Some stuff

[mcgraw238]

Interesting you picked 6/21. Right before 8 great starts his ERA dipped to sub 3.90. Let's back out thoise 2 bad outings at the end of May and see what his ERA was. People can twist figures anyway they want. Bottom line is Bedard is a premier starter in MLB. With a decent pen and a little offense he would have won 20 games this season. Geeez.

Well said. Pretty lame posture if you ask me. Its clear that people can cherry pick stats all they want. People posted similar numbers for Beckett and Santana as well. Yeh, they suck. Also suggesting that 2007 was Bedard's peak is speculative at best. What I see is a guy who several years back had the TJ surgery, came back to pitch a year later (they say the first year back your just gaining strength and learning to pitch again), gained confidence in his change-up, and flourished in 2006 and 2007 under Leo Mazzone. Bedard may have "peaked" but if he did he is sitting on a pretty high mountain and I bet he'll be there for several seasons.

[section18]

It's time to do to the Dodgers the same thing MacPhail did to the Angels this week. Everybody thought the Angels would be the winner in the Tejada trade talks but......Houston stepped forward and made the best offer.

I think Seattle will make the best offer or the Mets could surprise everyone and get back into the picture. The Seattle package of Jones and some of their young pitchers with Sexson added in as part of a salary dump would be the best for the Orioles. We definitely lack power in the middle of the lineup and a guy like Sexson for a year or two if we extend him would help us. We are in the process of dumping salaries that will allow us to take on Sexson for at least one year. Scott, Jones and Markakis would give us a pretty nice young outfield.

[Mackus]

Its pretty much impossible that Bedard isn't one of the 10 or so best starters in baseball. Especially among lefthanders.

But, its not unreasonable to suggest that 2007 very well could have been his career year. I think he'll certainly be around those types of numbers for the next few seasons, but he may never better them (the rate numbers, I fully believe he'll be able to go 200+ IP and get higher win totals with a better team and some luck in avoiding little nagging injuries).

[mcgraw238]

Its pretty much impossible that Bedard isn't one of the 10 or so best starters in baseball. Especially among lefthanders.

But, its not unreasonable to suggest that 2007 very well could have been his career year. I think he'll certainly be around those types of numbers for the next few seasons, but he may never better them (the rate numbers, I fully believe he'll be able to go 200+ IP and get higher win totals with a better team and some luck in avoiding little nagging injuries).

If you take Bedard out of the AL east and put him in the NL, 2007 will not be his career year.

[Mackus]

If you take Bedard out of the AL east and put him in the NL, 2007 will not be his career year.

Doesn't mean he'll be pitching any better, just that the raw stats might be better. And there are league/park adjustments to account for that.

I think he could certainly pitch even better, and until he stops improving, I won't predict that he'll fall back, but not many pitchers have their best seasons in their 30's. Even if it was his best season, his next 4-5 years will be incredibly valuable.

[mcgraw238]

Doesn't mean he'll be pitching any better, just that the raw stats might be better. And there are league/park adjustments to account for that.

I think he could certainly pitch even better, and until he stops improving, I won't predict that he'll fall back, but not many pitchers have their best seasons in their 30's. Even if it was his best season, his next 4-5 years will be incredibly valuable.

I agree with everything you said. I was thinking in terms of career year which the massess generally equate with wins, losses, ERA, strikeouts, etc. Put Bedard in the NL and his numbers go up.

[Rob H]

Its pretty much impossible that Bedard isn't one of the 10 or so best starters in baseball. Especially among lefthanders.

That sounds like an interesting exercise. I'll go ahead and grant LHP, though that means absolutely nothing in and of itself... since we're just measuring effectiveness, it doesn't really matter which hand they throw with, just so long as they get the job done. Given the choice between a righthander who is 5% better, or a lefthander, one would be stupid to pick the lefty (all other things being equal... age, injury history, etc...)

At any rate, these are the pitchers that I would take above Bedard, not factoring in contract, and only counting age as it applies to projection for next season.

Peavy

Santana

Webb

Sabathia

Beckett

Lackey

Oswalt

Haren

And those are only the guys who are pretty much without significant question marks. Bedard's injury history places him in the group of potentially dominant pitchers with significant questions... Halladay (health), Zambrano (control), Liriano (health), Carmona (youth), Escobar (health), Hamels (health), Kazmir (health/control), Young (health), Hernandez (youth), etc...

Bedard isn't in the very top-tier of pitchers. He's in the tier just below that. Top 25, definately, but probably not top ten most years... he didn't even make the top 10 last year. He ranked 13th in VORP... a single point ahead of Aaron Harang.

[Birds08]

That sounds like an interesting exercise. I'll go ahead and grant LHP, though that means absolutely nothing in and of itself... since we're just measuring effectiveness, it doesn't really matter which hand they throw with, just so long as they get the job done. Given the choice between a righthander who is 5% better, or a lefthander, one would be stupid to pick the lefty (all other things being equal... age, injury history, etc...)

At any rate, these are the pitchers that I would take above Bedard, not factoring in contract, and only counting age as it applies to projection for next season.

Peavy

Santana

Webb

Sabathia

Beckett

Lackey

Oswalt

Haren

And those are only the guys who are pretty much without significant question marks. Bedard's injury history places him in the group of potentially dominant pitchers with significant questions... Halladay (health), Zambrano (control), Liriano (health), Carmona (youth), Escobar (health), Hamels (health), Kazmir (health/control), Young (health), Hernandez (youth), etc...

Bedard isn't in the very top-tier of pitchers. He's in the tier just below that. Top 25, definately, but probably not top ten most years... he didn't even make the top 10 last year. He ranked 13th in VORP... a single point ahead of Aaron Harang.

