Big test for Matusz today

[Sports Guy]

I think having Matusz be the opening day starter would be a bad idea. He worked out hard this offseason. He's earned a shot in the rotation. He's hardly earned an opening day nod. I don't think he deserves it. I'm not sure anyone "deserves" it but I certainly wouldn't give it to Matusz. If he makes the rotation let him start out with no pressure and let him work his way back up to #1 starter if that's what he does.

You could argue that giving him OD is a huge confidence booster, which is good considering the year he had.

BTW who on this team has earned the OD nod?

[PapaRick]

You could argue that giving him OD is a huge confidence booster, which is good considering the year he had.

BTW who on this team has earned the OD nod?

Exactly - no one on this roster deserves it. But if BMat keeps it up it will not be given to him, but he will have earned it based on his off season work and work in the spring.

[LA2]

Not all pitchers are created equal. Guthrie is not a big guy and he's also very athletic. It may be easier and more natural for him to be quicker from the stretch without it affecting his stuff much. It just might be something that Matusz and Arrieta are not capable of or at least not to that extent. Again, it's great if they can quicken their times but not at the expense of making their pitches easier to hit from the stretch and not if it's going to mess them up. I guess we'll see if Arrieta can do it. I'd like to see Jim Palmer's numbers for stolen bases and CS. He had a great move to 1B but I think he was pretty easy to steal against because of the leg kick. There are probably some great pitchers who were not good at stopping the running game but I'm just guessing.

Palmer's career stats over 19 seasons: 265 SB / 164 CS during 14,548 AB. SB-success % against Palmer: 62%. AB / SB = one SB per 55 at-bats. In 2011, Arrieta: one per 41; Matusz: one per 27; Guthrie: one per 261 (total career: one per 106 [3920 AB / 37 SB]).

Guthrie's career SB-success %-against: 37 SBs / 57 attempts = 65%, i.e. almost as low as Palmer's, but runners took off about twice as much on Jim as they did on Guts: once every 34 ABs vs. once every 69. Can't believe Buck let Guthrie leave!!

[El Gordo]

Not all pitchers are created equal. Guthrie is not a big guy and he's also very athletic. It may be easier and more natural for him to be quicker from the stretch without it affecting his stuff much. It just might be something that Matusz and Arrieta are not capable of or at least not to that extent. Again, it's great if they can quicken their times but not at the expense of making their pitches easier to hit from the stretch and not if it's going to mess them up. I guess we'll see if Arrieta can do it. I'd like to see Jim Palmer's numbers for stolen bases and CS. He had a great move to 1B but I think he was pretty easy to steal against because of the leg kick. There are probably some great pitchers who were not good at stopping the running game but I'm just guessing.

Palmer: 265 SB, 164 CS.

[LA2]

Palmer: 265 SB, 164 CS.

If you have any self-respect, you'll delete your post!

[CA-ORIOLE]

Palmer: 265 SB, 164 CS.

63%. Pretty good, especially considering his mechanics.

[Roll Tide]

You could argue that giving him OD is a huge confidence booster, which is good considering the year he had.

BTW who on this team has earned the OD nod?

I'd give it to Chen.

[PeteCanes]

Theres no way Matusz, assuming he doesnt fall apart or get hurt, starts the season in Norfolk. Why does everyone assume Tommy Hunter is guarenteed a rotation shot? If Britton gets healthy and

starts to throw well..and Tillman continues to pitch well..youve got the possibility of Chen, Hammel(what makes HIM such a no brainer too?),Arrietta. Matusz, Britton, and the option of Tillman.

That is a pretty good looking young(ish) rotation.Im not even thinking about Eveland, because I dont want to.

Lulz. He's in the rotation homey. Same as Guts would have been.

[byrdz]

Peanut gallery inexplicably MIA...

[Icterus galbula]

Peanut gallery inexplicably MIA...

Funny how that works, huh?

[ccbird]

You could argue that giving him OD is a huge confidence booster, which is good considering the year he had.

BTW who on this team has earned the OD nod?

