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Orioles offer Wieters extension, but no deal seems close


Greg

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Conclusion. I think the CS numbers on the O's are enhanced by Showalters obsession with controlling the opponent's running game. Wieters CS numbers have gone up each year, starting with 24%, 31%, and then during the Showalter years, 37%, 39%, and 53% so far this year. Wieters might be slightly better offensively. He might be a little better defensively. He certainly doesn't run as well as Martin. Wieters is younger. He's probably better overall. I am not against signing him to an extension. I just hope the O's don't overpay. He's not great.

Would you please elaborate on this point? Does this "obsessing" over controlling the opponents running game cost the team elsewhere? Maybe Wieters has simply improved over that time? Seems like you're grasping at a way to knock an area that he is superior. Not saying that's what it is definitively, but I would like to hear/read more on what makes you say this.

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The O's should trade him this offseason for the following reasons:

1. Can't afford him, need to use the money for the starting rotation

2. He doesn't hit well enough to play anywhere but catcher.

3. His catching skills are likely to decline sooner than later

4. With two years until FA his value will never be higher

Alternatively the O's should just pay his arb numbers for the next two years and let him walk in free agency

I think Webbrick made some nice points that you're overlooking.

Which points do you like? I think there's very little chance Wieters gets traded, unless the return is just outrageous. Just thinking about it, it seems to me that top catchers very rarely get traded.

One thing that doesn't worry me much is the argument that Wieters' catching skills will decline as he ages. For me, that's a concern for 5-6 years from now.

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Both Joe Torre and Joe Girardi, two guys who know a little something about catching, were willing to let Martin go. That should tell you something about Martin. I doubt Buck is willing to trade or let Wieters walk. But of course what does he know.

Sure, Pittsburgh has been rattling off wins at a near-record pace and appears poised to battle with St. Louis and Cincinnati all summer for positioning in the National League Central with the prospect of spot in the playoffs not seeming like a pipe dream. Those are all not the norm for the Pirates, but what has been the catalyst for the transformation from a good team that could not close the deal in 2011 or 2012 to the team that has been one of the best in baseball through the first two months of 2013?

There are many reasons, and one that jumps out to me is the chemistry this team has with each other. The attitude and vibe in the clubhouse always seems to be positive and that comes from having positive people in key positions.

Enter Russell Martin.

And then consider how important Martin?s role on defense is for the Pirates. Michael McKenry has proven to be a valuable asset as a backup catcher but has not been consistent when playing for extending periods of time and also appears to be a great big green light behind the plate to runners on base. Martin?s presence behind the plate ? be it deterring potential base-stealers, framing pitchers or just handling the pitching staff in general ? combined with his steady numbers at the plate and his presence in the clubhouse has made him into one of the most important pieces of this Pirates team.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/has-russell-martin-been-the-best-free-agent-signing.html

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Which points do you like? I think there's very little chance Wieters gets traded, unless the return is just outrageous. Just thinking about it, it seems to me that top catchers very rarely get traded.

One thing that doesn't worry me much is the argument that Wieters' catching skills will decline as he ages. For me, that's a concern for 5-6 years from now.

Ok, I'll buy that his catching skills may not decline anytime soon, but I envision that happening somewhat with his health/durability declining (which was made as a separate point). Other than that I thought all the points were valid, particularly the unnumbered point about not extending him at all and just keeping him through free agency.

As far as doing/not doing as others team do, I'm hoping we'll have a little more vision to look beyond that. If a GM values Wieters really high (like a lot of people here) then we should look at dealing him. I guess I have some issues about his value/future value in the coming years with a higher salary and/or extension mixed in there. Obviously not practical to deal him right now with our catching depth and a viable backup plan.

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I was beating the drums all offseason to trade Jim Johnson for a starting pitcher, like Rick Porcello. I think this would have helped the O's this year but more importantly we now have to do something with Johnson this off season when:

1. He will be coming off a so/so year

2. He will be one year closer to FA.

I really can't see a scenario where the O's will bring Johnson back for the 7+ million he will get in arb, and his trade value will be lower than it was last year.

