RHP -Dan Klein comes in at #6

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2845

A lot of upside here, but with a lack of pro experience and the unknown surrounding his conversion back to a starter keeps him at #6.

[QBsILLEST1]

Wow, one scout believe Roy Halladay is his ceiling?

I like the arm we got here, lets hope he holds up as a SP. Can't get on board with the Halladay ceiling, but I do believe he has a pretty good ceiling.....

Maybe his ceiling is a right handed Matusz? Possibly.....I am interested to see what the truth is with his changeup. BA said its the best in our system, Tony says is solid average, Stotle I recall not being quite as positive as BA was either in his Klein writeup.

[Enjoy Terror]

Well, no surprise here. Will he stay in the bullpen? I had heard the Orioles were threatening to start him.

[Stotle]

Wow, one scout believe Roy Halladay is his ceiling?

I like the arm we got here, lets hope he holds up as a SP. Can't get on board with the Halladay ceiling, but I do believe he has a pretty good ceiling.....

Maybe his ceiling is a right handed Matusz? Possibly.....I am interested to see what the truth is with his changeup. BA said its the best in our system, Tony says is solid average, Stotle I recall not being quite as positive as BA was either in his Klein writeup.

This is what I wrote:

Change-up - Klein's change-up is generally 85-86 mph, showing drop at times and even some late fade. It is most effective down in the zone, and he has found some success working it in under the hands on lefties. The pitch is still inconsistent, and when he leaves it up it is flat and hittable. Flashing average to a tick above right now, it could be a third above-average pitch with continued reps.

[Frobby]

When I read "Halladay" and "Mussina" in a player write-up, that gets me pretty excited. This guy strikes me as a steal as a 3rd rounder.

I guess he more or less gets the Ryan Berry treatment in 2011. Then in 2012, we decide if he remains a starter or moves to the pen. For a model of that, take a look at our 2003 3rd rounder, Chris Ray. He started 2004 as a starter in Delmarva, then moved to Frederick after 10 games and had 14 starts there. The next year he went into the 'pen at Bowie, and he was in Baltimore by mid-June, barely 24 months after he was drafted. I know SG has wanted to keep him in the pen so he will be in Baltimore faster, but I think for 2011 making him a starter makes a ton of sense.

[Sports Guy]

When I read "Halladay" and "Mussina" in a player write-up, that gets me pretty excited. This guy strikes me as a steal as a 3rd rounder.

I guess he more or less gets the Ryan Berry treatment in 2011. Then in 2012, we decide if he remains a starter or moves to the pen. For a model of that, take a look at our 2003 3rd rounder, Chris Ray. He started 2004 as a starter in Delmarva, then moved to Frederick after 10 games and had 14 starts there. The next year he went into the 'pen at Bowie, and he was in Baltimore by mid-June, barely 24 months after he was drafted. I know SG has wanted to keep him in the pen so he will be in Baltimore faster, but I think for 2011 making him a starter makes a ton of sense.

He threw 52 innings last year. How many innings do you think he goes this year, as a starter?

[Crazysilver03]

He threw 52 innings last year. How many innings do you think he goes this year, as a starter?

Probably somewhere between 80-100.

[Ruzious]

I finally got one right! SG brings up a very good point, but is there really data that supports a reliever has to be treated with kid gloves as far as innings pitched are concerned - when he converts to being a starter?

[QBsILLEST1]

He threw 52 innings last year. How many innings do you think he goes this year, as a starter?

I'd let him go 100IP....Do those 52IP you mention above include the IP in the O's system?

[Frobby]

He threw 52 innings last year. How many innings do you think he goes this year, as a starter?

Probably somewhere between 80-100.

I think that's about right. I'm not sure how some of those rules about increasing innings work when you are starting at the low end. Berry threw 81 at Rice and they increased him to 117. I'm pretty sure the O's would let Klein go 85-90, but beyond that I'm not sure how far they'd push.

[Frobby]

I'd let him go 100IP....Do those 52IP you mention above include the IP in the O's system?

No -- good point. So, I'd say he probably throws 95-100 innings next year.

[QBsILLEST1]

I finally got one right! SG brings up a very good point, but is there really data that supports a reliever has to be treated with kid gloves as far as innings pitched are concerned - when he converts to being a starter?

It has more to do with the combination of the injury risk and the fact that he was a reliever in college. The IP needs to be built back up. IMO it doesn't need to be as slowly as you'd build up a normal SP like Matusz or Tillman in the Verducci styled 30IP increments however until he gets a bit higher up in IP.....

[LookinUp]

Klein is one guy who could really lead a resurgence in our system in 2011. I love that he's in the system. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in Baltimore in 2012, or 2013 at the latest, assuming health.

[Tony-OH]

I could see him on a very similiar path as Ryan Berry, but with a twist. Perhaps he starts off as a 2-4 inning reliever for the first two months then transitions into a five inning starter over the last 2-3 months. Once he gets to 100 innings they back him back to a 1-2 inning reliever. It will be interesting to see how the Orioles handle the transition.

Brett Cecil is an interesting case study. He too converted from a closer in college to a starter in the pros. Cecil however signed in time to get 49 innings in 14 games (13 starts) in the New York Penn League after tossing 62 innings, mostly in releif for Maryland. Klein only tossed 58 innigs total last year between UCLA and Aberdeen and didn't pitch in 2009 after just 17 innings in 2008.

I guess one way to look at this is that Klein has a fresh arm, but it also has to be assumed that they need to handle him like a second year (first full year) high school arm rather than as a college guy.

I think 100-115 innings next year will be a good transition year. I could see 150 innings in 2012 between Bowie and Norfolk. This would have him ready to compete for a job in Baltimore by 2013.

[Sports Guy]

So, he gets around 100 innings in 2011.

Then, in 2012, if the Orioles stick to the 30ish IP rule, he will be around 130 innings.

Then, in 2013, he is looking at 160ish IP. Now, MAYBE you bring him up in 2013 to get a look but let's face it, he isn't really someone you can count on until 2014, at least as a starter.

And all of this is assuming he can convert back to a starter and that he is healthy the whole time.

Meanwhile, he may be able to be up by July in our pen.

I am not saying the talent isn't there for him to be a starter...It obviously is. I really liked this pick but I like it less if you are talking about him as a starter because of how long and difficult it will be for him to make it as a starter.