#10 Prospect - RHP Matt Hobgood

[Stotle]

Hobgood's curve isn't right is because he threw it at a different arm slot from all three of his other pitches, and that had to be corrected. Add that to some big shifts in mechanics and you can pretty much write this season off as a learning experience. Next year will be the year we can actually start to get a read on Hobgood as a prospect.

And if all of that was noted as "needing to be overhauled" prior to selecting him, that's a ding on the BAL scouting department.

[Sports Guy]

Is him being out of shape really the reason he isn't missing bats?

You see a lot of fat pitchers and some of them believe they are better off being a little overweight because it helps them as the season goes on.

I am not saying it is ok for him to be out of shape but what I question is the blaming of that on him being a poor pitcher.

[mikezpen]

The fact that he's 10th w/the lousy figures he's put up doesn't say much for the Orioles. Until he starts doing about 300 percent better, he's nothing but a fat flop as far as I'm concerned.

And a wasted draft pick.

[Tony-OH]

I didn't get rankings but I also know scouts who were unimpressed to the tune of borderline NP unless things change quickly.

If a scout saw him on certain days and went solely off that I could understand, but no way could I understand a scout NPing a 19-year old who can flash good stuff. At worse teams saw Hobgood as a late first rounder so even if you believe Hobgood was overdrafted and has underperformed, no way can you NP after his first full season.

There are ten other guys in the O's system I'd rather have at this point, that's for sure.

That's why everyone is allowed their own lists.

[Tony-OH]

Is him being out of shape really the reason he isn't missing bats?

You see a lot of fat pitchers and some of them believe they are better off being a little overweight because it helps them as the season goes on.

I am not saying it is ok for him to be out of shape but what I question is the blaming of that on him being a poor pitcher.

I'm not saying Hogbood is the next Strasberg, but look at where Strasberg was at the same age:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=sh-strasburg032409

Strasburg wasn’t always in such fast company. He’d been at San Diego State all of a week in 2006 and he was doubled over in the corner of the dugout, heaving and vomiting after a routine conditioning workout.

Tony Gwynn, the Hall of Famer and the Aztecs’ coach, shook his head. The sorry spectacle confirmed everything he feared about the freshman pitcher. Filter had convinced Gwynn to give a scholarship to Strasburg, a local kid nobody else wanted.

One thought kept coming back to Gwynn: How can somebody who throws so hard be so soft?

Sure, Strasburg could throw 91 mph, but he was a good 30 pounds overweight. He couldn’t run a few laps without getting sick. He didn’t know how to bench press. The school’s conditioning coach nicknamed him “Slothburg” and told him he ought to quit on the spot.

Questions arose off the field as well. After five days living in a dormitory, Strasburg moved back with his mother, who had recently purchased a house near the campus to help care for Strasburg’s grandmother.

“I wasn’t the most mature guy out of high school, and moving to my mom’s gave me a place to sleep and relax,” Strasburg said. “The dorm was an overload, too much, too soon.”

Easily overwhelmed. That was becoming the label. During high school games he would melt down at the slightest provocation.

“I had a hard time handling anything that would go wrong, whether it was a call, a bad hop, an error, a guy hitting the ball hard,” he said. “I beat myself up. Anything negative would carry over. High school was the dark ages for me.”

Credit Filter with seeing a glimmer of light. Strasburg had a 4.37 grade-point average at nearby West Hills High, so he was a smart kid. He had a live arm despite his woeful conditioning. Filter convinced Gwynn that Strasburg had an upside, that he was worth a gamble.

“After two months on campus he went from 6-foot-3, 255, to 6-5, 225,” Gwynn said. “His was killing it in the weight room. His fastball went from 91 mph to 97. It happened that quick.”

[Stotle]

Is him being out of shape really the reason he isn't missing bats?

You see a lot of fat pitchers and some of them believe they are better off being a little overweight because it helps them as the season goes on.

I am not saying it is ok for him to be out of shape but what I question is the blaming of that on him being a poor pitcher.

Everyone is different, but yes being out of shape can be a huge reason for not executing pitches. You lose flexibility, you can tire more quickly, making it difficult to repeat your mechanics, and your body can have difficulty compensating for the excess weight pushing in different directions during your motion.

