Baseball America: Midseason Top 50

[Hoo Bird]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2611568.html

This is the highest I have seen Danny Hultzen on any draft board. I would love for the birds to snag him at 1:4. I'm a little biased, but what's not to like about a lefty with a strong track record, high strikeout rate, and close to major league ready.

[rhall]

I like Hultzen, but I do wonder if he'll be overvalued slightly - just slightly. He went from a mid-1st guy to a top-10 guy when he came out this year with a little extra velocity. His performance has certainly garnered some attention as well, but it's the small boost in stuff that has pushed him from a #3 upside guy to a #2 frontline pitcher.

My question is, once he gets into the pro game and he has to pitch every 5 days as opposed to once a week, are we going to see his velocity take a small step back - closer to the guy we saw as a freshman & sophomore? It happens all the time with high school guys, but I don't remember it really happening with the college arms as much, so maybe it's nothing. But it was a thought I had.

[Fan4Life]

I like Hultzen, but I do wonder if he'll be overvalued slightly - just slightly. He went from a mid-1st guy to a top-10 guy when he came out this year with a little extra velocity. His performance has certainly garnered some attention as well, but it's the small boost in stuff that has pushed him from a #3 upside guy to a #2 frontline pitcher.

My question is, once he gets into the pro game and he has to pitch every 5 days as opposed to once a week, are we going to see his velocity take a small step back - closer to the guy we saw as a freshman & sophomore? It happens all the time with high school guys, but I don't remember it really happening with the college arms as much, so maybe it's nothing. But it was a thought I had.

He's from MD. Regional bias working in our favor?

[TJ Wrangler]

I'm starting to become a pretty big Hultzen fan. Rather him than Bundy.

[Hutman]

I like the 3 college pitchers, Hultzen, Gray and Bradley, but Dylan Bundy is a pretty intriguing talent as well. Keith Law says he feels he has better stuff than last year's # 2 Jameson Tallion.

[crowmst3k!]

Hultzen's stuff was good last year, before the uptick in velocity. He's a finese guy that can work in the low 90's. Love his tiny walk rate, and decent K-rate. Should be Hamels-esque. His mechanics are fluid, repeatable, and effortless. I think Hultzen could be an immediate impact guy.

[Hoo Bird]

My question is, once he gets into the pro game and he has to pitch every 5 days as opposed to once a week, are we going to see his velocity take a small step back - closer to the guy we saw as a freshman & sophomore?

I understand this concern, but wouldn't this be a concern for all amateur pitchers? Why would Gray or Bradley be immune to this possibility>

I don't know much about Gray, but I do feel Hultzen is superior to Bradley. They have competed against similar talent (ACC) and the results aren't even close. Bradley hasn't had an ERA under 4 until this season, and even this year Hultzen appears vastly superior.

Hultzen

ERA 1.17

IP 61.1

K/9 14.5

BB/9 1.5

WHIP .78

Bradley

ERA 2.98

IP 48.1

K/9 11.9

BB/9 3.2

WHIP 1.14

[rhall]

I understand this concern, but wouldn't this be a concern for all amateur pitchers? Why would Gray or Bradley be immune to this possibility>

I don't know much about Gray, but I do feel Hultzen is superior to Bradley. They have competed against similar talent (ACC) and the results aren't even close. Bradley hasn't had an ERA under 4 until this season, and even this year Hultzen appears vastly superior.

Well, to an extent, there is that concern with all amateur pitching. That's why projectability is important - although more so with high schoolers.

Also, I'm not arguing against Hultzen as a great pitching prospect. It sounds like he's refined his off speed stuff, too, so it isn't just the fastball velocity. And even before his velo went up a tick this year, he was still considered a mid-round 1st rounder, so it's not that he isn't a top talent. I was just saying that I wonder if his stuff in pro ball will look more like his earlier UVA career.

And as for comparing those college arms. Hultzen & Bradley do seem very similar, but just looking at scouting reports and game results, even though I see them as being very close, I don't know if I could argue Bradley over Hultzen. As for Gray, he has 2 pitches (FB, CB) that are arguably better than anything Hultzen & Bradley throw. But pretty much everything else goes in favor of Hultzen & Bradley, esp. command and feel for pitching. IMO, Gray definitely slots in somewhere behind those lefties.

EDIT: looking at that again, I have to take back my statement about Hultzen being firmly ahead of Bradley. Since it sounds like Bradley's stuff is a little better, I could definitely see them being argued in either order.

[freelancer]

I like the 3 college pitchers, Hultzen, Gray and Bradley, but Dylan Bundy is a pretty intriguing talent as well. Keith Law says he feels he has better stuff than last year's # 2 Jameson Tallion.

I'm no scout, but I watched Bundy pitch in Oklahoma two weeks ago. He's got a great arm but after the 3rd inning, these high school batters were sitting on his fastball and hit some balls pretty hard off of him. Bundy's Owasso team ended up winning 6-3 against an above average Union high school team. Bundy would have given up more runs if not for a Sportscenter-worthy play by their centerfielder. I didn't have a gun on Bundy but my two eyes told me that he's going to have a lot to learn once he's in the minors. Kid's got swagger though, I'll give him that. You can tell he thinks he's God's gift to the pitching rubber by the way he walks on and off the field.

I hope the O's don't pick him.

[allstar1579]

I understand this concern, but wouldn't this be a concern for all amateur pitchers? Why would Gray or Bradley be immune to this possibility>

I don't know much about Gray, but I do feel Hultzen is superior to Bradley. They have competed against similar talent (ACC) and the results aren't even close. Bradley hasn't had an ERA under 4 until this season, and even this year Hultzen appears vastly superior.

