Red Sox/Padres Talking AGon Trade (UPDATE: Trade done)

[JTrea81]

Ah, yes. Not only does MacPhail not wine and dine, he's not aggressive enough at hyping his own prospects. We need to invest in a prospect PR department. Maybe they all need glam rock makeovers and stage names like Evermore MasterThunderKiller (that's Matt Angle, if it's not clear).

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

[SrMeowMeow]

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

Like, what are you even talking about? Show me any example of either team "hyping" their prospects. Or do you think they slip some cash to the guys who make prospect lists? I mean, seriously, you're off the map.

[MrOrange82]

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

Let's not get sidetracked...you've already acknowledged that the Padres are firsthand-familiar with the Red Sox's system, so hype should be irrelevant in this context. Also, I think my last question deserves consideration.

[Remember The Alomar]

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

Uh, don't you think that's more of a product of the fact that they're prospects of the two most hyped teams in baseball rather then being hyped by the team themselves?

[JTrea81]

Uh, don't you think that's more of a product of the fact that they're prospects of the two most hyped teams in baseball rather then being hyped by the team themselves?

That certainly doesn't hurt. But the Sox and Yankees don't go out of their way to try to downplay a prospect's status like MacPhail does with the Orioles. Now granted he may think it helps the player, but it doesn't help their trade value.

[glorydays]

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

It's amazing - over in that Tillman thread you were complaining about the O's overvaluing their prospects. Whatever floats your boat.

[JTrea81]

Let's not get sidetracked...you've already acknowledged that the Padres are firsthand-familiar with the Red Sox's system, so hype should be irrelevant in this context. Also, I think my last question deserves consideration.

Well for one Hoyer knows the Sox prospects, so the fact he knows the players gives him more comfort with their abilities - strengths and weaknesses, injury history etc, so he might be willling to take a lesser known and less valuable prospect or two if he really trusts in their abilities.

While with the Orioles, he's relying on scouts opinions etc and outside info, so he'd likely want to take the surest things from the Orioles system - meaning our top guys.

[waroriole]

That certainly doesn't hurt. But the Sox and Yankees don't go out of their way to try to downplay a prospect's status like MacPhail does with the Orioles. Now granted he may think it helps the player, but it doesn't help their trade value.

Excuse me? I'm sure you have some ridiculous example to support this, so let's hear it.

I don't know what is worse: the Tillman calendar, Buck being in charge, or AM downplays and doesn't hype our prospects enough. Maybe Chaos Lex could make a poll about that.

[Crazysilver03]

That certainly doesn't hurt. But the Sox and Yankees don't go out of their way to try to downplay a prospect's status like MacPhail does with the Orioles. Now granted he may think it helps the player, but it doesn't help their trade value.

Say what?!?!

[BrunoCherrytown]

The real issue here is how the Sox magically have enough prospects to make the trade. The NBC Sports issue has one of their top international prospects on the table...be nice to have one of those.

And they had plenty of other pieces to add in without raiding the proverbial cupboard.

And then they are going hard after Werth and Crawford too.

But no worries. We have castoffs like Lee, Bartlett, Hardy, LaRoche to go after.

That'll get em Andy. Thanks for doing such a bang up job on the farm system and international program so we can make trades like this. 5th place here we come.

Can't Selig take an earlier retirement so Andy can leave sooner.

[Capn Vivi]

It's been said a lot that some prospects are over-hyped and given higher status on top prospect lists for somewhat biased reasons. I've never really heard the Sox prospects discussed that way (maybe in terms of volume, but not individual players, certainly not like that Wieters kid). Most definitely the Braves and Dodgers are on that list, perhaps the Angels too.

Suggesting that MacPhail is not "hyping his own prospects" is almost like declaring he doesn't know how to do his job. You're painting the man as a kind of fool, abducted from a farm when he was 20 and given a suit and a pen. It's mind boggling that you actually seem to believe that MacPhail is consciously damaging this team in trade negotiations by "not hyping his own prospects."

I'd laugh if I could, but this day has robbed me of all humor.

It's also ridiculous that you seem to think this is something that the GM/FO has control over. Prospect hype is governed primarily by scouting organizations. External organizations like BA rate them for their readership and fan's entertainment. It's both informative and enlightening to read about the future of one's franchise.

Obviously, the internal scouting that goes on with the Red Sox both criticizes and praises their prospects. They need to know their strengths and weaknesses. I seriously doubt the scouts go around the league talking up the prospects to other scouts. The whole point of the job is understanding and, subjectively, valuating a player's contributions and weighing their potential against their likelihood of fulfilling it.

If the Padres FO has determined, through scouting of various organizations and pouring over multiple reports (both internal and external, I'm sure) that they like certain Red Sox players over certain other organization's players, that has nothing to do with over-hyping! Nothing!

I'm sure the Padres like Wieters, Matusz and Britton, did MacPhail need to "over-hype" them? Maybe he should stop telling his scouts to highlight all of the areas our young players require improvement!

[Capn Vivi]

The real issue here is how the Sox magically have enough prospects to make the trade. The NBC Sports issue has one of their top international prospects on the table...be nice to have one of those.

And they had plenty of other pieces to add in without raiding the proverbial cupboard.

And then they are going hard after Werth and Crawford too.