The same scenario will play out as Wieters approaches Free Agency

I think people are way over valuing Wieter offense... that I think can be cheaply replace.

His defense is his value and my hypothesis is that he will decline in his 29-32 years

If I thought his defense would stay where it is today until he is 33, I'd be all for giving him a big extension.

I think his defense will decline fairly pecipitously and that's why I believe he should be traded this winter.

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I was beating the drums all offseason to trade Jim Johnson for a starting pitcher, like Rick Porcello. I think this would have helped the O's this year but more importantly we now have to do something with Johnson this off season when:

1. He will be coming off a so/so year

2. He will be one year closer to FA.

I really can't see a scenario where the O's will bring Johnson back for the 7+ million he will get in arb, and his trade value will be lower than it was last year.

The same scenario will play out as Wieters approaches Free Agency

I think people are way over valuing Wieter offense... that I think can be cheaply replace.

His defense is his value and my hypothesis is that he will decline in his 29-32 years

If I thought his defense would stay where it is today until he is 33, I'd be all for giving him a big extension.

I think his defense will decline fairly pecipitously and that's why I believe he should be traded this winter.

It's a bit disingenuous to say that Johnson will be coming off a so-so year. Last year there was a high point when his ERA was 3.71. Then over the remaining 27 games he pitched in he was able to drop it down to a 2.49 ERA.

This year his implosion over a 2 week span saw his ERA rise from 0.95 to 5.25. Granted 5.25 is a lot higher than 3.71, but we're talking relievers here. He had 2 terrible outings where he allowed 5 ER and 4 ER. In 2012 he had 2 terrible outings as well (5 ER and 6 ER). His implosions last year didn't happen until mid July. His ERA spike this year is because it happened mid May.

If he keeps pitching the way he is now, then he'll see similar success this year like last year. Personally I'd like to see him traded as well. I'd have loved to get Porcello for him.

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I was beating the drums all offseason to trade Jim Johnson for a starting pitcher, like Rick Porcello. I think this would have helped the O's this year but more importantly we now have to do something with Johnson this off season when:

1. He will be coming off a so/so year

2. He will be one year closer to FA.

I really can't see a scenario where the O's will bring Johnson back for the 7+ million he will get in arb, and his trade value will be lower than it was last year.

The same scenario will play out as Wieters approaches Free Agency

I think people are way over valuing Wieter offense... that I think can be cheaply replace.

His defense is his value and my hypothesis is that he will decline in his 29-32 years

If I thought his defense would stay where it is today until he is 33, I'd be all for giving him a big extension.

I think his defense will decline fairly pecipitously and that's why I believe he should be traded this winter.

Rick Porcello? The guy with a 5.21 ERA. Who only had one year with his ERA below 4.59. He also pitches in a pitchers park. I know he is only 24 but he seems like alot of the O's young pitchers.

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It's a bit disingenuous to say that Johnson will be coming off a so-so year. Last year there was a high point when his ERA was 3.71. Then over the remaining 27 games he pitched in he was able to drop it down to a 2.49 ERA.

This year his implosion over a 2 week span saw his ERA rise from 0.95 to 5.25. Granted 5.25 is a lot higher than 3.71, but we're talking relievers here. He had 2 terrible outings where he allowed 5 ER and 4 ER. In 2012 he had 2 terrible outings as well (5 ER and 6 ER). His implosions last year didn't happen until mid July. His ERA spike this year is because it happened mid May.

If he keeps pitching the way he is now, then he'll see similar success this year like last year. Personally I'd like to see him traded as well. I'd have loved to get Porcello for him.

I was fine with looking to deal JJ last year (and probably will be next year). I'm just not much of a Porcello fan. Yes, I understand there's a valid statistical argument.

