What would save this offseason?

[Frobby]

You're assuming he replicates those numbers in a division with better pitching, and in a lineup with less production/protection around him. I'm not. In 421 PAs at the AAA level between 2009 and 2010, he hit .248 with 96 Ks and a .311 OBP. He's just as likely to regress to that type of performance as he is to replicate his Major League production from 2010/2011. And considering that he was forced to sign a contract with the Baltimore Orioles in late January, a lot of other teams apparently felt the same way. He probably would have been a better fit with the Yankees as a part-time DH/UIF but they weren't exactly chomping at the bit to sign him.

And if you multiply his ABs to match Vlad's, you're looking at around 150-160 Ks. Strikeouts are even more useless than ground balls, and are usually more destructive to a team's offense than ground balls(which do sometimes become hits, get bobbled and become errors, or at least advance runners and not just GDPs). Strikeouts are free outs. They accomplish nothing, maybe less. If he's an upgrade, it's only because he's not as slow as Vlad, one of the slowest runners in all of baseball at this point in his career, and can turn some of those GDPs and ground outs into Fielder's Choices and infield hits. But with the enormous increase in Ks, I doubt that the difference will be all that meaningful. My whole point is that we could have added OBP somewhere without increasing our team strike out totals by another 100 or more.

And I really don't understand this "strike outs don't matter that much" nonsense. Last year, the Nationals led the Majors in Ks with 1323. The Orioles had 1120. This offseason, we've added at least another 200 or so by signing Betemit and resigning ourselves to using Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold as everyday players, making a "top" 5 in Ks finish almost inevitable. Look at the top 5 MLB teams in terms of strikeouts from last year, and you'll see that they all have something in common: losing records. Not really a coincidence. I mean, there are exceptions of course, not every team that strikes out a ton is automatically a loser- for instance, the Braves(#6) and Diamondbacks(#8), but those teams have something that we don't: excellent pitching. In fact, our pitching is kind of awful. It could be better this year, but I doubt that it takes that much of a step forward because our defense is going to be every bit as awful as it was last year, and the offense is probably going to be even worse.

I think your point about Betemit's strikeouts is a good one, but for a different reason that you state here. Betemit has always struck out a lot (25.2% of his plate appearances before 2011), but in 2011 he struck out a lot more than usual (29.2%). Sometimes, that is a sign that a player is losing bat speed. And, his BABIP last year was an unsustainable .391. So, it is certainly possible that his bat speed is declining and that will continue, and even if not, a return to a normal BABIP range could knock 50 or 60 points off his BA and OBP. So, as an individual player, I don't think it is clear that Betemit will be an upgrade over Vlad. It remains to be seen.

The team strikeouts per se don't bother me much. The team struck out 64 more times in 2011 than they did in 2010, and yet scored 95 more runs. Vlad didn't strike out much at all, but his OBP was poor (.317) and he hit into a ton of DP's (23). So, if Betemit can maintain his career .336 OBP, I really won't care if he strikes out a lot. My worry is simply that he won't be able to do that.

[Enjoy Terror]

The Orioles are going to get eaten alive. I really don't think 100 losses is out of the question, especially if injuries are as much of an issue as they always are.

This team is much more capable, more talented, younger and deeper than the past two years, neither of which (despite their complete ineptitude) resulted in a 100 loss season. At this point it would be highly unlikely.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The Orioles were below the MLB average for strikeouts, and four playoff teams had more. So nice try getting cute with cherry-picking the numbers.

I didn't cherry pick anything. I pointed out that strikeouts don't necessarily equal losses, as reflected in the records of teams like the Braves and Diamondbacks(teams with above average pitching); high strikeouts, low batting average, low OBP, slow runners, awful pitching, awful defense, and playing in the toughest division in the sport(which, BTW, only got better this offseason), on the other hand, will equal tons of losses. Meet your 2012 Baltimore Orioles.

And that's cool that we were under the MLB average for Ks in 2011. But it has nothing at all to do with the point that I was making, which was that by adding 200-300 Ks more like the Orioles did this offseason, we're going to be right near the head of the pack this year.

How exactly do you think the offense is going to be worse? Because guys are K-ing for one out instead of grounding into double plays?

And I'd like to know what you think about the fact that if you gave Betemit Guerrero's PAs last season, he would have made an entire game's worth of outs less than Vladdy. Since baseball offense is about scoring runs and avoiding outs, after all.

Where exactly did we lose all of these double plays you keep referring to? By last years numbers for the 2 players, we would lose something like 8-10 DPs by switching from Vlad to Betemit. You would gain around 30 walks, and about 100 Ks. The switch from Lee to Davis will likely be a wash in terms of DPs(maybe a little on the positive side), but it will result in another 100 or so extra Ks.

Did we reduce the overall number of groundballs that the team is going to hit? Maybe. But not every groundball becomes a Double Play. I would rather have an out that potentially results in a runner advancing from second to third or scoring from third than one in which the batter never leaves the batter's box except to walk back to the dug out. And we added 200-300 of those by signing Betemit, and giving Davis and Reimold everyday jobs.

[Scrat1]

This wildly speculative Shelby Miller for Jones trade going on in the Cardinals rumor thread.

That would be awesome.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I would rather have an out that potentially results in a runner advancing from second to third or scoring from third than one in which the batter never leaves the batter's box except to walk back to the dug out.

And how often does that really happen?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

And how often does that really happen?

I don't know. About as often as Mark Reynolds striking out with RISP. I can't even tell you how many times I watched that happen last season(50 Ks and a .207 BA in 121 ABs w/ RISP, actually...not that I personally saw every AB).

Runners at first and third, 1 out...K. Runner at third, no outs...K. Runners at second and third, 1 out...K. It got so bad that I would just resign myself to a strikeout anytime he came up with runners on. And he rarely disappointed. At least a few of those dreaded groundballs in those situations would have produced runs directly, or indirectly by advancing runners.

Now Chris Davis is going to be an everyday run production black hole- er, player. Double your pleasure- er, suffering- I guess.

We could potentially have 2 guys on the team with over 200 Ks each(Reynolds and Davis). Betemit, Jones, and Reimold should each be good for 120 or more. Hardy and Andino will each contribute around 100. If you think that increasing the team's overall OBP by .010-.015 is going to offset adding 200-300 Ks and decreasing the overall BA(while staying just as slow on the bases as we were last year), you're welcome to that opinion. I just don't see it.