Sydnor

Defense/run prevention and base running aren’t valued as highly as offense. That would seem to be why a good percentage of this Board would like to get rid of Mateo. I see people want to promote Westburg who has a 26.3% strike out rate, 4.2% walk rate, 58 wRC+, and .600 OPS in AAA (with a .274 BABIP) since June 26. That doesn’t seem like an upgrade to me. I like Westburg’s defense at second more than at short, and still think Gunnar profiles better at third, but can handle short now if necessary. Not all of these guys are going to work out and I’m not putting my chips on Westburg. I’m inclined to let Mateo play out the year because he could easily be the Orioles starting SS until Holliday is ready.

I didn’t see this in this thread, so here is what Ruiz has for rounds 7-10 (pretty surprised by the Johnson number).

Maybe not, but as @Tony-OH explained earlier in this thread he had been unlucky earlier this year. Urias is in the 73 percentile for average exit velocity, 90th percentile for hard hit percentage, 79th percentile for expected batting average, 75th percentile for expected slugging percentage, and the 65th percentile for barrel percentage. These numbers have increased marginally recently, but he has been hitting the ball with authority since he was given a real opportunity last year. In fact, his barrel percentage for 2021 and 2022 is the same at 9.7 percent. He has also been worth 3 outs above average at third. I don’t think he will continue at this level, but some of this is a progression to the mean given how unlucky he was earlier this year. I like prospects as much as the next guy, but Urias is establishing himself as an above average starter. Good teams need to hit on waiver claims and minor league signings too (i.e., Dodgers and Justin Turner and Max Muncy) because no team wins with a completely homegrown 26 man roster. We should be happy that Elias appears to have nailed a few of his waiver claims starting with Urias who could absolutely be a starter on a playoff team.

I’ve been to a few games at Harbor Park, so not enough to draw any firm conclusions and I’m also not a scout, but Vavra’s range seems fairly limited and he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm like Schoop. I don’t think he could’ve made the play that Odor made yesterday when he charged the ball, barehanded it, and threw it to first. I think he would be a slight drop off from Odor, but it wouldn’t be as noticeable as the drop off from Mateo to Westburg at short. I actually think Westburg would be the best defender that they could play at second. He looked good when I saw him at second. I like that they have been playing him at second in addition to short and third this year.

I have nothing to back this up, but Mateo was hitting fairly well before he collided with Torkelson in May on a foul ball. He seemed pretty shaken up after that play. I felt and still feel like he was playing through something that didn’t impact his defense, but hurt him at the plate. I also think he has made a few changes to his approach. It looks like he’s a little more spread out at the plate now and is letting the ball travel instead of trying to pull everything. He’s a fun player, so I hope he can continue to hit better as he’s done in July.

Thanks for posting. I think it’s a pretty good deal given that it’s roughly $650k under slot. I thought it might be in the $8.4-8.5 range, so that should help. If they utilized the extra 5% (seems unlikely), they would have just under $1.5 to go after some of the later over slot selections.

Favorite: Holliday, Showalter Least favorite: Beavers (because I liked a lot of the injured college starters, not because I don’t like him) Most intrigued: Carter Young. If they can sign him, I’ll be really interested to see if the player development operation can improve his hit tool because his other tools are intriguing.

Young transferred to LSU last month. I don’t know how that will impact his signability.

Despite his poor numbers last year, I like the upside swing in the 17th. Who knows if they’ll be able to get a deal done. FanGraphs still had Young 98th and McDaniel had him 179.

Showalter is a bit of a data-darling featuring a low-release fastball with a good bit of hop, inducing a whole lot of whiffs. He works in a low-80s breaking ball with two-plane tilt and tight, consistent spin. Showalter has a good pitchers body and significant arm speed with athleticism. Plenty of projection here. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-draft-top-400-prospects-h8bxx

Bencosme made BA’s Hotsheet. I don’t have a BA subscription, so this tweet is the best I can do.