I take Bedard over Beckett. I think when looking at this, you can't consider playoff performance (because many of these guys have never pitched in the playoffs) or the team they are on (obv. Boston pitchers will get a lot more wins than Bal pitchers).

[YardBirds13]

That sounds like an interesting exercise. I'll go ahead and grant LHP, though that means absolutely nothing in and of itself... since we're just measuring effectiveness, it doesn't really matter which hand they throw with, just so long as they get the job done. Given the choice between a righthander who is 5% better, or a lefthander, one would be stupid to pick the lefty (all other things being equal... age, injury history, etc...)

At any rate, these are the pitchers that I would take above Bedard, not factoring in contract, and only counting age as it applies to projection for next season.

Peavy

Santana

Webb

Sabathia

Beckett

Lackey

Oswalt

Haren

And those are only the guys who are pretty much without significant question marks. Bedard's injury history places him in the group of potentially dominant pitchers with significant questions... Halladay (health), Zambrano (control), Liriano (health), Carmona (youth), Escobar (health), Hamels (health), Kazmir (health/control), Young (health), Hernandez (youth), etc...

Bedard isn't in the very top-tier of pitchers. He's in the tier just below that. Top 25, definately, but probably not top ten most years... he didn't even make the top 10 last year. He ranked 13th in VORP... a single point ahead of Aaron Harang.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought VORP was a counting stat. Therefore, if Bedard hadn't missed the last month of the season, he would certainly be in the Top 10, seeing as he led the league in strikeouts by a massive margin and was a front runner for the Cy Young when he went down.

[Rob H]

I wasn't factoring in playoff performance, at least not much. Beckett was better than Bedard last year. Bedard's relative lack of health hurts him... an extra 18 IP is pretty important.

Just for fun, here's the VORP list last year.

1. Peavy

2. Webb

3. Sabathia

4. Carmona

5. Penny

6. Lackey

7. Oswalt

8. Hudson

9. Beckett

10. Santana

11. Smoltz

12. Haren

13. Bedard

14. Harang

15. Vazquez

16. Halladay

17. Escobar

18. Buehrle

19. Hamels

20. Wang

Edit:

Yeah, YardBirds... VORP is indeed a counting stat. But you can't deny that somebody who goes out and throws an extra 20 or even extra 50 innings at near the same level is going to be more valuable. Health is a skill, like it or not... and it's the one area where Bedard has a nasty history.

[natepurcell]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought VORP was a counting stat. Therefore, if Bedard hadn't missed the last month of the season, he would certainly be in the Top 10, seeing as he led the league in strikeouts by a massive margin and was a front runner for the Cy Young when he went down.

Thats the problem though. He DID miss the last part of the season and his history shows that he will continue to miss little parts of upcoming seasons as well.

Health and Stamina is a big part in being an elite pitcher.

[Rob H]

Thats the problem though. He DID miss the last part of the season and his history shows that he will continue to miss little parts of upcoming seasons as well.

Health and Stamina is a big part in being an elite pitcher.

Well said...

Especially since you have to consider his value when a portion of his starts are being made by your 6th or 7th best pitcher. If Bedard could give you a certain level of production and get a full season of starts, that'd be one thing... but giving starts to some of your worst options is gonna hurt the numbers from the rotation spot he was supposed to fill.

[UMterp08]

Here are the pitchers I'd rather have than Bedard:

Peavey

Beckett

That's it.

Here are the pitchers who I consider to be a toss up with Erik:

Santana

Webb

Sabathia

But no matter what fans think (both those who have and haven't seen him pitch) the only thing that matters is what the GMs of the Reds, Dodgers and Mariners think. So I think we'll be finding out what his "value" is in good time.

[Birds08]

I wasn't factoring in playoff performance, at least not much. Beckett was better than Bedard last year. Bedard's relative lack of health hurts him... an extra 18 IP is pretty important.

Just for fun, here's the VORP list last year.

1. Peavy

2. Webb

3. Sabathia

4. Carmona

5. Penny

6. Lackey

7. Oswalt

8. Hudson

9. Beckett

10. Santana

11. Smoltz

12. Haren

13. Bedard

14. Harang

15. Vazquez

16. Halladay

17. Escobar

18. Buehrle

19. Hamels

20. Wang

Edit:

Yeah, YardBirds... VORP is indeed a counting stat. But you can't deny that somebody who goes out and throws an extra 20 or even extra 50 innings at near the same level is going to be more valuable. Health is a skill, like it or not... and it's the one area where Bedard has a nasty history.

Every stat other than wins and games started was in favor of Bedard. If you honestly think Beckett gave his team a better chance to win than Bedard each time out there (lets assume they were both on the same team, because obviously Bostons offense would always give them the advantage), then I don't see the point of discussing this any further because I think you off base.

[MikeAD]

Here are the pitchers I'd rather have than Bedard:

Peavey

Beckett

That's it.

Here are the pitchers who I consider to be a toss up with Erik:

Santana

Webb

Sabathia

But no matter what fans think (both those who have and haven't seen him pitch) the only thing that matters is what the GMs of the Reds, Dodgers and Mariners think. So I think we'll be finding out what his "value" is in good time.

You've gotta take Santana over Bedard.

And I would take Sabathia over Bedard as well. I just think he is a more dynamic pitcher.

Webb on the other hand, Bedards better in my book.

Regardless, as you said we are trading this guy and even if hes not the best pitcher out there, hes probably the best thats avaiable (unless one is to make an insane package for Johan).

He probably won't be the most durable pitcher for the next 5 years, and he will probably miss at least 2-5 starts a year, but it doesn't matter becasue he wont be on our team .

And missing 2-5 starts is ok if you are already a good team, on the cusp of being an even better team.