ticket and marketing sales.

Free Agency - Because of our abysmal record and bumbling front office for the latter part of two decades, no one wants to come here. The only way we can get anyone to sign is if we severely overpay. That's why you get the horrendous contracts that were posted earlier in this thread. The other teams with better records, fan base and more $$ from reaping the benefits of being good can sign the high quality players much easier.

Front Office/Coaching - It has become painfully obvious to me that this team might not have the type of people required in key positions to be successful. AM might not be the guy to get this done. DT was a lame duck since the end of last season. This org. has stated that they have wanted to adopt a new plan (ie. Tampa Bay model) then what had been practiced throughout the losing seasons. The problem is that we have generally the same front office (Angelos boys), scouting Dept. and minor league instructors from the time period. A tiger can't change his stripes.

Which leads me to my original point. If you think this team will be competing next year, your nuts. There are too many holes that need to be filled via FA in the positional player area for us to be even decent. We have nothing in the minors as far as Pos. players. We cannot attract the high quality FA's because we are not good and frankly no one wants to come here until we are. So, that presents a problem that I don't really have an answer to.

[Dipper9]

I applaud you for your patience...but really, when have we been proven wrong by this team? When have they ever dug themselves out of a hole? When have they ever gone on an elongated period of good baseball??? You think they are going to recover from a 4-18 start?

Maybe I am just being too negative again...but come on. We are 4-18!!!

It's time to fire Trembley and every other coach aside from Kranitz. It's time to try something different to save this season...and then next off season, I think the O's should go to a self-help seminar or something. Go see Tony Robbins.

something.

Losing, is a disease....

[MemorialStadKid]

Our RSN reaches pretty far and has 2 teams. There is a HUGE potential fan base. POTENTIAL. Gotta spend to realize potential.

There is no Orioles anything to be found anywhere. Yet there are Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs bars.

So by your logic we have the potential for "bandwagon" fans in football but none in baseball even though serious teams do?

So what is your reason we can't spend more? It can't be "just because our fans may have more money in certain areas - they don't choose to spend it on the O's"...why do you think that is? Because they suck every year and exhibit cheapness on every decision.

You saying fans discretionary spending habits are just massively different here than say in NY or Boston?

You make excellent points, but the problem is that up until recently, Andy MacPhail was a sacrosanct figure amongst many here on the OH. If you said anything about the man that didn't laud his baseball acumen, you were considered ignorant, troll-like or otherwise grossly uninformed.

Now, as the luster wears off, more and more people are beginning to see what many of us have been saying for quite some time: that AM is NOT going to build the Orioles into a contending baseball team because he is risk-averse and ridiculously conservative in the FA market to the point where we sign guys like Adam Eaton or Garrett Atkins.

Some fans act like Peter Angelos has $5 in the bank and the Orioles are on the brink of bankruptcy. The "we can't spend" mentality is one of the many, many excuses that become free passes for AM and Angelos to continually mismanage the franchise.

When I lived in NYC, there was a Ravens bar. Now that I am in Los Angeles, I saw Ravens fans all over the area during last year's playoff run. When a TEAM WINS fans will support them. The idea that the Orioles can't spend MORE MONEY and spend the MONEY THEY HAVE BETTER is something that gets lost in the translation around here.

I still don't get why so many don't understand that simple idea.

If the Orioles win games, old fans will come back and new fans will be generated. It happens all the time with all kinds of professional sports teams. Apparently, the powers that be in the warehouse are content with watching the continued implosion of what was one of the greatest baseball teams in history.

The only entertainment value I get is to see people still make excuses for Andy MacPhail's lousy FA signings and unwillingness to make major moves.

MSK

[BrunoCherrytown]

This whole situation seems to be a classic "chicken or the egg" theory.

Club Payroll - We cannot or will not spend big time $$ because we do not have the resources that the other top teams have. The reason that the other teams have the resources that they do is because they have established a winning tradition over the past two decades that have led to higher merchandise, ticket and marketing sales.

Why would any large number of fans pay for an inferior product? That's not how any other business works if there is a better product at a comparable price.

You have to spend...

Biscotti said he'd be willing to lose money to put a winning team on the field.

Dr. Jerry Buss' Lakers are rumored to have lost money after they signed Lamar Odom to the extension.

The O's - swimming in profitability every year while the team drowns.

You have to have years where you lose money to expand a business. The O's need to treat their organization like it's a grand opening. That means sitting in the red for 1-2 years because the long term payoffs of spending result in increased revenue from the team's improvement.

But the O's honestly look like they are hoarding every penny they can. Going cheap on international prospects...shying away from any legit free agents because of price tag.

Although some posters do like to brag about not selling the naming rights to Camden Yards for a quick buck.

I could see it though: Dollar Store Yards...seems fitting.

[MemorialStadKid]

Biscotti said he'd be willing to lose money to put a winning team on the field.

Dr. Jerry Buss' Lakers are rumored to have lost money after they signed Lamar Odom to the extension.

The O's - swimming in profitability every year while the team drowns.

You have to have years where you lose money to expand a business. The O's need to treat their organization like it's a grand opening. That means sitting in the red for 1-2 years because the long term payoffs of spending result in increased revenue from the team's improvement.

