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Overdrafts...

I'm not terribly knowledgeable about the system of the Red Sox. But I read this interesting article on Fangraphs.

The article points to over drafts from rounds 3 or later in the last 3 years. In these overdrafts alone the Red Sox have paid out about 10 million over those years.

Of the names...Westmoreland was the one I recognized and he's out for obvious health reasons (I do hope he recovers).

The question at the beginning of the article asks if Boston got it's money worth for that $10 mill they invested. The author never really answers. He just does a bio, but never gives a solid example of money well spent or not. Just a brief profile on each player.

For example:

7th round – Madison Younginer, RHP, S.C. HS ($975,000)

Challenged with an assignment to the New York-Penn League for his first taste of pro ball in 2010, the 19-year-old hurler currently has a 7.60 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 23.2 innings. He’s struggled a bit with his control but he’s shown a nice ground-ball rate at 59%. In the low minors, high ground-ball rates can hurt pitchers with poor defenses behind them (as well as poorly maintained fields).

Can some of the guys that follow the minors chime in quickly about some value here. I think if Westmoreland gets healthy it shows that all that money spent was probably worthwhile. If you can get one more than average, long term ball player it seems like it a good investment.

Should the O's implement a more aggressive system like this? Do they already?

Just wondering what some others thought. I know this has been discussed so I'd be happy to her the analysis with some numbers of salary spent and performance to go with what I've read in other threads.

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You can't judge a draft after just 3 years, especially not later round picks who were likely mostly high school kids. The more recent two drafts are obviously even less able to be accurately judged.

Its something that you have to be 5+ years out from to really start having a good idea over just how good or bad it was or how much return you got on your investment.

Considering that you really only need about 2 WAR total from the entire class to justify the added cost, I think worst case is probably breaking even from spending that much money. If you get even one player who is an average starter, you're talking about 4-6 years of about 1.5-2.5 WAR a year.

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Well, there are a couple of things to take from the fangraphs article. 1 being that none of these kids are sure things. I mean, even the top 5 HS pitchers from 09 aren't exactly tearing things up, but that is also something that a lot of people don't understand. With HS players, it normally takes some time for them to really get acclimated to pro ball, so now is not the time to really make a concrete conclusion. Of course you have some guys that come in right off bat and are successful, but normally you can expect to see some struggles. This is why you have to really get yourself a good prospect with your first couple of picks because there is a reason that a "highly touted" HS kid isn't drafted in the first few rounds when others are. That means that 30 teams felt that the risk/reward wasn't worth the percieved asking price. Every good prospect out of HS has a commitment to some college program for the most part and will have to be signed away from that college, therefore having signability issues of some sort(usually).

Donovan Tate is a good example, regardless of his heavy commitment to UNC, he was still projected as a top 5 pick. His talent at the time was worth the high asking price, atleast according to some scouts and some teams, and even still, he hasn't exactly set the world on fire.

These later round overslot picks don't always equate to a good pro prospect, but this is why your scouting department is so important. It is also important that like I said you get the good prospect in the first few rounds, and then augment those picks with good overslot signings later on. Those overslot picks are far from sure things, but when you do hit on a good prospect(like Westmoreland) it is well well worth it......

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Overdrafts...

I'm not terribly knowledgeable about the system of the Red Sox. But I read this interesting article on Fangraphs.

The article points to over drafts from rounds 3 or later in the last 3 years. In these overdrafts alone the Red Sox have paid out about 10 million over those years.

Of the names...Westmoreland was the one I recognized and he's out for obvious health reasons (I do hope he recovers).

The question at the beginning of the article asks if Boston got it's money worth for that $10 mill they invested. The author never really answers. He just does a bio, but never gives a solid example of money well spent or not. Just a brief profile on each player.

For example:

Can some of the guys that follow the minors chime in quickly about some value here. I think if Westmoreland gets healthy it shows that all that money spent was probably worthwhile. If you can get one more than average, long term ball player it seems like it a good investment.

Should the O's implement a more aggressive system like this? Do they already?

Just wondering what some others thought. I know this has been discussed so I'd be happy to her the analysis with some numbers of salary spent and performance to go with what I've read in other threads.

I can speak some on Younginer, as I liked him out of HS. He's guilty mostly of inconsistency thus far, as he's put together some very impressive starts and some absolute laughers. Keeping in mind that BOS is looking to slowly stretch him out (and also limiting his per-game throws), he's likely being left in longer than he would if W/L was the focus, and he's likely being pulled early in some cases once he hits his pitch limit (even if still effective):

Three solid starts:

5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO

4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO

5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO

Three stinkers:

3.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

3.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 SO

3.1 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

So, yeah, early to really tell much. But not unexpected to see inconsistencies from a HSer that had a limited 2-pitch repertoire coming out of the draft but good arm strength and projection in his stuff.

