40% into the season, the tone is changing

[El Gordo]

The algebra says 96-97 wins

Oh well then I guess our pitching is plenty good enough. Realistically though, the competition for the 2 WC spots is most likely between LAA, CHI, DET,TB, MFY, and the O's. Guess who has the strongest SP and who has the weakest.

[Can_of_corn]

Oh well then I guess our pitching is plenty good enough. Realistically though, the competition for the 2 WC spots is most likely between LAA, CHI, DET,TB, MFY, and the O's. Guess who has the strongest SP and who has the weakest.

I thought Cleveland was a powerhouse?

Actually there are four playoff spots to be divided amongst those 6 teams.

[brianod]

2/5 of the time our SP gives us an 73 % chance of winning and 3/5 of the time it gives us a 50 % chance. How many W's does that come to?

There are huge ebb and flows to every season. You can't use stats in this manner imo. The hard part of being a gm is to correctly determine who is red hot and will cool down and who is ice cold and will heat up. Then, you project those in AAA and determine what they will do if brought up. Bottom line is that to project performance after 1/3 of the season based on season stats in a useless exercise.

[Flash- bd]

I thought Cleveland was a powerhouse?

Actually there are four playoff spots to be divided amongst those 6 teams.

I was just thinking--couldn't this new rule actually work against us? What if we were to get 4th legitimately, only to play 1 game at Camden Yards, against, say, TB, lose, and go home? I dunno, the idea of a 1 game series in a sport like baseball is just unsettling to me in general...you almost might as well flip a coin.

This might sound radical, but I would suggest something like is done in European football's Champions League: a two leg aggregate decider. In this case, you could play both games at the 4th place teams' stadium so to give them reward for finishing higher, and the aggregate winner of the two games advances.

[blid]

Orioles rule!

[Can_of_corn]

I will be very pleased with the season if the O's lose a one and done WC game.

[brianod]

I will be very pleased with the season if the O's lose a one and done WC game.

I understand the sentiment but the main reason this team is so good is that they don't think like that. They expect to be good and they expect to win. I see no reason they can't compete with anyone. And I certainly am not willing to concede anything as the wins pile up.

[Flash- bd]

I will be very pleased with the season if the O's lose a one and done WC game.

Sure, but I'm not really talking about that. The rule just seems really silly to me. It used to be that if 4th and 5th tied for the WC then you have a 1 game playoff. Now there's a 1 game playoff regardless, even if 5th is 3 games back of 4th?

All kinds of silly scenarios could come into play; theoretically, 4th place could be put at a serious disadvantage if it were to clinch 4th with 5th place clinching 5th with a few games to go, providing that 5th had a #1 starter like say, I don't know, Justin Verlander. Hell, you could even see a situation where 4th and 5th go into the final day tied, 4th wins and 5th thinks: screw it, we'll throw out our 4 starter tonight instead of our #1 and if we don't win, we don't win, we've got our #1 ready for the WC playoff.

In general, as I said: 1 game playoffs in baseball? Doesn't make much sense from a competitive standpoint.

[Can_of_corn]

I understand the sentiment but the main reason this team is so good is that they don't think like that. They expect to be good and they expect to win. I see no reason they can't compete with anyone. And I certainly am not willing to concede anything as the wins pile up.

The main reason the team is good is that the bullpen is hugely improved from last year. They have been a bit lucky as well. Not "expecting to be good". Pretty much everyone on a MLB roster was the best player on their little league/high school/college team. They all expect to be good. They all have long personal histories of excellence.

Sure, but I'm not really talking about that. The rule just seems really silly to me. It used to be that if 4th and 5th tied for the WC then you have a 1 game playoff. Now there's a 1 game playoff regardless, even if 5th is 3 games back of 4th?

All kinds of silly scenarios could come into play; theoretically, 4th place could be put at a serious disadvantage if it were to clinch 4th with 5th place clinching 5th with a few games to go, providing that 5th had a #1 starter like say, I don't know, Justin Verlander. Hell, you could even see a situation where 4th and 5th go into the final day tied, 4th wins and 5th thinks: screw it, we'll throw out our 4 starter tonight instead of our #1 and if we don't win, we don't win, we've got our #1 ready for the WC playoff.