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I was beating the drums all offseason to trade Jim Johnson for a starting pitcher, like Rick Porcello. I think this would have helped the O's this year but more importantly we now have to do something with Johnson this off season when:

1. He will be coming off a so/so year

2. He will be one year closer to FA.

I really can't see a scenario where the O's will bring Johnson back for the 7+ million he will get in arb, and his trade value will be lower than it was last year.

The same scenario will play out as Wieters approaches Free Agency

I think people are way over valuing Wieter offense... that I think can be cheaply replace.

His defense is his value and my hypothesis is that he will decline in his 29-32 years

If I thought his defense would stay where it is today until he is 33, I'd be all for giving him a big extension.

I think his defense will decline fairly pecipitously and that's why I believe he should be traded this winter.

Lots of interesting points for debate in here. I don't think Wieters' defense will decline precipitously, but on the other hand, he has nowhere to go but down. It's not really possible for him to catch more innings, or be any better, than he has been for the last three years or so (at least, with respect to the physical aspects of catching, as opposing to calling the game, etc.). Chances are good he will end up catching fewer games in 2014-16 than he did in 2010-12.

I'm not sure why you say that people overvalue Wieters' offense, or that it can be replaced cheaply. Wieters is not an elite offensive catcher, but he's clearly well above average, so how do you plan to replace him cheaply?

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I'm not sure why you say that people overvalue Wieters' offense, or that it can be replaced cheaply. Wieters is not an elite offensive catcher, but he's clearly well above average, so how do you plan to replace him cheaply?

A's and Rays (among others) have done fairly well over the years with low cost catching platoons. Yankees are doing quite well at it this year also. As stated, our current lack of catching depth doesn't help much. Doesn't mean we can't put something together over the next year or so.

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A's and Rays (among others) have done fairly well over the years with low cost catching platoons. Yankees are doing quite well at it this year also. As stated, our current lack of catching depth doesn't help much.

Unless you buy into the "Molina saved 50 runs with his framing" camp the Rays don't do that well out of their Catchers. They would have been much better selecting a premium Catcher when one was available to them through he draft.

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I think the point is that the team has done quite well overall, not that they've done so well at the catching position itself.

Yea and the O's made the playoffs last season and are in contention this season with a black hole at second. Does that mean other teams should try it? Does it means that the O's should just sign Flaherty to a 10 year 20 million extension?

The Rays would have been a lot better off as a franchise if they had picked the elite catching prospect when they had the chance.

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Unless you buy into the "Molina saved 50 runs with his framing" camp the Rays don't do that well out of their Catchers. They would have been much better selecting a premium Catcher when one was available to them through he draft.

Molina an Lobaton are making a combined amount under 2 mil this year and outperforming Wieters in WAR. They have had good success in the past as well. I definitely do believe in pitch framing. I think it's possible to have a disparity of 50 runs between the best and worst on a 120/130 game rate stat. I wouldn't necessarily take that case to mean 50 runs, but I'd be pretty convinced that there is significant value there.

I doubt the Rays would seriously be considering extending someone like Wieters right now.

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Molina an Lobaton are making a combined amount under 2 mil this year and outperforming Wieters in WAR. They have had good success in the past as well. I definitely do believe in pitch framing. I think it's possible to have a disparity of 50 runs between the best and worst on a 120/130 game rate stat. I wouldn't necessarily take that case to mean 50 runs, but I'd be pretty convinced that there is significant value there.

I doubt the Rays would seriously be considering extending someone like Wieters right now.

They had Molina at +50 Runs in 107 starts. Not 50 runs more then the most inept framer over 120 games. Also the Rays' pitchers surrendered a higher OPS to batters when Molina was the Catcher. That seems inconsistent with a magician that turns balls into strikes.

The Rays are not the O's. Their ownership have the same love of profit as PA but produce less revenue. They wouldn't have offered the deals that the O's signed Roberts, Markakis and Jones to.

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