Hultzen

ERA 1.17

IP 61.1

K/9 14.5

BB/9 1.5

WHIP .78

Bradley

ERA 2.98

IP 48.1

K/9 11.9

BB/9 3.2

WHIP 1.14

The difference is Bradley has been working almost exclusively by varying his FB. Sink, or cut, changing speeds, blowing it past guys. Hultzen, kind of like Matusz, almost pitches backwards because his secondaries are pretty good. In the college ranks, a lower velocity guy with good secondaries can be almost unhittable because most college players can't hit good secondaries with control. Different approaches, but Hultzen is going to have an adjustment period once he hits AA and the hitters can hit offspeed pitches. Bradley also will have an adjustment, but in reverse, he'll have to deal with people having a better eye, and laying off his sinker. He'll have to do more than just change speeds with his change/FB combo. Going to have to work on that slider some more to really make the next step.

[rhall]

The difference is Bradley has been working almost exclusively by varying his FB. Sink, or cut, changing speeds, blowing it past guys. Hultzen, kind of like Matusz, almost pitches backwards because his secondaries are pretty good. In the college ranks, a lower velocity guy with good secondaries can be almost unhittable because most college players can't hit good secondaries with control. Different approaches, but Hultzen is going to have an adjustment period once he hits AA and the hitters can hit offspeed pitches. Bradley also will have an adjustment, but in reverse, he'll have to deal with people having a better eye, and laying off his sinker. He'll have to do more than just change speeds with his change/FB combo. Going to have to work on that slider some more to really make the next step.

That's a well put and nice evaluation.

So who would you rather bet on? The guy who needs to trust his fastball more (which is far from a bad pitch), or the guy who needs to improve his breaking ball?

All things being equal, I'd prefer the guy who already has the pitches and just needs to adjust his sequencing.

[allstar1579]

That's a well put and nice evaluation.

So who would you rather bet on? The guy who needs to trust his fastball more (which is far from a bad pitch), or the guy who needs to improve his breaking ball?

All things being equal, I'd prefer the guy who already has the pitches and just needs to adjust his sequencing.

It's REALLY close honestly. I could talk to 5 evaluators right now and get 5 different answers on the best arm after Cole. I personally like Hultzen a little better, but I think it's because he's local and I've been following him for a few years, call it having a soft spot for him, but I could take Bradley, Bundy, or Jungmann right now and have a good argument for each.

Really you'd just have to weigh what you value more in a pitcher, I think the O's ultimately go with Bradley because they tend to skew towards groundball pitchers, and he's more of a power lefty than a finesse lefty, which is a nice balance to Matusz. Really you can draw a name out of a hat with the top 7 or so and you can't go wrong. It's very deep at the top, especially pitching. I worry a little bit that the bats in the draft will be overvalued a little because they are the best of what is out there, even though they aren't as good as the pitching.

[RVAbird]

That's a well put and nice evaluation.

So who would you rather bet on? The guy who needs to trust his fastball more (which is far from a bad pitch), or the guy who needs to improve his breaking ball?

All things being equal, I'd prefer the guy who already has the pitches and just needs to adjust his sequencing.

Depends on the details of the bet.

If you're betting on who is more likely to become a good major leaguer, I'd tell you to bet Hultzen. He's more polished, has a deeper arsenal and is close to big-league ready.

If we are talking ceiling, I'd give the slight edge to Bradley. Bradley gets the nod in terms of frame and delivery, and comes with a bit of projection left as well.

Hultzen is the better pitcher right now, but he's essentially maxed out on velo and doesn't have much room for growth. Because of Bradley's size and the ease of his delivery, I could see him adding 1-2 MPH to his sinking fastball and easily going deep into games and providing 200+ IP per year (performance permitting). If Hultzen's jump in velo (from 88-91 across freshman/sophomore seasons to 92-95 in junior season) is real, he doesn't need any more projection, but I could see him (due to a slighter frame and more effort on the delivery) losing a couple ticks when stretched out on 4 days rest across a long pro season. I don't have the same concerns with Bradley.

I like both pitchers a lot. Hultzen is a guy who could take a Matusz-track to the big leagues and settle in rather quickly as a mid-rotation starter, possibly making the jump to an ace down the road. Bradley might take an extra season to get through the minors, but if he develops the way you want him to, you'll have a front-end lefty who gets ground balls, misses bats, goes deep into games and throws ton of innings.

I like the Bradley I see in the future better than the Hultzen I see now, but there's a bit more risk.

[Old Sneakers]

+ rep to RVA Bird for some very valuable insight!

I am no scout. However for the Orioles I believe it's a choice between Bradley or Dylan Bundy. The team is almost certainly going to take a pitching prospect unless ownership "Helps" make the choice. That said it needs to go for highest ceiling and that is one of these two! My preference is Bradley. I am already crossing my fingers hoping that Arizona takes Hultzen and it's no contest. I won't go so far as to put Hultzen down but from what I've read his velocity has only bumped up into the 90s this season. The young man has a lot riding on what radar guns read and really feel that the fastball is the most important pitch in the sport. Same argument on Bradly? He's velocity leaves more room for dip if he's playing to the gun. Furthermore he can have a little more time to figure out off speed pitches.

As for Dylan Bundy the fact that his brother is already in the Orioles system has nothing to do with it. He will take longer to develop than a college pitcher but apart from wishing he was an inch or two taller he's about as good a prep pitcher you will see.

[Stotle]

My preference right now, assuming Cole/Rendon gone, is Starling/Gray.