Right, whoever Buck feels is our best pitcher going into the season should get the honor of starting opening day. I really don't understand why so many people feel Buck has to punish Matusz. As I've said before, there was certainly issues between the two last year but I think Brian has earned a fresh slate with Buck with the dedication he put into his offseason workout. It would be really petty for Buck to punish Brian in any way if he continues to have a good ST after working his butt off this winter. Buck's a hardass but I think he's fair. I'll lose a ton of respect for him if he does punish Matusz in some way.

[LA2]

63%. Pretty good, especially considering his mechanics.

63%. Pretty good, especially considering his mechanics.

Barber (lefty): 72 SB, 49 CS (8,573 PA)--59.5%

Cuellar (lefty, probably with slow TTTP): 77 SB, 100 CS (11,450 PA)--43.5%

McNally (lefty): 79 SB, 82 CS (11,228 PA)--49%

Flanagan (lefty): 145 SB, 97 CS (11,684 PA)--60%

MacGregor (lefty, good pick-off move): 109 SB, 72 CS (8,981 PA)--60%

Tippy (lefty reliever with great pick-off move): 33 SB, 44 CS (3,543 PA)--43%

Orosco (LOOGY): 128 SB, 40 CS (5,460 PA)--76%

Flat Breezy (lefty reliever): 13 SB, 5 CS (1,387 PA)--72% (SSS)

Phoebus (RH): 76 SB, 51 CS (4362 PA)--60%

Palmer: 265 SB, 164 CS (16,116 PA)--62%

Dobson (RH): 210 SB, 99 CS (8826 PA)--68%

Boddicker (RH): 235 SB, 74 CS (8999 PA)--76%

Erickson (RH): 210 SB, 76 CS (10,284 PA)--73%

Mussina (RH): 182 SB, 117 CS (14,593 PA)--61%

Slow, Slower, and Slowest (RH reliever): 85 SB, 41 CS (6,600 PA)--67.5%

Moe (RH reliever): 78 SB, 42 CS (6910 PA)--65%

The Accountant (RH reliever with very awkward slow delivery): 38 SB, 35 CS (4806 PA)--52%

Two-Pack / Stan the Man Unusual (RH reliever): 76 SB, 31 CS (3360 PA)--71%

The Otter (RH reliever): 95 SB, 22 CS (2889 PA)--81%

Of course, one wd expect many other factors besides who's pitching to impact SB %'s, but there are some interesting stats in this admittedly unsystematic (nostalgic) choice of pitchers.

[DrungoHazewood]

Barber (lefty): 72 SB, 49 CS (8,573 PA)--59.5%

Cuellar (lefty, probably with slow TTTP): 77 SB, 100 CS (11,450 PA)--43.5%

McNally (lefty): 79 SB, 82 CS (11,228 PA)--49%

Flanagan (lefty): 145 SB, 97 CS (11,684 PA)--60%

MacGregor (lefty, good pick-off move): 109 SB, 72 CS (8,981 PA)--60%

Tippy (lefty reliever with great pick-off move): 33 SB, 44 CS (3,543 PA)--43%

Orosco (LOOGY): 128 SB, 40 CS (5,460 PA)--76%

Flat Breezy (lefty reliever): 13 SB, 5 CS (1,387 PA)--72% (SSS)

Phoebus (RH): 76 SB, 51 CS (4362 PA)--60%

Palmer: 265 SB, 164 CS (16,116 PA)--62%

Dobson (RH): 210 SB, 99 CS (8826 PA)--68%

Boddicker (RH): 235 SB, 74 CS (8999 PA)--76%

Erickson (RH): 210 SB, 76 CS (10,284 PA)--73%

Mussina (RH): 182 SB, 117 CS (14,593 PA)--61%

Slow, Slower, and Slowest (RH reliever): 85 SB, 41 CS (6,600 PA)--67.5%

Moe (RH reliever): 78 SB, 42 CS (6910 PA)--65%

The Accountant (RH reliever with very awkward slow delivery): 38 SB, 35 CS (4806 PA)--52%

Two-Pack / Stan the Man Unusual (RH reliever): 76 SB, 31 CS (3360 PA)--71%

The Otter (RH reliever): 95 SB, 22 CS (2889 PA)--81%

Of course, one wd expect many other factors besides who's pitching to impact SB %'s, but there are some interesting stats in this admittedly unsystematic (nostalgic) choice of pitchers.