I think we are essentially on the same page. Holliday is definitely a big swing, and I’m also happy they didn’t play it safe. You make a great point about quality depth. In Houston, they took shots on high school players like Whitley, Tucker, McCullers, Cameron, our old friend Rio Ruiz, and now emerging Patrick Sandoval. It will be interesting to see where things go as the system continues to build up. Perhaps they will be more willing to draft some of those high school players when they’re comfortable with the system depth. I am also certain they will always analyze things they could have done better. If the results from the last two drafts where they are clearly drafting a type aren’t where they want them, I have full confidence they’ll alter their model. It’s nice to have that confidence in the decision makers.

To be 100% clear, I think that the organization is in significantly better shape under Elias than the previous regime and I’m not saying that I would take Rajsich over Elias’ crew. I was only saying that I would like a few more high school swings notwithstanding that college players can also be upside swings. When you say you can’t find fault in Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, and Mayo, I can’t either, and 3/5 were high school players. The staff is good at identifying high school players! I also wonder if their hands are a bit tied because ownership won’t approve spending the 5% overage. With respect to Rajsich he wasn’t perfect, and you identified some of his hits. Others included Mountcastle and Hader, and college players like Mancini, Hays, and Mullins. I thought he did pretty well despite forfeited picks and the interference you identified. But again, I’m happy with Elias and his team, and wasn’t trying to say I was wish he was still running the draft. I’m sure what @owknowssaid about college players being more likely to have a 3 year career is true. What does a three year career mean? Does it mean they produced replacement level or better production? I’m not saying it’s wrong to look at the draft that way, just that you can look at it differently. One can make a number of arguments based on career WAR, prospect lists, etc. For example, with respect to Fangraphs current Top 100, 42 were drafted out of high school players, 28 were international signings, and 30 were drafted out of college or JUCO. I also don’t disagree that he can’t afford to miss on high expenditures. I don’t know what the numbers are for the players selected, but I would just like to see one more high school player rather than a physically maxed out college performer in the 7th because a 3 year below replacement level career from a 7th rounder is less valuable to me than taking one shot on finding a Hader. I have no problem with a whiff on Willems (though I think it’s way too early to write him off) because they took a shot. In conclusion, I have no problem with the draft. They know more than me. I hope the draft has good results. I think they’re good at drafting high school players and I’d rather take a swing on a high school player than Ryan Higgins or Johnny Rizer.

Forgot your post. I was just guessing because he does have leverage as a sophomore. McClean could be over slot too.

I think Beavers and McClean are upside plays. My wording could have been better. I’d just like to see more high school picks because they are generally more projectable. For example, I enjoy a Ryan McKenna in the fourth round because it gives me more to dream on. Most of the kids after the first aren’t going to make it, so I just prefer the possibility that everything clicks for an athletic high school player to picking a college performer. If you disagree, that’s cool. We don’t need to agree.

I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot. I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).

I thought Bright was a Junior and unlikely to be a $10k signing.

Literally any pitcher. I suspect they’ll draft a college bat (probably an outfielder) with good exit velocities, but questions about the hit tool. It seems like this has been going on for 2 years. In his MASN interview, Ciolek basically said they think they have the secret sauce to take guys late and turn them into pitchers that outperform their draft slots. Those pitchers generally end up looking like Dylan Heid. Some analysts, including Tony, think Baumler is one of the O’s three-five best pitching prospects. He’s thrown 11.2 innings since he was drafted.

Literally any pitcher.

I think this is fair. I’ve said before that I think Mike would’ve picked Christian Colon over Manny for this reason. I am probably the most negative on Lee, but if he’s the pick, I hope he’s a decent player. I just hate that you lose 100+ to draft a guy that doesn’t appear to have the most superstar upside in the draft because you’re too cautious to draft a high school player in the first round. You didn’t say this at all, but I’ll say it here: I hate the fast mover/fits the window argument too. First, if you draft a high school player that high, there should be no material difference in how quickly a college player and that high school player move through the system. Second, Mike has described his elite talent pipeline as an effort to avoid peaks and valleys, so fast moving shouldn’t be a consideration. At this point, we’ll see what happens, but I tend to trust Vegas.