In general, as I said: 1 game playoffs in baseball? Doesn't make much sense from a competitive standpoint.

Still a huge improvement over the old system, where a wild card could have an even bigger advantage over a divisional winner.

[El Gordo]

I thought Cleveland was a powerhouse?

Actually there are four playoff spots to be divided amongst those 6 teams.

I think one of the MFY and TB take the East, DET takes the Central, and TEX takes the West. That leaves CHI, LAA, and one of TB and MFY to compete with the O's for 2 WC spots. All have better SP than we do.

[Can_of_corn]

I think one of the MFY and TB take the East, DET takes the Central, and TEX takes the West. That leaves CHI, LAA, and one of TB and MFY to compete with the O's for 2 WC spots. All have better SP than we do.

Not arguing that. Just pointing out that there are four spots open not two.

[Barnaby Graves]

We are all concerned about the starters. I don't think we are winning the world series or anything. But this year is much different than years past. I think Bruce Chen and Rodrigo Lopez have shown that they are guys that we can count on to give us a chance to win every time out at the very least.

Bedard and Cabrera are the two most talented pitchers on our staff. Yeah they are inconsistent, but they are young, and I think chances are one of them figures it out to the tune of a 4ish ERA.

If both of them figure it out, LOOK OUT. If one of them figures it out (which is likely IMO), we have 3 solid starters and I really do think we will trade for another. Worst case is that neither of them figure it out.. We'll still end up trading for a starter, and we'll have a slew of talented pitchers (including Penn) battling for the backend.

This is not Jose Mercedes, Josh Towers, Calvin Maduro or Willis Roberts that we are depending on to be #2s. These are our most talented pitchers getting a chance to grow with experience at the backend of the rotation.

Throw whomever you want out there at #5. I don't love Ponson, but I think he can do OK at #5.

I think our pitching has a big chance of getting better towards the end of the year, not worse.

:laughlol:

Well OK I guess the parallels might not be that close but I've definitely heard this script before. I just think people are overoptimistic and don't forecast for regression as much as they want to wish progression into existence. The only guy I think is almost certain to improve from an ERA standpoint is Arrieta.

[Flash- bd]

Still a huge improvement over the old system, where a wild card could have an even bigger advantage over a divisional winner.

I guess; a lot of times the WC team is better than the 3rd division winner anyways, so it's not a big deal. And at least in that case those teams play (potentially) 7 games. Worst case each team is getting the revenue from 2 home games, and TV revenue from 2 playoff away games.

I bet the aggregate idea wasn't even proposed/considered. It would be simply un-american.

[Barnaby Graves]

We are all concerned about the starters. I don't think we are winning the world series or anything. But this year is much different than years past. I think Bruce Chen and Rodrigo Lopez have shown that they are guys that we can count on to give us a chance to win every time out at the very least.

Bedard and Cabrera are the two most talented pitchers on our staff. Yeah they are inconsistent, but they are young, and I think chances are one of them figures it out to the tune of a 4ish ERA.

If both of them figure it out, LOOK OUT. If one of them figures it out (which is likely IMO), we have 3 solid starters and I really do think we will trade for another. Worst case is that neither of them figure it out.. We'll still end up trading for a starter, and we'll have a slew of talented pitchers (including Penn) battling for the backend.

This is not Jose Mercedes, Josh Towers, Calvin Maduro or Willis Roberts that we are depending on to be #2s. These are our most talented pitchers getting a chance to grow with experience at the backend of the rotation.

Throw whomever you want out there at #5. I don't love Ponson, but I think he can do OK at #5.

I think our pitching has a big chance of getting better towards the end of the year, not worse.

I screwed up the formatting on this, does anyone know why I have no edit button? Is it because I'm over 500 posts and it's amnesty June?

[Lucky Jim]

Well OK I guess the parallels might not be that close but I've definitely heard this script before. I just think people are overoptimistic and don't forecast for regression as much as they want to wish progression into existence. The only guy I think is almost certain to improve from an ERA standpoint is Arrieta.

Whatever.