The O's "Bombs Away" offense

[Frobby]

Here's my point It's more then obvious that Bill James and others have established the importance of statistical analysis in projecting performance on the baseball diamond. However, because something can not be quantified doesn't render it superfluous. What happened to the Diamond Backs last year? What happened to the Red Sox? All of the data screamed that the Red Sox were going to win it all and the Diamond Banks were going to finish out of the running. Some of our sabremetric friends on the Hangout would explain what happened in Boston and Arizona as simple luck. Well I would suggest that there was a lot more operating in both club houses that contributed to their success or failure. Variables that weren't quantifiable but nonetheless essential to the end results. These are the things that I believe make baseball a great game. The things that are immeasurable.

Some pretty measurable things happened to the Red Sox, like losing 804 games to injuries (compared to 271 for Tampa) and having Carl Crawford not live up to expectations. That said, it would be foolish to say that chemistry wasn't also a factor, considering how they folded like an accordion down the stretch.

By the way, health is a huge factor in how any season plays out. wildcard's projections assume everyone is healthy, but that's pretty much never the case. Over the last six years, the Orioles have averaged 223 games lost to injuries from their position players, 162 games lost for the starting pitchers, and 130 from the relief pitchers, for a total of 515 games lost to injuries per season on average. As you can tell, by comparison the Red Sox were real outliers to lose 804 games to injury in one season, and Tampa was a real outlier in the other direction.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's my point It's more then obvious that Bill James and others have established the importance of statistical analysis in projecting performance on the baseball diamond. However, because something can not be quantified doesn't render it superfluous. What happened to the Diamond Backs last year? What happened to the Red Sox? All of the data screamed that the Red Sox were going to win it all and the Diamond Banks were going to finish out of the running. Some of our sabremetric friends on the Hangout would explain what happened in Boston and Arizona as simple luck. Well I would suggest that there was a lot more operating in both club houses that contributed to their success or failure. Variables that weren't quantifiable but nonetheless essential to the end results. These are the things that I believe make baseball a great game. The things that are immeasurable.

And I think it would be just as legitimate to say that the character and teamwork stuff was mostly after the fact rationalizations. The Red Sox hanging out drinking beer and eating chicken in the clubhouse would have been framed as good ol' boys Cowboy'in up if they win the last game.

[33rdst]

Some pretty measurable things happened to the Red Sox, like losing 804 games to injuries (compared to 271 for Tampa) and having Carl Crawford not live up to expectations. That said, it would be foolish to say that chemistry wasn't also a factor, considering how they folded like an accordion down the stretch.

By the way, health is a huge factor in how any season plays out. wildcard's projections assume everyone is healthy, but that's pretty much never the case. Over the last six years, the Orioles have averaged 223 games lost to injuries from their position players, 162 games lost for the starting pitchers, and 130 from the relief pitchers, for a total of 515 games lost to injuries per season on average. As you can tell, by comparison the Red Sox were real outliers to lose 804 games to injury in one season, and Tampa was a real outlier in the other direction.

Carl Crawford. Thank you. If there ever was a poster child for the impact state of mind has on performance it was the 2011 version of CC.

[Lucky Jim]

I won't ever argue that the soft information isn't important, but it's like Lucky Jim has responded: it's not quantifiable, it's not reliable, and it often ends up being what Bill James calls a "BS dump." In other words, its importance often is directly proportional to the lack of hard evidence available to support a position. For example, in the Luis Hernandez debates of a few years ago we were beaten over the head with soft information about his hard work and character and defensive prowess and ability to do the "little things" as a way to try to prove that his beyond anemic bat wasn't a big deal.

I'm sure character and chemistry and confidence all play roles. But nobody knows just how or how much or even how to acquire or refine such things, so I'll continue to be very skeptical about statements like wildcard's insisting that ephemeral, almost undefinable things are more important than stuff like health or skill or past performance.

Some pretty measurable things happened to the Red Sox, like losing 804 games to injuries (compared to 271 for Tampa) and having Carl Crawford not live up to expectations. That said, it would be foolish to say that chemistry wasn't also a factor, considering how they folded like an accordion down the stretch.

By the way, health is a huge factor in how any season plays out. wildcard's projections assume everyone is healthy, but that's pretty much never the case. Over the last six years, the Orioles have averaged 223 games lost to injuries from their position players, 162 games lost for the starting pitchers, and 130 from the relief pitchers, for a total of 515 games lost to injuries per season on average. As you can tell, by comparison the Red Sox were real outliers to lose 804 games to injury in one season, and Tampa was a real outlier in the other direction.

