#Orioles and #Braves are making progress on an Adam Jones deal. Hearing Jurrjens is involved

[Sports Guy]

Makes some sense since the Braves really do not have an innings eater, but I really do think they are ready to pass the ball to Teheran (taking Lowe's spot) and either Medlen, Minor, or Delgado (taking Jurrjen's spot). Another top bullpen guy would make more sense for this team. Another reason I can't see this working is the Braves are really strained financially this year. They don't have the room to take on another $8M.

Well, the Orioles are taking Prado and JJ back too though, so that helps on some of the cost.

[weams]

None of them, (outside MAYBE of BMat and it's too soon to write him off) had the hype that Hanson and Teheran have had. I don't really buy into Delgado, Beachy, Minor or Vizciano like others do, but the other two are legit.

Actually, when Cabrera was using the PED's he was pretty hyped.

[Swampdonks]

Wren overpaid for half a season of Tex. He overpaid for 2.5 awful seasons of Nate McLouth. I'm not so sure he won't overpay here when all is said and done. It's just the terms of overpayment upon which we're disagreeing.

I'll give you Tex, although the Braves had Tex for a year and a half. We did end up trading him the next season at the AS Break, so he was with the Braves for a year.

The Braves gave up nothing of value for McLouth. It just turned out he sucked. Doesn't mean they overpaid for him.

[Lucky Jim]

Good post. And you're right as it is a matter of who budges. Personally, I don't think either does and a trade with the Orioles will not happen. I think the Rockies end up giving Wheeler, who the Braves are high on, and Jurrjens goes there.

To start off going line by line, Teheran will be in the rotation this year. Not Minor even though he has the experience. Viz will be in the bullpen this year to help out O' Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel and he will probably remain there for another couple years until his arm is needed in the rotation. He has a lot of work to do with his change up.

Don't forget Medlen. Check out his numbers from both the majors and minors. He is the definition of solid and gets forgot about a lot when dealing with fans not from the Braves. Problem is he's coming off TJ Surgery and missed pretty much all of last year. He will have a legit chance at the 5th spot if Jurrjens is traded.

It most definitely is a concern, but I think it's a concern the Braves are willing to have if it improves the offense. I'm concerned about it though because the Braves fell hard when Hanson and Jurrjens were both down in the 2nd half. I wish we had that one innings eater to help out the young guys (Not named Derek Lowe), but if the Braves weren't comfortable with the young starting pitching, they wouldn't be throwing out Jurrjens' name in a trade. Just my opinion.

Exactly. We're both reading tea leaves here. I understand where you're coming from. For me, there's not nearly enough certainty in the options available (most have little experience, many have prior injuries and limited workloads) to pin the move on confidence. It gives off the odor of a classic Braves "sell-high." I give you all credit for being able to do it (and do it consistently/historically). But I'm not buying the company line about confidence in the young pitchers. There's not enough stability year-to-year with healthy players who have long track-records, and you guys have a MASH-unit of high-upside arms. Jurrjens is perfect for you guys this year, if the Braves actually believe he was as good (and more importantly good-going-forward) as they're claiming.

That said, no disrespect intended. If we had your prospects, I'd be all for moving folks out.

[weams]

Denny Bautista, Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Hannaman

[Sports Guy]

Exactly. We're both reading tea leaves here. I understand where you're coming from. For me, there's not nearly enough certainty in the option available (most have little experience, many have prior injuries and limited workloads) to pin the move on confidence. It gives off the odor of a classic Braves "sell-high." I give you all credit for being able to do it. But I'm not buying the company line about confidence in the young pitchers. There's not enough stability year-to-year with healthy players who have long track-records. You guys have a MASH-unit of high-upside arms. Jurrjens is perfect for you guys this year, if the Braves actually believe he was as good (and more importantly good-going-forward) as they're claiming.

That said, no disrespect intended. If we had your prospects, I'd be all for moving folks out.

Exactly...It just doesn't make sense that they are trading JJ just they can see the young guys more.

They obviously do not believe in JJ on a long term basis...If they did, they could sell high on some of the younger, inexperienced arms and keep Jurrjens.

[Swampdonks]

Well, the Orioles are taking Prado and JJ back too though, so that helps on some of the cost.

True, but it probably won't be enough. Prado and JJ will make 9-10M combined while Adam Jones will make around 6M. According to the Braves beat writer, the Braves don't even have that extra 4M to pay for anyone right now. If the Orioles kicked in 2M or so it would probably work. But again, I still can't see them adding another major league ready arm. Whether I agree with that or not.

[clapdiddy]

Denny Bautista, Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Hannaman

Ouch!

/letters

[Swampdonks]

Jurrjens is perfect for you guys this year, if the Braves actually believe he was as good (and more importantly good-going-forward) as they're claiming.

For this year, absolutely. I don't think you'd find a Braves fan that wouldn't love to have Jurrjens on this team and know it's important to have another veteran arm on this team. At the same time, Jurrjens will not be re-signing with this team after 2013 when his arbitration is up so the Braves are stuck trying to find the best way to utilize his last two years. Do you trade him now and try to find an offensive impact somewhere, or do you hang onto him to avoid having 3 young guys in the rotation and most likely let him go in 2 years for practically nothing. It's obvious which way the Braves would prefer, although if a trade doesn't happen they would love to have that extra experience in the rotation this year and next.