Here was the best arm in Jupiter last weekend and one of the better arms in the prep ranks this year. He is unlikely at this point to sniff the top 5 overall because of the college arms in the draft and some of the more projectable HS arms, but Fernandez is a 2-pitch power arm that is thick and wide. His mechanics are far from perfect, but he repeats them very well and, as a result, showed VERY good command. Were he to gain 20 - 30 lbs he would likely struggle with his release and he would likely struggle with his ability to spot his pitches:

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[Stotle]

If a scout saw him on certain days and went solely off that I could understand, but no way could I understand a scout NPing a 19-year old who can flash good stuff. At worse teams saw Hobgood as a late first rounder so even if you believe Hobgood was overdrafted and has underperformed, no way can you NP after his first full season.

That's why everyone is allowed their own lists.

Yeah, this was not someone sitting on Hobgood. He saw a start with a below average curve and 87-88 FB. Couple that with the body and I totally believe he would borderline NP the kid regardless of age. You can find that kid at D-III schools across the country.

Agree with your general statement that anyone watching Hobgood all season and seeing some promise flash through would not give up on him -- and as I said above I would not give up on him.

My coment about ranking wasn't a comment on YOUR ranking, of course. I haven't been that involved with following the BAL kids and I know you have been.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm not saying Hogbood is the next Strasberg, but look at where Strasberg was at the same age:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=sh-strasburg032409

Strasburg wasn’t always in such fast company. He’d been at San Diego State all of a week in 2006 and he was doubled over in the corner of the dugout, heaving and vomiting after a routine conditioning workout.

Tony Gwynn, the Hall of Famer and the Aztecs’ coach, shook his head. The sorry spectacle confirmed everything he feared about the freshman pitcher. Filter had convinced Gwynn to give a scholarship to Strasburg, a local kid nobody else wanted.

One thought kept coming back to Gwynn: How can somebody who throws so hard be so soft?

Sure, Strasburg could throw 91 mph, but he was a good 30 pounds overweight. He couldn’t run a few laps without getting sick. He didn’t know how to bench press. The school’s conditioning coach nicknamed him “Slothburg” and told him he ought to quit on the spot.

Questions arose off the field as well. After five days living in a dormitory, Strasburg moved back with his mother, who had recently purchased a house near the campus to help care for Strasburg’s grandmother.

“I wasn’t the most mature guy out of high school, and moving to my mom’s gave me a place to sleep and relax,” Strasburg said. “The dorm was an overload, too much, too soon.”

Easily overwhelmed. That was becoming the label. During high school games he would melt down at the slightest provocation.

“I had a hard time handling anything that would go wrong, whether it was a call, a bad hop, an error, a guy hitting the ball hard,” he said. “I beat myself up. Anything negative would carry over. High school was the dark ages for me.”

Credit Filter with seeing a glimmer of light. Strasburg had a 4.37 grade-point average at nearby West Hills High, so he was a smart kid. He had a live arm despite his woeful conditioning. Filter convinced Gwynn that Strasburg had an upside, that he was worth a gamble.

“After two months on campus he went from 6-foot-3, 255, to 6-5, 225,” Gwynn said. “His was killing it in the weight room. His fastball went from 91 mph to 97. It happened that quick.”

Definitely things can change very quickly, but with Strasburg, he not only wasn't in good shape, but he was also not very strong. Hobgood OTOH is said to be pretty darn strong physically, just not in the best of shape.

[hoosiers]

Tony, thanks for the reply above.

Can you comment on how out of shape Matt Hobgood was last year compared to his junior and senior years in HS (when JJ saw him)?

[QBsILLEST1]

Is him being out of shape really the reason he isn't missing bats?

You see a lot of fat pitchers and some of them believe they are better off being a little overweight because it helps them as the season goes on.

I am not saying it is ok for him to be out of shape but what I question is the blaming of that on him being a poor pitcher.

Yes, as Stotle said, it affects flexibility which is pretty key in pitching. If I recall correctly, Hobgood was more of a 91-92 MPH pitcher until his senior year where he took conditioning more seriously and got into better shape. His FB at that point jumped up a bit to the mid 90's range top end. You also have so much more mass and weight to get moving when pitching and more energy you have to use to get going. Its really a trickle down effect on everything. Not making excuses for him at all, but I could definitely see how all his woes could be related.........

[Tony-OH]

Tony, thanks for the reply above.

Can you comment on how out of shape Matt Hobgood was last year compared to his junior and senior years in HS (when JJ saw him)?