And I think it would be just as legitimate to say that the character and teamwork stuff was mostly after the fact rationalizations. The Red Sox hanging out drinking beer and eating chicken in the clubhouse would have been framed as good ol' boys Cowboy'in up if they win the last game.

These sum-up pretty well my point. Thanks, guys.

[jiminnj]

He's played a grand total of 230 major league games. More than half of those games have yielded mediocre-to-poor results.

So...either the sample size is too small to make a judgment (i.e., question mark), or his performance has been too erratic to make a judgment (i.e., question mark).

You're right about one thing, though...he's been consistently worse than Jones for the last two years.

Jones has a career 0.756 OPS, Reimold's career OPS is 0.779, 23 points higher. Over his short ML career, Reimold has outperformed Jones offensively and I expect his to do so next year too.

[atomic]

Leading the league in runs is what is important. They were one run from being the lowest in runs in the division. Start scoring more runs and stop worrying about home runs.

[Frobby]

Jones has a career 0.756 OPS, Reimold's career OPS is 0.779, 23 points higher. Over his short ML career, Reimold has outperformed Jones offensively and I expect his to do so next year too.

Questionable. Jones is two years younger than Reimold, and had a better OPS in both 2010 and 2011. One of the reasons Jones has a lower career OPS is because he was playing in the majors at an age when Reimold was in Frederick. In the same time period that Reimold has amassed his .779 OPS, Jones has tallied .781, at a younger age, without the three-month detour to the minor leagues.

That said, I think it's close to a 50/50 proposition who will have the higher OPS in 2012. But Jones's chances of posting an OPS above .750 are higher than Reimold's.

[Frobby]

Leading the league in runs is what is important. They were one run from being the lowest in runs in the division. Start scoring more runs and stop worrying about home runs.

Agreed in part. The 2010 Orioles scored only 613 runs. One big reason the 2011 Orioles scored 708 runs (+95) was that they hit 58 more homers than in the previous year. That said, as I already stated, improving OBP is a higher priority now than increasing the HR total.

[atomic]

Agreed in part. The 2010 Orioles scored only 613 runs. One big reason the 2011 Orioles scored 708 runs (+95) was that they hit 58 more homers than in the previous year. That said, as I already stated, improving OBP is a higher priority now than increasing the HR total.

How many runs did they score and how many home runs did they hit in 1983, the last time they won a championship?

2010 was an off year. 708 runs was actually one of the lower runs scored by the team in the last decade or so.

[Can_of_corn]

Carl Crawford. Thank you. If there ever was a poster child for the impact state of mind has on performance it was the 2011 version of CC.

Not that I put much weight into that sort of stuff but wouldn't Adam Dunn be an even better example?

[33rdst]

Not that I put much weight into that sort of stuff but wouldn't Adam Dunn be an even better example?

Yea another excellent candidate.

[Frobby]

How many runs did they score and how many home runs did they hit in 1983, the last time they won a championship?

2010 was an off year. 708 runs was actually one of the lower runs scored by the team in the last decade or so.

The average number of runs/game has been going down for most of the decade. 2011 was the first time the Orioles finished in the top half of the league in runs scored since 2004. Even in 2008, when they scored 782 runs, they finished 8th of 14.

I don't think 1983 is particularly relevant here, but FYI, that team led the AL in homers. The top 3 teams in runs scored in 2011 also were the top 3 teams in HR. The top 5 teams in runs scored were all above average in HR. Obviously, hitting homers helps a team to score runs. It's just not the only part of the equation.

[weams]

Not that I put much weight into that sort of stuff but wouldn't Adam Dunn be an even better example?

And see, I thought both of them got their big contract. Party on Garth.

[wildcard]

Things like reality don't stop wildcard's optimism.

Heeeeeyyy. Watch it.

[wildcard]

This does pretty well to define a best-case scenario for this team. Yes, if everything comes together, several players have peak seasons, and none of these guys have an off year or an injury this could happen. So the likely case is under 200.

I think "believing in themselves" is important. Just after ability to play baseball, health, training, coaching, available information, scouting, home cooking, sleep schedules due to newborns and toddlers, and about even with at bat music selections, the new OPACY announcer, and El Nina-related wind patterns.

I have to disagree here. I said believe in themselves. As in believe in each other and work together. Teams that don't believe in each other try to go to bat and hit a homer everything. They don't trust the other guy to do their job so each players try to overcompensate and almost surely falls short of his goal. Players that play together and believe in each other move runners over. Take the double instead of swinging for the fences, etc. The mentality difference is huge.