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I can speak some on Younginer, as I liked him out of HS. He's guilty mostly of inconsistency thus far, as he's put together some very impressive starts and some absolute laughers. Keeping in mind that BOS is looking to slowly stretch him out (and also limiting his per-game throws), he's likely being left in longer than he would if W/L was the focus, and he's likely being pulled early in some cases once he hits his pitch limit (even if still effective):

Three solid starts:

5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO

4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO

5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO

Three stinkers:

3.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

3.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 SO

3.1 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO

So, yeah, early to really tell much. But not unexpected to see inconsistencies from a HSer that had a limited 2-pitch repertoire coming out of the draft but good arm strength and projection in his stuff.

Interesting...comparatively to the Orioles draft over signings by the Orioles how much are we lagging in terms of dollars? Does anyone have the short term knowledge of how much over slotting we've done over the last 3 years? If the Red Sox have done 10 mill have we done anything close to that like AM said to season ticket holders?

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Interesting...comparatively to the Orioles draft over signings by the Orioles how much are we lagging in terms of dollars? Does anyone have the short term knowledge of how much over slotting we've done over the last 3 years? If the Red Sox have done 10 mill have we done anything close to that like AM said to season ticket holders?

Yeah, Oliver Drake, Bobby Bundy and Jesse Beal were overslot picks from 08 other than Matusz.

In 09, Givens I think was overslot, Coffey, Ohlman, Webb, Hoppy, Martin, Tim Berry, Ryan Berry, Jake Cowan were all overslotters.

This year we have a chunk of potential overslotters which is why IMO it is taking a little while to get the ball rolling.....

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Yeah, Oliver Drake, Bobby Bundy and Jesse Beal were overslot picks from 08 other than Matusz.

In 09, Givens I think was overslot, Coffey, Ohlman, Webb, Hoppy, Martin, Tim Berry, Ryan Berry, Jake Cowan were all overslotters.

This year we have a chunk of potential overslotters which is why IMO it is taking a little while to get the ball rolling.....

Thanks!

I guess it's hard to compare returns this soon and your opinion thus far would be similar to what you thought of those guys coming in since it's so soon.

But how much more did the Sox dole out for those over slots than the O's. Or is there anywhere I can find out that information?

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Thanks!

I guess it's hard to compare returns this soon and your opinion thus far would be similar to what you thought of those guys coming in since it's so soon.

But how much more did the Sox dole out for those over slots than the O's. Or is there anywhere I can find out that information?

Unless it's several million a year, I don't think it will ultimately tell you much. Player cost in the draft is affected by a multitude of variables -- enough that the price tag is not necessarily directly proportionate to the quality of player you are getting. I think the only way to really start pealing it apart would be to try and line-up player types as best you can (say, Younginer to Coffey; Volz to Berry; Jacobs to Ohlman; Kelley to Hobgood; Gibson to Givens) and compare. It would take more time, but matching-up risk profiles and comparing price tag would also be very useful.

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Interesting...comparatively to the Orioles draft over signings by the Orioles how much are we lagging in terms of dollars? Does anyone have the short term knowledge of how much over slotting we've done over the last 3 years? If the Red Sox have done 10 mill have we done anything close to that like AM said to season ticket holders?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2077108&postcount=12

The O's spent more (8.5 million) than the Sox (7.1 million) last year and more than doubled what they did after the top 10 (3.4mill to 1.4mill). I didn't do previous years.

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http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2077108&postcount=12

The O's spent more (8.5 million) than the Sox (7.1 million) last year and more than doubled what they did after the top 10 (3.4mill to 1.4mill). I didn't do previous years.

Based on incorrect numbers. BOS outspent us last year (one of just a couple teams who did) but I don't know what the exact numbers were. That website the numbers were pulled from doesn't exist anymore if that tells you anything.

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Based on incorrect numbers. BOS outspent us last year (one of just a couple teams who did) but I don't know what the exact numbers were. That website the numbers were pulled from doesn't exist anymore if that tells you anything.

I'd swear BOS was in the 10MM range last year...

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Based on incorrect numbers. BOS outspent us last year (one of just a couple teams who did) but I don't know what the exact numbers were. That website the numbers were pulled from doesn't exist anymore if that tells you anything.

It's Andy Seiler's page, who does a decent amount of stuff with the draft. The main page still works, must have gotten rid of the old stuff. I don't know what they spent if that number is wrong.

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It's Andy Seiler's page, who does a decent amount of stuff with the draft. The main page still works, must have gotten rid of the old stuff. I don't know what they spent if that number is wrong.

Yeah, i just remember reading a couple days ago that the Sox were one of the few teams that outspent us last year, but I don't know what the exact number is. This is only the top 10 rounds, but they were ahead of us at this point but a couple 100k. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763

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Yeah, i just remember reading a couple days ago that the Sox were one of the few teams that outspent us last year, but I don't know what the exact number is. This is only the top 10 rounds, but they were ahead of us at this point but a couple 100k. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763

Yeah, I had them up after 10, but us passing them after. With Coffey, Tim Berry, Webb (Ohlman was 11th??) and a few others it seemed possible. Either way I feel it's safe to say they beat us the two years prior ;)

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