2nd and 3rd, nobody out; Jones, Markakis and Wieters all K

[Lucky Jim]

Even if not, at least as a fan I'd feel we scored when we had an excellent opportunity to do so.

It's always about you, isn't it Frobby?

Seriously, I agree that altering one event in a change of events can certainly change subsequent outcomes.

[AgentOrange]

And let's say that just Nick grounds out and we end up with 1 run...What does that do?

We would have ended up with 2 runs because 1 already scored. We would have still been up 2-0.

[DuffMan]

It's always about you, isn't it Frobby?

Seriously, I agree that altering one event in a change of events can certainly change subsequent outcomes.

We would have ended up with 2 runs because 1 already scored. We would have still been up 2-0.

And maybe being up 2-0 leads to Jones not taking such an aggressive angle on that triple and keeps the ball in front of him limiting Cervelli to a single or a double.

[Frobby]

Here's a few pertinent tidbits.

With a runner on third and less than 2 outs, Frank Robinson advanced the runner 47% of the time, compared to the league average of 48% over his career. Brooks Robinson advanced the runner 48% of the time, the league average.

Adam Jones has advanced the runner 51% of the time in his career, equal to the league average over his career. Nick Markakis advanced the runner 58% of the time, better than the league average of 51% over his career.

The first thing that's interesting here is that overall, players are actually slightly better today at advancing runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs than they were in the 1960's and 70's. The league average was 48% when Frank and Brooks played, and it's 51% today.

The second thing that's interesting is that of the four players mentioned, only Markakis has departed significantly from the league average, and he is significantly better than average.

I'm also slightly surprised that the overall success rate is only about 50/50. Even so, that means that when there is a runner on 3rd and nobody out, the chances that one of the next two guys is going to get the run in is about 75%. Which is why last night was so frustrating.

[Dipper9]

Here's a few pertinent tidbits.

With a runner on third and less than 2 outs, Frank Robinson advanced the runner 47% of the time, compared to the league average of 48% over his career. Brooks Robinson advanced the runner 48% of the time, the league average.

Adam Jones has advanced the runner 51% of the time in his career, equal to the league average over his career. Nick Markakis advanced the runner 58% of the time, better than the league average of 51% over his career.

The first thing that's interesting here is that overall, players are actually slightly better today at advancing runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs than they were in the 1960's and 70's. The league average was 48% when Frank and Brooks played, and it's 51% today.

The second thing that's interesting is that of the four players mentioned, only Markakis has departed significantly from the league average, and he is significantly better than average.

I'm also slightly surprised that the overall success rate is only about 50/50. Even so, that means that when there is a runner on 3rd and nobody out, the chances that one of the next two guys is going to get the run in is about 75%. Which is why last night was so frustrating.

Just proves SG's point....there is another pretty darn good ballplayer 60.5 feet away from the batter who is trying just as hard to keep the runs from scoring.

[Frobby]

Just proves SG's point....there is another pretty darn good ballplayer 61.5 feet away from the batter who is trying just as hard to keep the runs from scoring.

What, he's standing a foot behind the rubber? Balk!

[Mackus]

What, he's standing a foot behind the rubber? Balk!

No, but the batter usually sets up about a foot behind the plate.

[RHall31]

Here's a few pertinent tidbits.

With a runner on third and less than 2 outs, Frank Robinson advanced the runner 47% of the time, compared to the league average of 48% over his career. Brooks Robinson advanced the runner 48% of the time, the league average.

Adam Jones has advanced the runner 51% of the time in his career, equal to the league average over his career. Nick Markakis advanced the runner 58% of the time, better than the league average of 51% over his career.

The first thing that's interesting here is that overall, players are actually slightly better today at advancing runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs than they were in the 1960's and 70's. The league average was 48% when Frank and Brooks played, and it's 51% today.

The second thing that's interesting is that of the four players mentioned, only Markakis has departed significantly from the league average, and he is significantly better than average.

I'm also slightly surprised that the overall success rate is only about 50/50. Even so, that means that when there is a runner on 3rd and nobody out, the chances that one of the next two guys is going to get the run in is about 75%. Which is why last night was so frustrating.

These stats are career stats for Frank and Brooks, so they include their later

years when both players declined somewhat. It's a little misleading to compare 3-4 year stats to 20-24 year spans. Also, many factors favored the pitchers back then compared to today.

[Lucky Jim]

These stats are career stats for Frank and Brooks, so they include their later

years when both players declined somewhat. It's a little misleading to compare 3-4 year stats to 20-24 year spans. Also, many factors favored the pitchers back then compared to today.

[Edit:] It seems like you're missing the bigger point: neither Brooks nor Frank were much different than league average. Of all of them, only Markakis is better than league average. Now, there may be a bell curve, and there may be yearly variation, but the point is really that there's not a lot of difference regarding this one skill. (So, yeah, you're right, a little misleading.)

In the end, he's not comparing Frank to Nick, he's comparing both to the relevant pool of players in the proper historical context.

Frobby, can you look at the yearly?

[Frobby]

[Edit:] It seems like you're missing the bigger point: neither Brooks nor Frank were much different than league average. Of all of them, only Markakis is better than league average. Now, there may be a bell curve, and there may be yearly variation, but the point is really that there's not a lot of difference regarding this one skill. (So, yeah, you're right, a little misleading.)

In the end, he's not comparing Frank to Nick, he's comparing both to the relevant pool of players in the proper historical context.

Frobby, can you look at the yearly?

Yes. In 1966, Frank advanced runners 58% of the time, Brooks 46% of the time. The team as a whole averaged 51% compared to the 47% league average that year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1966-batting.shtml (Scroll down to "Team PH/HR/Situational Hitting" and look in the columns on the RH side for "advances" to find the information.) You could look it up for any other year.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes. In 1966, Frank advanced runners 58% of the time, Brooks 46% of the time. The team as a whole averaged 51% compared to the 47% league average that year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1966-batting.shtml (Scroll down to "Team PH/HR/Situational Hitting" and look in the columns on the RH side for "advances" to find the information.) You could look it up for any other year.

Thanks, couldn't find it.

In 1967 Frank did it at a 51% clip. In 1968 at a 47% clip. At 38, in 1974, he did it at a 58% clip.

[RHall31]

Yes. In 1966, Frank advanced runners 58% of the time, Brooks 46% of the time. The team as a whole averaged 51% compared to the 47% league average that year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1966-batting.shtml (Scroll down to "Team PH/HR/Situational Hitting" and look in the columns on the RH side for "advances" to find the information.) You could look it up for any other year.

Lots of info there, thanks for posting the link. After surfing around for awhile, I was amazed at how close Ripken and Murray were in some these situtations

in certain years.

[Hank Scorpio]

How are we advancing runners this year?

Geez I'm afraid to ask.

[Sports Guy]

OMG!!!!

Cano, the best hitter in the AL right now, just swung and missed at a nasty breaking ball that was clearly low and a ball and he did it with a RISP!!!!!!...HE SUCKS!!!!!!!

[Frobby]

How are we advancing runners this year?

Geez I'm afraid to ask.

46%, vs. league average 47% so far, in advancing runners from 3rd. The Yankees by comparison are at 53%. More importantly, New York has been in that situation (runner on 3rd, less than 2 out) 59 times. We've only been in that situation 46 times.