Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Citing the number of saves Johnson had last year is really very meaningless. Valverde had similar numbers two years ago and it didn't mean a damn thing last year. Joe Borowski had 45 saves in 2007 and was out of baseball a year later. Johnson is better than that, but I also don't think he's going to match what he did last year. I think almost anytime you get the chance to trade a guy like that for a young starter with upside, you do it. If Johnson was at the level of, say, Craig Kimbrel, that would be a different story.

Maybe, but it's not meaningless to a lot of GM's. Unlike the guys you are referencing JJ has much better stuff and you could easily sell him as a shutdown closer imo. Valverde declined last year but he was also 34 and had a pretty impressive run from 2007-2011. I don't see any reason to believe the JJ would significantly decline (and I think he will decline), especially with a better IF defense behind him. Why wouldn't the Tigers just convert Porcello to closer instead of looking for one?

[waroriole]

Citing the number of saves Johnson had last year is really very meaningless. Valverde had similar numbers two years ago and it didn't mean a damn thing last year. Joe Borowski had 45 saves in 2007 and was out of baseball a year later. Johnson is better than that, but I also don't think he's going to match what he did last year. I think almost anytime you get the chance to trade a guy like that for a young starter with upside, you do it. If Johnson was at the level of, say, Craig Kimbrel, that would be a different story.

I was turning his argument, where he lists Porcello's upside and mentions JJ as a mediocre RP, around on him. I think it's a close call, but I'd rather move JJ for a better fitting piece.

[Stotle]

Maybe, but it's not meaningless to a lot of GM's. Unlike the guys you are referencing JJ has much better stuff and you could easily sell him as a shutdown closer imo. Valverde declined last year but he was also 34 and had a pretty impressive run from 2007-2011. I don't see any reason to believe the JJ would significantly decline (and I think he will decline), especially with a better IF defense behind him. Why wouldn't the Tigers just convert Porcello to closer instead of looking for one?

I think the number of saves isn't as important to "most" GMs as the number of games the player has served as closer. That is, most FO understand that saves as a counting stat isn't predictive, while still maintaining that there is value in having a closer that has shown an ability to succeed in that role.

So, 25 vs 50 saves may not be as important as whether the pitcher is established as someone that doesn't have issues in the 9th. Sounds like a silly distinction, but I think it gets discussion closer to where it is in FOs.

[Br10n]

Are the Nats loading up the pen so they can trade for Porcello?

[Stotle]

Are the Nats loading up the pen so they can trade for Porcello?

Not unless it's a three way to get Upton. Don't see Porcello as an improvement over:

Strasburg

Zimmerman

Gonzalez

Detwiler

Haren

[MachadOboutManny]

I would prefer for the O's to do what they've been doing, keep on keepin on. A tale of two cities, Washington making moves just to make them and Baltimore staying the course. Washington has had a miserable offseason, imo, while Baltimore has walked away from one bad deal after another and left the other teams to overpay for scraps.

:beerchug1:

[Stotle]

I would prefer for the O's to do what they've been doing, keep on keepin on. A tale of two cities, Washington making moves just to make them and Baltimore staying the course. Washington has had a miserable offseason, imo, while Baltimore has walked away from one bad deal after another and left the other teams to overpay for scraps.

:beerchug1:

I agree...if you define "miserable offseason" as putting some touches on perhaps the best team in baseball.

[Br10n]

Not unless it's a three way to get Upton. Don't see Porcello as an improvement over:

Strasburg

Zimmerman

Gonzalez

Detwiler

Haren

They kept Lannan in the minors all year. He would be a nice 6th starter.

[Stotle]

They kept Lannan in the minors all year. He would be a nice 6th starter.

It's really quite an impressive set of options for the Nats. Could stand pat and have one of the best rotations and bullpens in baseball to go with a Harper/Zimmerman/Werth/LaRoche middle of the order. Really impressive.

[Scrat1]

I'd make this trade.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe, but it's not meaningless to a lot of GM's. Unlike the guys you are referencing JJ has much better stuff and you could easily sell him as a shutdown closer imo. Valverde declined last year but he was also 34 and had a pretty impressive run from 2007-2011. I don't see any reason to believe the JJ would significantly decline (and I think he will decline), especially with a better IF defense behind him. Why wouldn't the Tigers just convert Porcello to closer instead of looking for one?

I think this is much less true than it was 10 or 15 years ago. There are precious few GMs today who'd give you much of anything extra for being a save compiler. C'mon, if even the Orioles have a GM who's not mesmerized by saves how many could be left?

[DrungoHazewood]

I would prefer for the O's to do what they've been doing, keep on keepin on. A tale of two cities, Washington making moves just to make them and Baltimore staying the course. Washington has had a miserable offseason, imo, while Baltimore has walked away from one bad deal after another and left the other teams to overpay for scraps.

:beerchug1:

Yes, you've pretty well nailed the Peter Angelos/Jim Hunter spin on the offseason.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think this is much less true than it was 10 or 15 years ago. There are precious few GMs today who'd give you much of anything extra for being a save compiler. C'mon, if even the Orioles have a GM who's not mesmerized by saves how many could be left?

I think we can view/sell JJ as a shutdown reliever/closer rather than a save compiler. Those guys seem to be doing quite well. As Stotle said, GM's are probably looking for some type of track record, but it's not unreasonable to me that JJ could be a shutdown closer for another 2-3 years. In that sense he should not be viewed anywhere near a Joe Borowski ... at least imo.

I'm kinda torn on this one. "Sabremetric me" says we should probably trade JJ this offseason and establish someone like Hunter or Strop to replace him. That said, it was pretty damn nice having a guy like JJ (instead of Capt Chaos etc.) coming into games and shutting the opponent down. Personally, I don't think we should trade JJ for Porcello and should hold out for more.

[kyleott]

I think we can view/sell JJ as a shutdown reliever/closer rather than a save compiler. Those guys seem to be doing quite well. As Stotle said, GM's are probably looking for some type of track record, but it's not unreasonable to me that JJ could be a shutdown closer for another 2-3 years. In that sense he should not be viewed anywhere near a Joe Borowski ... at least imo.

I'm kinda torn on this one. "Sabremetric me" says we should probably trade JJ this offseason and establish someone like Hunter or Strop to replace him. That said, it was pretty damn nice having a guy like JJ (instead of Capt Chaos etc.) coming into games and shutting the opponent down. Personally, I don't think we should trade JJ for Porcello and should hold out for more.

I would be hesitant only because I haven't totally given up on JJ as a starter. His development of his curveball gives him 3 plus pitches, and we all know how good of a frame he has.

In which case, him and Porcello are somewhat similar. Even with JJ losing 3-4 mph off of his fastball for stamina reasons, I have to think he has similar-to-better stuff.

[BillySmith]

We may have a few guys already who are better than Porcello, so why give up Johnson? No need in listing the names. He's no better than an Arrieta or Maturz or Britton I don't think.