But no worries. We have castoffs like Lee, Bartlett, Hardy, LaRoche to go after.

That'll get em Andy. Thanks for doing such a bang up job on the farm system and international program so we can make trades like this. 5th place here we come.

Can't Selig take an earlier retirement so Andy can leave sooner.

You're right, if only we'd signed Adam Dunn, we'd be selling ALCS patches on Orioles Jerseys this summer. This team won 66 games last year. We could win 30 more and still miss the playoffs in 2011. I'm glad you had such high expectations entering this offseason, but competing next year was never going to happen. It certainly wasn't going to happen by signing every highly coveted FA on the market, either.

[JTrea81]

It's been said a lot that some prospects are over-hyped and given higher status on top prospect lists for somewhat biased reasons. I've never really heard the Sox prospects discussed that way (maybe in terms of volume, but not individual players, certainly not like that Wieters kid). Most definitely the Braves and Dodgers are on that list, perhaps the Angels too.

Suggesting that MacPhail is not "hyping his own prospects" is almost like declaring he doesn't know how to do his job. You're painting the man as a kind of fool, abducted from a farm when he was 20 and given a suit and a pen. It's mind boggling that you actually seem to believe that MacPhail is consciously damaging this team in trade negotiations by "not hyping his own prospects."

I'd laugh if I could, but this day has robbed me of all humor.

It's also ridiculous that you seem to think this is something that the GM/FO has control over. Prospect hype is governed primarily by scouting organizations. External organizations like BA rate them for their readership and fan's entertainment. It's both informative and enlightening to read about the future of one's franchise.

Obviously, the internal scouting that goes on with the Red Sox both criticizes and praises their prospects. They need to know their strengths and weaknesses. I seriously doubt the scouts go around the league talking up the prospects to other scouts. The whole point of the job is understanding and, subjectively, valuating a player's contributions and weighing their potential against their likelihood of fulfilling it.

If the Padres FO has determined, through scouting of various organizations and pouring over multiple reports (both internal and external, I'm sure) that they like certain Red Sox players over certain other organization's players, that has nothing to do with over-hyping! Nothing!

I'm sure the Padres like Wieters, Matusz and Britton, did MacPhail need to "over-hype" them? Maybe he should stop telling his scouts to highlight all of the areas our young players require improvement!

Maybe it's because I'm up here, but if you listen to the Red Sox hype machine, you'd think Casey Kelly for example, is the next coming of a HOF pitcher. However if you saw highlights and talk to fans who have seen him at Sea Dogs games, he hasn't exactly wowed anybody and the stats would definitely show that. Kelly is a product of the Red Sox hype machine and has had his value inflated because of it.

Whenever you hear the talking heads on various MLB shows talk about the Red Sox trading for Gonzalez, Kelly's name always comes up and he's talked about like he's some uber-prospect.

[sandman0838]

Maybe it's because I'm up here, but if you listen to the Red Sox hype machine, you'd think Casey Kelly for example, is the next coming of a HOF pitcher. However if you saw highlights and talk to fans who have seen him at Sea Dogs games, he hasn't exactly wowed anybody and the stats would definitely show that. Kelly is a product of the Red Sox hype machine and has had his value inflated because of it.

Whenever you hear the talking heads on various MLB shows talk about the Red Sox trading for Gonzalez, Kelly's name always comes up and he's talked about like he's some uber-prospect.

This. Until I see him on a MLB field I hold judgement on him. I've read more scouting reports on this kid than I care to and I would take any of the Royals prospects over him. That's not even a close call.

[Capn Vivi]

Maybe it's because I'm up here, but if you listen to the Red Sox hype machine, you'd think Casey Kelly for example, is the next coming of a HOF pitcher. However if you saw highlights and talk to fans who have seen him at Sea Dogs games, he hasn't exactly wowed anybody and the stats would definitely show that. Kelly is a product of the Red Sox hype machine and has had his value inflated because of it.

Whenever you hear the talking heads on various MLB shows talk about the Red Sox trading for Gonzalez, Kelly's name always comes up and he's talked about like he's some uber-prospect.

You aren't talking about sports talk radio or something are you? The only opinions that matter within an organization attempting to acquire players is that of the scouts. Obviously the scouts don't make the decisions, but the FO doesn't just check the pulse of the community to see who's who. The subjective nature of the thing is what drives the importance of scouting. What do YOUR scouts say versus what THEIR scouts say. That's why reclaimation projects exist at all! Otherwise the old edict: "If they cut him, he must be worthless, why on earth should we sign him?" would be gospel!

As for Kelly, here's my scouting report through the numbers:

Between A- and A+ in 2009 (at the age of 19), Kelly had a 2.08 ERA in 95.0 innings allowing 6.2 H/9 with 74 Ks and 16 BBs (good enough for a 4.63 ratio).

In BA before the 2010 season, Kelly was ranked the #24 prospect in baseball.

In AA last year (at the age of 20), Kelly put up a 5.31 ERA in 95.0 innings allowing 11.2 H/9 with 81 SO and 35 BBs (2.31 ratio).

Tillman was higher-ranked and pitched better at AA and above at just about the same exact age. He's now in the majors with experience and has shown flashes of "belonging." I would argue Tillman is more valuable than Kelly and I certainly wouldn't trade Tillman for him.