But the O's honestly look like they are hoarding every penny they can. Going cheap on international prospects...shying away from any legit free agents because of price tag.

Once again, great points. Let's see what the MacPhail brigade comes up with now.

MSK

[RenegadeOsFan]

What factors would you use?

HHI of the average potential fan is a pretty good statistic.

Geographic location as compared to the competition. Population in those geographic areas. All good stuff.

We don't have much competition south of us besides the Nationals. West we've got a bit of legroom. We even have Southern PA.

Our RSN reaches pretty far and has 2 teams. There is a HUGE potential fan base. POTENTIAL. Gotta spend to realize potential.

And if you don't like my HHI statistic you can not like my other one more that I use here. That MASN has created the #4 media market in America by potential household viewers. But that's a potential again there. Boston is #7. But why watch a crappy product on TV.

Forbes "value" of a franchise doesn't have anything to do with profitability. If Angelos is collecting rev share checks does that increase the value of the team? Nope.

A huge public company can have a huge value and not be profitable for years while a small company with a small value can spend no money and be quite profitable for years.

Redskins seem to have a nice franchise value compared to other football teams. I believe they are #2 behind the Cowboys. Ravens are up there too. And that's not Football to Baseball...that's Football to Football comparison.

And I made this point earlier on a different thread...I live in South Florida. I have 2 Ravens bars within 5 miles of my house. One is owned by a former Dolphins player...I have a breakfast location near my house that has tons of Ravens gear and bobble heads...

There is no Orioles anything to be found anywhere. Yet there are Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs bars.

So by your logic we have the potential for "bandwagon" fans in football but none in baseball even though serious teams do?

So what is your reason we can't spend more? It can't be "just because our fans may have more money in certain areas - they don't choose to spend it on the O's"...why do you think that is? Because they suck every year and exhibit cheapness on every decision.

You saying fans discretionary spending habits are just massively different here than say in NY or Boston?

First off, I do like reading most of the posts that you make. A lot are very interesting and informative. However, none of this post responded to the actual points I made in my post and I don't know where you got most of the points you claim I made in my original post.

Secondly, I never offered "what factors" we should use. The reason I responded the way I did to your post is because you keep posting and complaining about how we don't spend money like we should and blah blah blah, but the data you used to support your argument is simply conjecture.

You are assuming that because the Orioles have a far reach in their media market that they can spend more. Well, a point in the contrary is that having a TV network that reaches across the entire country doesn't mean jack if no one watches it.

You state you have to "spend to realize potential." Huh? You again are assuming here that spending will result in potential which means more people watching. I think you are talking about spending as in payroll here. How will having a higher payroll mean that the more people will watch TV?? Because we will have bigger name players?? Because we will win more games?? Again, all of this is speculation and assumption.

Going on you then state in the post I am quoting, "Redskins seem to have a nice franchise value compared to other football teams. I believe they are #2 behind the Cowboys." I am not trying to be rude, but I have not clue as to what point you are trying to make here with relation to the football, the Ravens, and other teams to the situation the Orioles are in.

"So by your logic we have the potential for "bandwagon" fans in football but none in baseball even though serious teams do?" What??? I am not sure where you are getting this from, but I did not make any kind of statement that would correlate into this sort of statement. You pulled out Stretch-Armstrong for this one from what I wrote. But I think what you are saying is that winning breeds more fans, and that is true, yes I agree, I agree 110%. However, I never stated in my post anything along these lines.

In response to your question of why we cannot spend more, well I am not sure why we cannot spend more and I am not going to someone who just throws out guessing, ideas, and random facts that can be used to show that we should be spending more. What I do know for a fact, is that attendance has crashed and the Orioles seem hesitant to spend the kind of money a franchise such as the NYY or Red Sox are willing to throw out there.

"You saying fans discretionary spending habits are just massively different here than say in NY or Boston?" I was not saying anything like this. I was just saying that you can't simply use the fact that Maryland is the richest state to justify why the Orioles should spend more because there are fans who live outside of the state, such as yourself, and there are a lot of people in the state that aren't fans or are fans who don't want to spend money on the team.

Your original post stated that because Maryland is the richest state, then the Orioles should spend more. I was simply asking you to stop using that course of reasoning because it had no direct correlation to how the Orioles spend their money, it is pure conjecture.

[Left Field]

Why would any large number of fans pay for an inferior product? That's not how any other business works if there is a better product at a comparable price.

You have to spend...

Biscotti said he'd be willing to lose money to put a winning team on the field.

Dr. Jerry Buss' Lakers are rumored to have lost money after they signed Lamar Odom to the extension.

The O's - swimming in profitability every year while the team drowns.

You have to have years where you lose money to expand a business. The O's need to treat their organization like it's a grand opening. That means sitting in the red for 1-2 years because the long term payoffs of spending result in increased revenue from the team's improvement.

But the O's honestly look like they are hoarding every penny they can. Going cheap on international prospects...shying away from any legit free agents because of price tag.

Although some posters do like to brag about not selling the naming rights to Camden Yards for a quick buck.

I could see it though: Dollar Store Yards...seems fitting.

I agree. I guess I am starting to realize that we are in year two or three of a seven to nine year rebuilding plan if we make all the right decisions. That's a bitter pill to swallow.