#Orioles and #Braves are making progress on an Adam Jones deal. Hearing Jurrjens is involved

[Sports Guy]

The Braves have the same issue facing them with JJ that Houston had facing them with Wandy Rodriguez. They have a pitcher that is effective for them, but that other teams are not sold on as a safe bet to translate performance to the AL. The result is that the Braves will have a hard time getting the value they want for JJ, and AL teams will struggle to get comfotable with the level of compensation that ATL is looking for.

Some differences in the Braves favor include the fact that JJ is younger and cheaper. Some differences workign against the Braves is that there is legit injury concern tied to JJ and his peripherals are not as strong as are Wandy's.

And let's face it, there is a reason why the Braves are looking to trade him. Yes, some of it is depth in young pitching but with a question mark like Hanson and a bunch of young, unproven guys in their system, why would they be looking to move the one guy who looks like you can depend on to give you good innings and a solid ERA?

[Lucky Jim]

The Braves have the same issue facing them with JJ that Houston had facing them with Wandy Rodriguez. They have a pitcher that is effective for them, but that other teams are not sold on as a safe bet to translate performance to the AL. The result is that the Braves will have a hard time getting the value they want for JJ, and AL teams will struggle to get comfotable with the level of compensation that ATL is looking for.

Some differences in the Braves favor include the fact that JJ is younger and cheaper. Some differences workign against the Braves is that there is legit injury concern tied to JJ and his peripherals are not as strong as are Wandy's.

Right. There's use value and there's trade value. Right now, the Braves seem to want to get what they consider Jurrjen's prior use value (the 180 innings of 2.80-3.60 ERA per year) in return for him. But their attempt to do this in the face of discounted trade value suggests that they recognize his use value will not be the same going forward. In other words, there's an element of the Braves being the Braves, and hoping they can trick the O's (or some other team) into paying equal value to Jurrjen's past performance.

[LookinUp]

Right...and that's what I meant when I said I hate this question.

I hate how the Orioles are focused solely on pitching.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that pitching should be in the deal. But I would like to get one very good position prospect as well....unless you have those prospects coming back in other deals.

Which is why it makes sense for DD to be patient.

If there's a natural fit for AJ, it very well could be the Nats. They'll have the top blocked prospect we need (Rendon) and some pitching to add. This trade could happen anytime between Feb 16 and July 31. I doubt we accept a PTBNL that we cannot take for 6 months, so this likely wouldn't happen until July.

Maybe the Nats don't want Jones. I don't know. I do expect there to be other options than the Braves though.

[NCRaven]

So, can you get one of those 4 plus PRado and JJ? If you can, can you flip JJ elsewhere and get more players? If Det wants him, I find it hard to believe they say no to Castellanos, Smyly and Voss.

I find it hard to believe that if Detroit was willing to give up those players for JJ, that Atlanta wouldn't have already done the deal.

[Stotle]

Which is why it makes sense for DD to be patient.

If there's a natural fit for AJ, it very well could be the Nats. They'll have the top blocked prospect we need (Rendon) and some pitching to add. This trade could happen anytime between June 16 and July 31. I doubt we accept a PTBNL that we cannot take for 6 months, so this likely wouldn't happen until July.

Maybe the Nats don't want Jones. I don't know. I do expect there to be other options than the Braves though.

The Nats need for a CF will most likely be determined by Werth's performance in the spring and then the season. If he is passable there, they will probably ride him out as long as they can -- maybe look to Jones as a FA in two years? I don't know.

[Sports Guy]

I find it hard to believe that if Detroit was willing to give up those players for JJ, that Atlanta wouldn't have already done the deal.

Why? I like Smyly and Voss but they aren't upper echelon prospects.

Castellanos probably would appeal to them but they probably want guys that can help them right now.

[Swampdonks]

Braves will not trade one of their top 4 young SP for Jones.

I've been saying this, but a lot of people don't want to listen because their hopes are incredibly high on any potential return for Jones. And in response to another poster, no, I don't have any inside information. But I do have a brain, and I don't say anything that I'm not really confident about. It's just common sense to know the Braves are going to trade Jurrjens, Prado, and a top pitcher for Jones. Period.

