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If Fielder goes to M's, Reynolds/Smoak trade possible?

japes121

By japes121
in Orioles Talk

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Can you be more specific? I'm not asking ironically. It's not just that he's shown growing pains at the ML level...he's struggled mightily, and he just turned 25.

His intro to the big leagues did not go as planned, but over his age 23 and 24 seasons he posted average power in a pitcher's park and a well above-average walk rate. His K-rate is not ideal but far from unmanageable. From what I know about his swing and approach, I don't believe a .265 BABIP is his true talent level. He may well bust, but he's still a very intriguing young bat and, considering Baltimore's situation, I wouldn't hesitate to send away an expensive, flawed vet on the verge of free agency to acquire him.

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flashjordnk All-Star

flashjordnk

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He has a while to get to that point.

I'm not enamored by Smoak. But I'm not sure he's as close to that point as you think. One more season like last season and I think Smoak really starts to lose his shine. Even in 2010, when his LD% was much better, he couldn't crack a 700 OPS. I do like the walks.

I kind of thought he'd take an Adrian Gonzalez type path. At 23 he really just started to put it all together in AAA. And was lack luster at the MLB level with a 678 OPS. But at 24, even playing in San Diego where you could make a similar argument about the type of stadium he was playing in like Safeco, Gonzalez got his OPS up to 862. If Smoak can't do so something like that this year, I'm not sure he's got that much glimmer on him.

How many 1bs bloomed later than that in their careers? And those with over 1000 MLB At Bats at that point too? Especially of those that were at one point rated as highly as Smoak. I guess if there were more of those than I thought, I'd probably be more in favor of this trade.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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His intro to the big leagues did not go as planned, but over his age 23 and 24 seasons he posted average power in a pitcher's park and a well above-average walk rate. His K-rate is not ideal but far from unmanageable. From what I know about his swing and approach, I don't believe a .265 BABIP is his true talent level. He may well bust, but he's still a very intriguing young bat and, considering Baltimore's situation, I wouldn't hesitate to send away an expensive, flawed vet on the verge of free agency to acquire him.

I wouldn't be mortified by losing Reynolds, but I've never been as taken with Smoak as some. The OH, IMO, tends to be much, much more patient with other teams' prospects (even once and former prospects) than it is with those belonging to the Orioles.

I suppose I question whether Smoak will shake out to be a productive, everyday 1B in the ML...accordingly, I don't completely embrace the idea of sending an established player to Seattle to get him. Like I implied, though, I don't think Reynolds would be a massive, catastrophic loss.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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I'm not enamored by Smoak. But I'm not sure he's as close to that point as you think. One more season like last season and I think Smoak really starts to lose his shine. Even in 2010, when his LD% was much better, he couldn't crack a 700 OPS. I do like the walks.

I kind of thought he'd take an Adrian Gonzalez type path. At 23 he really just started to put it all together in AAA. And was lack luster at the MLB level with a 678 OPS. But at 24, even playing in San Diego where you could make a similar argument about the type of stadium he was playing in like Safeco, Gonzalez got his OPS up to 862. If Smoak can't do so something like that this year, I'm not sure he's got that much glimmer on him.

How many 1bs bloomed later than that in their careers? And those with over 1000 MLB At Bats at that point too? Especially of those that were at one point rated as highly as Smoak. I guess if there were more of those than I thought, I'd probably be more in favor of this trade.

In all honesty, if Smoak gets 500+ PAs in a hitter's park and doesn't break a ~.750 OPS, I'd probably look elsewhere to fill the position, but I think 2012 is the perfect time for the Orioles to take a gamble on a young talented player at a position of need to see if it works out.

It's worth noting that in 2011 Safeco suppressed total hits and doubles more than any other American League stadium.

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Fan4Life Hangout Veteran Council

Fan4Life

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In all honesty, if Smoak gets 500+ PAs in a hitter's park and doesn't break a ~.750 OPS, I'd probably look elsewhere to fill the position, but I think 2012 is the perfect time for the Orioles to take a gamble on a young talented player at a position of need to see if it works out.

It's worth noting that in 2011 Safeco suppressed total hits and doubles more than any other American League stadium.

I'd include Matusz in a deal for Smoak... I think at least JTrea would be on board with ir also.. :)

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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How many 1bs bloomed later than that in their careers? And those with over 1000 MLB At Bats at that point too? Especially of those that were at one point rated as highly as Smoak. I guess if there were more of those than I thought, I'd probably be more in favor of this trade.

Smoak may not work out. The vast majority of prospects don't. But you don't have to go too far down BBREF's similarity-through-age list for Smoak (#'s 2 and 3) to find a couple of good examples - Tino Martinez and Mo Vaughn.

He very well may not turn into an all-star or even an above average regular. In fact, the odds are against him. But I think he's a good gamble for the Orioles right now. Getting rid of Reynolds' salary alone might be a net gain, and it's not like this team is winning anything with him next year anyway.

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flashjordnk All-Star

flashjordnk

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It's worth noting that in 2011 Safeco suppressed total hits and doubles more than any other American League stadium.

Hmm, what's the statistical number for that? And how does that explain his better home OPS than his road OPS? Weird that he OPSed 771 at home, but a 100 points less on the road. Maybe just SSS though. Maybe it's about comfort and he is closer to taking off. I just can't find any solace in his numbers for the moment, but if someone told me two years ago we could trade Hoey/Jacobsen for Smoak, I'd definitely said yes.

Generally I do agree with you and SG. If you want to do something like this, now is the time. I'm just not sold it's the right move.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Hmm, what's the statistical number for that? And how does that explain his better home OPS than his road OPS? Weird that he OPSed 771 at home, but a 100 points less on the road. Maybe just SSS though. Maybe it's about comfort and he is closer to taking off. I just can't find any solace in his numbers for the moment, but if someone told me two years ago we could trade Hoey/Jacobsen for Smoak, I'd definitely said yes.

Generally I do agree with you and SG. If you want to do something like this, now is the time. I'm just not sold it's the right move.

I typically see people throw out home/road splits as if to suggest that park factors are irrelevant. Perhaps Smoak did feel more comfortable hitting at home. Perhaps it was a SSS. Regardless, we would expect that .771 home OPS to be higher in a neutral park. That's where the park factors come into play.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/doublesFactor

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