Pessimism

[Pedro Cerrano]

Is predicting 60 wins pessimistic or optomistic?

Pessimistic to the point of trying to stir the pot.

[TiredofLosing20]

Is predicting 60 wins pessimistic or optomistic?

Your schtick has run thin here.. but I have to admit I did laugh at this one. I am unsure if you are making some reference to an eye exam.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is predicting 60 wins pessimistic or optomistic?

That depends. Do you think there's some other non-Mayan calendar that predicts the end of the world sometime in mid-summer? If not, you're just (once again) setting a nice pessimistic baseline for the rest of us.

The O's could win 60 games if everything that could reasonably go wrong does. In all of the craziness of the last 15 years, the Syd Thrift senile bumbling, the Angelos-ordered trades of top prospects, the annual signings of has beens and never weres... through all that they've always won more than 60 games. And you know that. You just enjoy being that guy, the one who's more pessimistic than NMS and Moose.

[luismatos4prez]

This is how I read it.

[Hang10]

In investing terms they call this "capitulation". It's when a stock hits rock bottom, when everyone is so disgusted by the constant and unrelenting fall in price that they hate owning it, and even among the most loyal holders unload it. Once you get capitulation, the stock begins to turn around and moves up.

This concept may not be appreciated on this board however, where an economic windfall is considered snatching $2 Budweisers at Pickles pub on game night, or some similar life altering event.

[cindyluvsbrady]

One day the Orioles will rise like the phoenix from the ashes. I'm not foolhardy enough to say it'll be this year, but it will happen eventually. And it will be glorious.

It will be THIS YEAR!!!!!!

BELIEVE

[Barnaby Graves]

I don't know, man. 60 wins doesn't sound THAT outrageous when you consider the myriad of questions surrounding the pitching, the hitting (specifically Markakis' surgery and Roberts likely being done), and our incredibly tough competition. I'm not that confident in a rotation of Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, and Chen, and that's excluding Hammel.

[NewMarketSean]

I don't believe the Orioles will struggle to win 60 games but I also don't get how anyone can say with any certainty that they won't. Each year we sit here and say "we've improved" when, newsflash, this team has won 69, 68, 64, 66 and 69 games the last 5 years and there has been no improvement at all. Each year, people say "this team could be a .500 team" and each year, they are way short.

So this could be the year the O's suddenly tank worse than usual and win 59 games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[TheBee]

I thought my favorite non- Oriole of all time was actually going to spend the last year of his career with us, and now I see he wants to come back for one more year and end it in pinstripes. And Cespedes and Soler will soon be gone to other teams... There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home. I'm going to my safe place.

[atomic]

This is how I read it.

You don't like hearing the truth. "All the national media are against the Orioles. They hate us. "

They don't hate the Orioles. They are just being realistic. Like I am being. Bad team getting worse. Markakis is injured. I believe Reynolds and Hardy will be worse this year. No replacement for Vlad. Guthrie gone and a bunch of question marks in our starting rotation. I mean would it suprise you if our best starting pitcher this year had an ERA over 5?

Is our depth really better? Last year when Luke went down we had Reimhold to replace him. Andino replaced Robersts. Do you think we have that quality this year? Who is going to play right if Nick cant play? Who is playing second, who is playing third, who is the DH?

Anyway take your thoughts to the optomism thread.

[24fps]

In investing terms they call this "capitulation". It's when a stock hits rock bottom, when everyone is so disgusted by the constant and unrelenting fall in price that they hate owning it, and even among the most loyal holders unload it. Once you get capitulation, the stock begins to turn around and moves up.

This concept may not be appreciated on this board however, where an economic windfall is considered snatching $2 Budweisers at Pickles pub on game night, or some similar life altering event.

The metaphor is a bit strained isn't it?

I think a lot of the griping has to do with a handful of posters getting their nose out of joint because DD didn't severely and stupidly overspend for a 'prime" free agent or two. What's the investment terminology for that behavior?

[millertime]

It's certainly a reason to not sign free agents when you're a bad team. Free agents are almost always 28+ years old, they're almost always post-peak. Their first year is very likely to be their best. So when you sign a Fielder or a Teixeira to a 7-year deal at $20M+ per, you're wasting their best year or two or three on a team that's not going to win and provide the revenues to cover their contract. And by the time you've built up an organization that can win, they'll be average players taking up 25% of your payroll.

Now, if you're a 86-win team and you sign Prince Fielder there's a darned good chance that just put you in the playoffs and blew up your revenue streams for years to come.

Sorry but I disagree with this logic...especially in the Orioles case. If the Orioles had a stocked farm system then I might agree with you more but aside from Machado and Bundy (who are both still a few years away) our system is pretty bare. And I'm not talking about Fielder/Teixeira type contracts that are 6-7 year contracts. I'm talking about contracts like Cespedes, EJax, Darvish, CJ Wilson, etc. Are you telling me that you would have been against the Orioles giving out the contracts that any of those players got? You have to start somewhere and can't continue to say every single year that we can't pay "X" player because even with them, they don't make us contenders. That is a ridiculous way to think if you ask me.

[tntoriole]

In order for the Os to have become a winner under Macphail's plan, then Britton, Matusz, Arrieta had to become Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux.....it didn't work out and it won't work now unless these same pitchers somehow DO become Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux....pretty unlikely. Perhaps Dylan Bundy will be the next best thing to fail or maybe he becomes a true ace...but I see no improvement in pitching coming unless those guys step up in a way that is now very difficult to say that they will.

[utvolzac]

It still all comes back to the farm system. Free agency is not a real option because the guys worth having are not coming to a team with 14 straight losing seasons. Trades only work when you are dealing from a strength to fill a weakness but this club isn't really strong anywhere. D&D is the only way to improve but it takes time. I don't really know what has been holding them back all these years but it's not getting any better until they figure it out and really get this system cranking.

This is a pretty easy question to answer, and the answer can be applied to any question starting with "what's been holding the Orioles back". Answer = Angelos.

We have an owner who has basically neglected the entire latin market. Our scouting & facilities in Latin America are a joke compared to our competition. I'd say it's pretty tough to build a good farm system when your only building with players from the amateur draft.

[TheBee]

In order for the Os to have become a winner under Macphail's plan, then Britton, Matusz, Arrieta had to become Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux.....it didn't work out and it won't work now unless these same pitchers somehow DO become Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux....pretty unlikely. Perhaps Dylan Bundy will be the next best thing to fail or maybe he becomes a true ace...but I see no improvement in pitching coming unless those guys step up in a way that is now very difficult to say that they will.

Agreed that the youngish starters are the key. The only good news is that based on the sp age studies I read just because of these guys, I think the window of opportunity is certainly still open for them to become solid starters at the major league level.