Goldstein's article on O's ESPN's Kiss 'em Goodbye

[JTrea81]

PA seems happy with Buck why wouldn't they sign an extension? Buck isn't the youngest manager in the game but I have not heard of any health problems, I am not sure why you think the next two seasons are do or die for him.

Because he's sick of the Orioles losing?

[El Gordo]

PA seems happy with Buck why wouldn't they sign an extension? Buck isn't the youngest manager in the game but I have not heard of any health problems, I am not sure why you think the next two seasons are do or die for him.

To begin with PA's isn't going to be around forever. I doubt he is going to sit still for another rebuild. And if he as willing why wouldn't AM stay here. I am sure AM would be in favor of continuing stockpiling SP and trading Jones etc. for more. The fact that we didn't indicates a sea chnge IMO, and I don't think AM is on board with that. A sea change wouldn't be more of the same with Buck in charge. What do you think Buck has been saying to Petee when they meet? Lets trade Jones, Guthrie, Hardy, and Wieters, for 6-8 young top SP prospects and a blocked 1B? Buck will need and want to show some results by the time his contarct is up for extension. Those reults won't be there if he rebuilds. And he isn't likely to get another managing gig after this one. It took him a while to get this one because his reputation preceded him. I think he either gets it done here and now, or it's back to ESPN.

[allstar1579]

Drop him back in the AL East and he isn't putting up the same numbers. Drop him in Camden Yards and he probably isn't putting up the same numbers. Even his "typical" numbers are fringe mid-rotation and often enough back-end caliber.

Bottom line, he's going to give you maybe #3/4 production, with a fair chance of #4/5 production for, what, $10-12MM a year? Pass.

It's the SP equivalent of signing Gregg for $6m a year.

[El Gordo]

It's the SP equivalent of signing Gregg for $6m a year.

Comparing a player who is worth a total 0.3 WAR over the last 3 years and paid 6M per, to one who was worth 10.4 WAR over the past 3 years and is paid 2M more per, is stupid.

[allstar1579]

Comparing a player who is worth a total 0.3 WAR over the last 3 years and paid 6M per, to one who was worth 10.4 WAR over the past 3 years and is paid 2M more per, is stupid.

Comparing a player who has never pitched in Camden Yards to a guy earning a ton of his WAR in the NL is stupid.

Also, you are abusing the use of WAR. Did you really just compare the WAR of a RP to a SP?

[El Gordo]

Comparing a player who has never pitched in Camden Yards to a guy earning a ton of his WAR in the NL is stupid.

Also, you are abusing the use of WAR. Did you really just compare the WAR of a RP to a SP?

He didn't earn a ton of his WAR in the NL, his best numbers the last four years were in TB 100 ERA + in '08, 127 in DET '09, 134 in CHW in '10, and 108 in CHW and STL in '11. His poor numbers were in AR. That's in the NL. The last 3 years his WAR has been 3.5, 3.8 and 3.4 currently, according to FanGraphs. You are the one comparing the value of a RP to SP. Of course Gregg's 6M per is ridiculous, but Jackson's 8M for 3.4 is not.

[Stotle]

He didn't earn a ton of his WAR in the NL, his best numbers the last four years were in TB 100 ERA + in '08, 127 in DET '09, 134 in CHW in '10, and 108 in CHW and STL in '11. His poor numbers were in AR. That's in the NL. The last 3 years his WAR has been 3.5, 3.8 and 3.4 currently, according to FanGraphs. You are the one comparing the value of a RP to SP. Of course Gregg's 6M per is ridiculous, but Jackson's 8M for 3.4 is not.

You can cling to WAR in this instance, but no baseball person is using that to make an actual decision. In fact, the argument you are making is exactly what the author was reference to in the article discussed in that "Is WAR the new RBI" thread.

Nothing about Jackson says he's more than a #3 AT BEST, and his inconsistencies and body of work indicate he's much closer to a #3/4.

Step away from the WAR and you have a pitcher that allows around 1.5 runners per inning, one homerun a game, and has struck out around 7 per nine over the last three years.

Is he a useful pitcher to a good team? Sure. Is any contender going to depend on him as a #3? Maybe, but I think it's unlikely. Does it make sense for Baltimore to tie up a relatively large amount of money ($10-12MM per for three or four years) to grab a potential #3 who may or may not be effective in the AL East? I can't see how it's helpful in figuring out how to put together a winner on Baltimore's budget, given their current payroll status.

If Baltimore is looking to tread water, maybe try and crawl back towards .500, sure. Good move. Maybe he steps in and does really well in Baltimore and you can move him for something cheaper and longer term. That would be great. But you are risking a fairly expensive contract over three years where you have a number of fairly expensive contracts already and your return has a fair chance of not being a difference maker. That's just not a move I think a savvy organization makes.

Not saying there is zero chance Jackson makes a contract in Baltimore look good. It just isn't the type of risk I'd want to take.

[Can_of_corn]

Because he's sick of the Orioles losing?

So you think Buck is gunning for an 82-80 record so he can say he brought a winner to Baltimore then he can hightail it out of town before it all collapses?

Barring a miraculous turnaround by the entire starting pitching staff you can not add enough talent to this team to make it a contender. You can overspend for some guys and with some luck break 500 but no way can you get to the playoffs with the current roster.