But who is in that top 4?

Minor can be had, because the Braves just drafted a Mike Minor clone, Sean Gilmartin, in the 1st round this past year. Also he's the guy the Braves are lowest on. But he won't be had in this trade if Jurrjens or Prado are involved. I'll add an IMO for that Johnny guy, but my opinion is 100% correct.

[LookinUp]

The Nats need for a CF will most likely be determined by Werth's performance in the spring and then the season. If he is passable there, they will probably ride him out as long as they can -- maybe look to Jones as a FA in two years? I don't know.

Certainly. Also, if they sign Fielder, their future outfield would include Morse, Harper and Werth. That makes Jones much less likely as well. I guess a lot will be figured out over the next couple of months with their direction.

[Swampdonks]

Regardless of whether or not you or any Braves fans think the trade is fair, it's been established that that's probably the minimum Duquette will accept. I'm not going to pretend I know what the Braves' FO is thinking, but if they want Jones, the package is going to have to top Jurrjens/Prado by a significant amount.

I understand that. And as reported, if he doesn't back down, a deal will not be made. It's that simple. I for one hope it doesn't, just because I'd rather move Jurrjens for a younger CF that will be under team control for more than 2 years.

[LookinUp]

Minor can be had, because the Braves just drafted a Mike Minor clone, Sean Gilmartin, in the 1st round this past year. Also he's the guy the Braves are lowest on. But he won't be had in this trade if Jurrjens or Prado are involved.

Funny...if I were in charge of rebuilding the O's, I wouldn't necessarily want JJ or Prado involved either. I like both players fine, but neither are the headliner I'd be looking for. Give me the right headliner, than we can discuss other pieces.

[Swampdonks]

And let's face it, there is a reason why the Braves are looking to trade him. Yes, some of it is depth in young pitching

FWIW, Wren hinted last offseason, and most writers that follow the team have said the same, that Jurrjens was going to get shopped this offseason no matter what. What killed the Braves was his injury, or a trade would have already been made. At some point, you just have to find ways to get Teheran and Delgado and Minor into the rotation.

[Sports Guy]

FWIW, Wren hinted last offseason, and most writers that follow the team have said the same, that Jurrjens was going to get shopped this offseason no matter what. What killed the Braves was his injury, or a trade would have already been made. At some point, you just have to find ways to get Teheran and Delgado and Minor into the rotation.

Yes that's true but no way anyone really believes that the Braves think they are trading a sub 4 ERA, 200 IP pitcher who is young and has a lot of service time left just because they want to see some other guys in the rotation, particularly a few guys who likely profile in the pen better than the rotation.

End of the day, they are trying to sell high on JJ because they have internal concerns about him...there is no doubt about that.

[Swampdonks]

We'll agree to disagree.

JJ was getting traded regardless, but obviously the Braves won't trade anyone for undervalue. Ultimately, I think he will be a Rockie.

And who profiles better in the pen better than the rotation, other than Viz? I'll hang up and listen to some expertise.

[NCRaven]

What does this team have long term in terms of offensive prospects? Our OF prospects are terrible.

What about Bigbie, Fiorentino and Majewski?

[Sports Guy]

Could the Braves be interested in Guthrie?

Of course, the question would be, why trade JJ if you are going to obtain Guthrie?

Well, the big difference there is JJ can help net you the player you want and need but by trading him, you do lose a guy to eat innings...and since Hanson is a question mark and Lowe is gone, that would be a lot of pressure on the young pitchers.

Or, if they aren't interested in Guthrie, what about Johnson? Someone to take some strain off of Venters and Kimbrel?

In other words, there is a trade that can be worked out here.

Swamp seems to think they would move Minor but not Minor and JJ, at least for Jones. But would that chance increase if the Orioles sent them Guthrie, so they get some starting pitching depth back? Now, if that happened, Atlanta would have to add in another very good prospect but all of a sudden, a 4 for 2 deal would seemingly make more sense for them.

And then, we trade Jurrjens elsewhere.