From what I understand is that Hobgood got himself into great shape for his senior year, but before that he was considered a bit overweight. When Jordan saw him late in his senior year he was probably at his peak condition and he was rising up a lot of draft charts.

Unfortunately, from the second he was drafted he apparently fell into some bad habits and by the time he showed up to Sarasota after waiting around for the ESPYs, he was out of shape again.

He supposedly worked with a nutritionist last offseason and told everyone what they wanted to hear, but when he showed up in spring he was bigger than ever.

He's really a prime example of actions speak louder than words. I think he's a good kid at heart and knows what he needs to do, but he apparently needs to mature and hopefully his sub par year will be the wake up call that he needed.

I think we'll know a lot more about him next spring. If he walks into camp overweight again after the season he just had then we'll know that his actions can't back up his words. He's a multi-millionaire with nothing to do this offseason other than get himself into shape. If he doesn't get it done, it will totally be on him.

The kid has a lot of talent, but the honeymoon period is over and it's now time for him to grow up and fulfill his promise. As Frobby pointed out, I could see him in the top 5 next year or back in the 20s.

It will certainly be interesting to hear the reports from Sarasota next spring.

[Stotle]

From what I understand is that Hobgood got himself into great shape for his senior year, but before that he was considered a bit overweight. When Jordan saw him late in his senior year he was probably at his peak condition and he was rising up a lot of draft charts.

Unfortunately, from the second he was drafted he apparently fell into some bad habits and by the time he showed up to Sarasota after waiting around for the ESPYs, he was out of shape again.

He supposedly worked with a nutritionist last offseason and told everyone what they wanted to hear, but when he showed up in spring he was bigger than ever.

He's really a prime example of actions speak louder than words. I think he's a good kid at heart and knows what he needs to do, but he apparently needs to mature and hopefully his sub par year will be the wake up call that he needed.

I think we'll know a lot more about him next spring. If he walks into camp overweight again after the season he just had then we'll know that his actions can't back up his words. He's a multi-millionaire with nothing to do this offseason other than get himself into shape. If he doesn't get it done, it will totally be on him.

The kid has a lot of talent, but the honeymoon period is over and it's now time for him to grow up and fulfill his promise. As Frobby pointed out, I could see him in the top 5 next year or back in the 20s.

It will certainly be interesting to hear the reports from Sarasota next spring.

I understand what you are saying, and I understand those that want to give Hobgood the benefit of the doubt. I'm just not a believer at this point. The physical demands of the game are different from a sport like football, but endurance and increased precision of action as you rise towards the Majors is SO important that I have a hard time investing in a teen that isn't even doing the little things at the lowest levels.

It isn't Hobgood's fault he was drafted in the top 5, but unfortunately he will be tied to those expectations. I'd MUCH rather simply see he overmatched than see issues relating to conditioning, work ethic, etc. Giving millions of dollars to a teenager is always a risk to a certain extent. Hopefully BAL starts getting some reasons to be excited when Hobgood gets back to Florida (though I don't understand why the team wouldn't be dictating exactly what Hobgood does -- maybe they are?).

[Ruzious]

It's a weaker top 10 than last year and Hobgood has too much talent to be ranked this low, IMO.

The only reasons he's in the top 10 are he was a high 1st rounder, and he's young.

[Stotle]

Well, and then there were the scouting reports too.

P.S. There were reports at the end of the year that Hobgood's mechanics were inconsistent and he had a lot of trouble repeating them. I'm not sure how much the O's tried to tweak his mechanics but it's also another explanation for the decreased velocity. Right now those are just excuses but it's certainly possible. Here's a snippet of a post by Stotle regarding Chris Tillman in another thread. If a pitcher who's been in pro ball for 3-4 years can lose velocity than I guess a pitcher in his first year can to.

More importantly, it can be expected for a teenager in his first full year of pro ball to struggle with dead arm, overall decreased velocity due to stamina (number of outings, time between outings and travel, etc.), and mechanical tweaks as RZ states.

To me, that makes Hobgood's physical issues more troubling (and is also a reason that I don't tend to get behind drafting someone with little physical projection as a prep arm in the top 5 unless his stuff is off the charts). Players need to overcome the difficulties associated with pro ball and show that their HS stuff can come through at the pro ranks AND that it can get even better. Hobgood has time to show this, but he certainly is off to a bad start.

[DrShorebird]

He almost gets an incomplete because we really need to see if he can get himself into better shape this off season and how that plays next year. .

So far, so good for getting in better shape during the off-season.