Buck has advocated blowing it up before. Until I see proof and not just idle speculation from you and Gordo I will not discount the possibility.

[El Gordo]

You can cling to WAR in this instance, but no baseball person is using that to make an actual decision. In fact, the argument you are making is exactly what the author was reference to in the article discussed in that "Is WAR the new RBI" thread.

Nothing about Jackson says he's more than a #3 AT BEST, and his inconsistencies and body of work indicate he's much closer to a #3/4.

Step away from the WAR and you have a pitcher that allows around 1.5 runners per inning, one homerun a game, and has struck out around 7 per nine over the last three years.

Is he a useful pitcher to a good team? Sure. Is any contender going to depend on him as a #3? Maybe, but I think it's unlikely. Does it make sense for Baltimore to tie up a relatively large amount of money ($10-12MM per for three or four years) to grab a potential #3 who may or may not be effective in the AL East? I can't see how it's helpful in figuring out how to put together a winner on Baltimore's budget, given their current payroll status.

If Baltimore is looking to tread water, maybe try and crawl back towards .500, sure. Good move. Maybe he steps in and does really well in Baltimore and you can move him for something cheaper and longer term. That would be great. But you are risking a fairly expensive contract over three years where you have a number of fairly expensive contracts already and your return has a fair chance of not being a difference maker. That's just not a move I think a savvy organization makes.

Not saying there is zero chance Jackson makes a contract in Baltimore look good. It just isn't the type of risk I'd want to take.

In the best of all possible worlds I woulodn't be excited about Jackson either. But in the real world of PA 's O's I don't see many better options for improving the SP next year. We are not going to be trading for SP IMO, so we can just wait and pray the cavalry shows up, or do something in the meantime. Why don't you tell me which FA SP you would prefer to Jackson. He strikes me to be about on par with Guthrie, about a #3 on a good team and a#2 on ours.

[JTrea81]

Barring a miraculous turnaround by the entire starting pitching staff you can not add enough talent to this team to make it a contender. You can overspend for some guys and with some luck break 500 but no way can you get to the playoffs with the current roster.

It wouldn't have to be a miraculous turnaround. This pitching staff is capable of being average, which is all they really need to be.

[Can_of_corn]

It wouldn't have to be a miraculous turnaround. This pitching staff is capable of being average, which is all they really need to be.

Average might cut it in the NL West, you are not getting by two or the Yankees, Rays and Sox with an average pitching staff. At least not with the pieces the O's currently have in place, and that is with King Albert at first and the Prince DH'ing.

[Stotle]

In the best of all possible worlds I woulodn't be exhited about Jackson either. But in the real world of PA 's O's I don't see many better options for improving the SP next year. We are not going to be trading for SP IMO, so we can just wait and pray the cavalry shows up, or do something in the meantime. Why don't you tell me which FA SP you would prefer to Jackson. He strikes me to be about on par with Guthrie, about a #3 on a good team and a#2 on ours.

I'd get a one year plug on the cheap if I absolutely had to add starting pitching through free agency.

If Baltimore thinks they are going to solve SP through FA, the organization isn't going anywhere. They don't have the money to spend it in this area, when this is the one area where there are actually cheap, cost controlled options. Heck, spend the money on trying to figure out why your young pitchers continue to have trouble adjusting. That's a better investment.

[El Gordo]

]I'd get a one year plug on the cheap [/b]if I absolutely had to add starting pitching through free agency.

If Baltimore thinks they are going to solve SP through FA' date=' the organization isn't going anywhere. They don't have the money to spend it in this area, when this is the one area where there are actually cheap, cost controlled options. Heck, spend the money on trying to figure out why your young pitchers continue to have trouble adjusting. That's a better investment.[/quote']OK I'll put you down as in favor of Livan or Penny. You keep speaking about an Orioles team that doesn't exhist and won't, until we have a new owner. So I guess you think that as long as PA is owner it makes little difference what they do. That may well be true, but then there's no reason to post anything, is there?

[Stotle]

OK I'll put you down as in favor of Livan or Penny. You keep speaking about an Orioles team that doesn't exhist and won't, until we have a new owner. So I guess you think that as long as PA is owner it makes little difference what they do. That may well be true, but then there's no reason to post anything, is there?

I don't think I've ever mentioned Peter Angelos in my posts. You're thinking of someone else.

And, yeah, I'd rather give Penny 3 MM for one year as a back-up then plop down a large contract on Jackson that I'll be stuck with while I pay Roberts his additional $20 MM and Nick his addtional $35MM or so, not to mention whatever amount I'm paying Jones through his extension (since I'm not allowed to talk about trading him, per your rules of discussion).

[El Gordo]

I don't think I've ever mentioned Peter Angelos in my posts. You're thinking of someone else.

And, yeah, I'd rather give Penny 3 MM for one year as a back-up then plop down a large contract on Jackson that I'll be stuck with while I pay Roberts his additional $20 MM and Nick his addtional $35MM or so, not to mention whatever amount I'm paying Jones through his extension (since I'm not allowed to talk about trading him, per your rules of discussion).

Do you believe the Orioles will be willing to make the trades this fall, necessary to upgrade our SP? Perhaps I should ask if you think SP is a top priority.