[bluedog]

True, but it probably won't be enough. Prado and JJ will make 9-10M combined while Adam Jones will make around 6M. According to the Braves beat writer, the Braves don't even have that extra 4M to pay for anyone right now. If the Orioles kicked in 2M or so it would probably work. But again, I still can't see them adding another major league ready arm. Whether I agree with that or not.

You have to believe the O's would be kicking in a lot of cash or they would be taking back a bad contract in the process to help the Braves out on the money side. The Braves are in win-now mode, so if they are suffering from cash constraints, then getting payroll flexibility that would allow them to address other needs could be a centerpiece of such a trade.

The money issue also could explain why the Braves are willing to move JJ and replace him with youth rather than commit to him long term. Teams with financial constraints (Oakland, Marlins pre-2012) act in this manner - they sell veteran players and constantly go with young, cheap options. The fact the Braves are working to move JJ now doesn't surprise me at all given their market and depth of pitching.

[Roll Tide]

You have to believe the O's would be kicking in a lot of cash or they would be taking back a bad contract in the process to help the Braves out on the money side. The Braves are in win-now mode, so if they are suffering from cash constraints, then getting payroll flexibility that would allow them to address other needs could be a centerpiece of such a trade.

The money issue also could explain why the Braves are willing to move JJ and replace him with youth rather than commit to him long term. Teams with financial constraints (Oakland, Marlins pre-2012) act in this manner - they sell veteran players and constantly go with young, cheap options. The fact the Braves are working to move JJ now doesn't surprise me at all given their market and depth of pitching.

True ...But Jones is getting expensive and will need to be extended sooner to keep him from becoming a free agent.

[Lucky Jim]

For this year, absolutely. I don't think you'd find a Braves fan that wouldn't love to have Jurrjens on this team and know it's important to have another veteran arm on this team. At the same time, Jurrjens will not be re-signing with this team after 2013 when his arbitration is up so the Braves are stuck trying to find the best way to utilize his last two years. Do you trade him now and try to find an offensive impact somewhere, or do you hang onto him to avoid having 3 young guys in the rotation and most likely let him go in 2 years for practically nothing. It's obvious which way the Braves would prefer, although if a trade doesn't happen they would love to have that extra experience in the rotation this year and next.

Do the Braves expect to compete over the next two years? If so, it would be hard to argue against keeping him. Then they could let him walk for a draft pick, get two years of TOR results at arbitration-level value, all the while using him in a relatively leveraged scenario.

His cost is likely, what, $13m over two years? That means if he's worth only 2.5 WAR a season, that you'll be getting over $8m in excess value over contract. If you don't expect 2.5+ WAR per year, then he clearly doesn't warrant a big return. Your logic makes sense if the Braves' next contention hopes are more than two years away, I guess. But if they're a borderline contender, then the 175 IP of sub-3.50 ERA that you all seem to think he represents would be really valuable next year, all the while coming in well-under market. That is, if you acknowledge you need arms.

That said, perhaps it's just a gamble for offense based on optimism that the young guys are ready. Something tells me that it's more than that. But, as we say in the profession, it's a colorable argument.

[Swampdonks]

That said, perhaps it's just a gamble for offense based on optimism that the young guys are ready.

It's this. I know you don't follow the Braves much, but the confidence in these guys to perform and perform well is instilled throughout the organization. The Braves feel that they can win this year with or without Jurrjens, and trading him certainly does not mean they are losing hope for this season. They are sick of the under performance of the lineup and want to see improvements, and they think the upgrade there can be higher than the downgrade from Jurrjens to Minor/Medlen/Delgado.

I just think they see it this way. When you have a pitcher that you aren't going to re-sign, that hasn't finished the year the last two years, who's advanced stats show regression, with probably the best Major League ready pitching depth in the bigs, and this guy still has value, you have to at least look around and see if you can improve the team (in their eyes). Even if others outside of the organization such as fans, don't agree.

[Going Underground]

True ...But Jones is getting expensive and will need to be extended sooner to keep him from becoming a free agent.

I don't know Jones. He's a genuine talent, to be sure, and may want to take his skills to a market where there's a better chance of winning quickly. I'm told by some club sources that he's not shown much interest in signing a contract extension with the Orioles.

If this is really true ,I would try to get as much as the O's can. We have heard differring accounts. Some say Jones wants to play in a bigger market and others say he loves it here. I guess if he is traded we will never know.

http://www.masnsports.com/phil_wood/2012/01/deals-clogged-on-the-parkway.html

[Roll Tide]

I don't know Jones. He's a genuine talent, to be sure, and may want to take his skills to a market where there's a better chance of winning quickly. I'm told by some club sources that he's not shown much interest in signing a contract extension with the Orioles.

If this is really true ,I would try to get as much as the O's can. We have heard differring accounts. Some say Jones wants to play in a bigger market and others say he loves it here. I guess if he is traded we will never know.

http://www.masnsports.com/phil_wood/2012/01/deals-clogged-on-the-parkway.html

I agree with this ...But if the Braves truly are cash strapped like the Braves fan has said in this thread you'd think theyd be avoiding a guy thats getting expensive and wants Markakis type money.