Dave Johnson (RH): 4 SB, 13 CS (1606 PA) -- 24%

Hal Brown (RH): 23 SB, 20 CS (4206 PA)-- 53%

Tippy (LH): 31 SB, 38 CS (3185 PA) -- 45%

Buddy Groom (LH): 8 SB, 5 CS (1207 PA) -- 62%

Dave Leonhard (RH): 8 SB, 22 CS (1403 PA) -- 27%

Jorge Julio (RH): 45 SB, 3 CS (1280 PA) -- 94%

All numbers as Orioles.

I don't remember Jason Simontacchi very much, but he was a righty who pitched for the Cards and Nats, last game about 5 years ago. In his career he threw 355 innings and allowed one stolen base, five caught. He's got a good case for the hardest pitcher to run on in history.

Kirk Reuter holds the post-1960 record for lowest SB% against (min 1000 innings) at 34%. Between 1920-1960 there weren't as many steals, and lots of pitchers held the opposition to very low SB% and SB totals. Bob Wickman is the other side of that coin. 835 MLB appearances, 4586 batters faced, and base stealers were 121-for-143 (85%) off of him.

Bobby Jenks has "held" the opposition to 50 steals in 52 attempts. The Nats' Henry Rodriguez has 97 career innings pitched, and has allowed 22 steals in 22 attempts, the most caught-less attempts since they started keeping track in 1951. I want to see this guy pitch - last year he threw 65 innings, led the NL in wild pitches, walked 6.5 per nine, runners steal on him at will, and still had a 3.56 ERA.

[Frobby]

Right, whoever Buck feels is our best pitcher going into the season should get the honor of starting opening day. I really don't understand why so many people feel Buck has to punish Matusz. As I've said before, there was certainly issues between the two last year but I think Brian has earned a fresh slate with Buck with the dedication he put into his offseason workout. It would be really petty for Buck to punish Brian in any way after if he continues to have a good ST after working his butt off this winter. Buck's a hardass but I think he's fair. I'll lose a ton of respect for him if he does punish Matusz in some way.

There is no chance at all that Buck is going to send Matusz to AAA simply to "punish" him for something he did last year. Buck is here to win games, and if he thinks it's clear that Matusz gives him a better chance to win than some other guy, he'll be on the OD roster. Now, if Buck thinks it is a close call, then Matusz could end up in AAA, not as "punishment," but for pragmatic reasons having to do with service time, options, etc.

In any event, while I feel Matusz is on the right track and likely to be in the OD rotation, he still has at least three starts to make this spring before that decision gets made, and the other guys have 3-4 more starts to make. No job has been won or lost yet.

[Frobby]

Of course, one wd expect many other factors besides who's pitching to impact SB %'s, but there are some interesting stats in this admittedly unsystematic (nostalgic) choice of pitchers.

League-wide SB% has changed a lot over the years, too, so you have to look at that.

I have been watching Orioles baseball for 46 years and there is one pitcher who stands head and shoulders above all others when it comes to his pick-off move -- Dave Leonhard, who pitched for the O's from 1967-72. In 337 innings of work, he allowed only 8 stolen bases in his career, while 22 were caught stealing (27% successful steal rate). He picked off 12 guys in those 337 IP, including 7 in his second year in the league. After that, runners pretty much just stopped trying to run on him at all.

The other guy who really stands out in my mind is Sammy Stewart, who had 27 career pickoffs in 956 IP. His particular talent was picking guys off 2B -- it was as if he had eyes in the back of his head, and his ability to quickly whirl 180 degrees and fire a strike to 2B was something to behold.

Tippy Martinez, of course, once picked off three guys in one inning. He was very good, but nobody was as good as Leonhard.

Among Orioles starters, I feel Mike Flanagan had the best pickoff move of any I've seen. He had 60 pickoffs in his career.

Among starters for other teams, the two who stand out to me are Kenny Rogers and Andy Pettitte. Rogers had 84 pickoffs in his career, and only 63 successful steals against him. Think about that for a minute! Pettitte had 101 pickoffs, and though runners ran on him more successfully than some others (117 successful steals), that's largely because Posada was such a mediocre defensive catcher.