Who you Gonna Trade?

[webbrick2010]

I don' think we should trade Manny

I do think we should trade Wieters, packaged with a couple minor leaguers maybe we can get an established SP

[crawjo]

I actually can't even believe anyone would think of trading Machado. He's the best positional prospect we've had since Ripken. He's already playing at a very high level. What's the point of trading him? The return you would need would have to be astronomical, taking into account salary and years of team control.

Fortunately Duquette is not that stupid which is why this kind of topic would only be broached on a fan message board, not in an actual MLB front office.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don' think we should trade Manny

I do think we should trade Wieters, packaged with a couple minor leaguers maybe we can get an established SP

I'm sure the O's would be a far better team with Cliff Lee starting once every five days and Chris Snyder and Taylor Teagarden splitting the catching duties for 650 PAs a year. And by far better I really mean not better at all.

[DrungoHazewood]

I actually can't even believe anyone would think of trading Machado. He's the best positional prospect we've had since Ripken. He's already playing at a very high level. What's the point of trading him? The return you would need would have to be astronomical, taking into account salary and years of team control.

Fortunately Duquette is not that stupid which is why this kind of topic would only be broached on a fan message board, not in an actual MLB front office.

If there is some way to conceive of a possible reality where, if everything goes just right, glory and fame will come to us, someone will advocate for it.

But we all know that the holy grail of modern baseball is a very young, cost-controlled superstar. The only way you trade Manny and make the team better is for a package unlike anything the world has ever seen.

[Malike]

If there is some way to conceive of a possible reality where, if everything goes just right, glory and fame will come to us, someone will advocate for it.

But we all know that the holy grail of modern baseball is a very young, cost-controlled superstar. The only way you trade Manny and make the team better is for a package unlike anything the world has ever seen.

I'm not advocating anything, but I would never label a player untouchable. I've seen the potential for stupidity in humanity, like everyday.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

[webbrick2010]

I'm sure the O's would be a far better team with Cliff Lee starting once every five days and Chris Snyder and Taylor Teagarden splitting the catching duties for 650 PAs a year. And by far better I really mean not better at all.

Well I think they would be better and here is why:

1. Matt Wieter has topped out as a .725 to .750 hitter with long cold spells where he is close to an automatic out.

2. It is becoming more and more clear that his poor pitch framing is costing the O's pitchers dearly. The 2-1 strike to Haffner that we didn't get last night was just the latest example. Next pitch game tying HR. Same thing happened to Hammel in his last start. Wieter is losing 1/2 dozen strikes a game.

3. It would be unusual for a man of his size to remain a catcher past 30 yo.

And here is the real reason the O's need to trade him, we can't afford him. The O's need to sign Machado, Davis, and a couple of starting pitchers and their won't be money for a long term deal for Wieters. And we can probably get something of value for him.

Just my opinion don't get all bent out of shape because I know he is a big fan/OH favorite.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not advocating anything, but I would never label a player untouchable. I've seen the potential for stupidity in humanity, like everyday.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

Ok, I think we're on the same page. If the Marlins call up and offer Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, and $20M for Manny we should jump on it. But 99.99% of other semi-quasi-plausible trade offers should be shot down cold.

[Malike]

Ok, I think we're on the same page. If the Marlins call up and offer Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, and $20M for Manny we should jump on it. But 99.99% of other semi-quasi-plausible trade offers should be shot down cold.

/Yawn.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well I think they would be better and here is why:

1. Matt Wieter has topped out as a .725 to .750 hitter with long cold spells where he is close to an automatic out.

2. It is becoming more and more clear that his poor pitch framing is costing the O's pitchers dearly. The 2-1 strike to Haffner that we didn't get last night was just the latest example. Next pitch game tying HR. Same thing happened to Hammel in his last start. Wieter is losing 1/2 dozen strikes a game.

3. It would be unusual for a man of his size to remain a catcher past 30 yo.

And here is the real reason the O's need to trade him, we can't afford him. The O's need to sign Machado, Davis, and a couple of starting pitchers and their won't be money for a long term deal for Wieters. And we can probably get something of value for him.

Just my opinion don't get all bent out of shape because I know he is a big fan/OH favorite.

What you haven't done is explain how the Orioles would actually get better. Lee is maybe 2-3 wins per year better than Wieters, but he's also $15-20M more expensive, which is the going rate for 3-4 wins on the open market. So at best a Wieters-straight-up-for-Lee trade is a wash.

[DrungoHazewood]

/Yawn.

/Yawn. They really are contagious.

[webbrick2010]

What you haven't done is explain how the Orioles would actually get better. Lee is maybe 2-3 wins per year better than Wieters, but he's also $15-20M more expensive, which is the going rate for 3-4 wins on the open market. So at best a Wieters-straight-up-for-Lee trade is a wash.

I guess I don't believe Wieters value will do anything but decline over the next 5 years, and also I never mentioned trading Wieters for Lee, only that he should be traded for starting pitching. Wieters defense is overrated because he is poor at pitch framing while outstanding at controlling the running game. His bat does not play anywhere but catcher, and I don't think he will hold up long term at catcher. His trade value will only go down as he approaches free agency. We do not have the resources to overpay for a catch and throw guy and re-build the starting rotation.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 year old established superstar may be a bit premature. I haven't run him through 10 seasons of OOTP so I can't call him a superstar just yet. The sky is the limit for Manny, he's not there yet. You of all people are quick to point out how many players busted after looking like they were going to the Hall in their first year.

Actually, players who play well in the majors at 19 and put up a 5ish-win season at 20 have historically gone on to the Hall of Fame something like 2/3rds of the time.

[SteveO]

I would be fine with moving Matt Weiters if we had any viable catching prospects in the minors. We do not so trading him just creates yet another hole that has to be filled

Trading Manny is just silly talk IMO. No GM with half a brain moves a guy who has Manny's pedigree to date unless the return is just silly or he has several of those guys laying around (which the O's do not). Its a pointless debate there is zero chance that Machado is not on this team for the next 3-4 yrs at the very least and prob far beyond that.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok, here's some actual data on high-performing 20-year-old position players:

There have been 20 twenty-year-olds who had at least 4.0 rWAR.

Two of them are Mike Trout and Jason Heyward, so we'll exclude them for the time being.

Of the remaining 18:

14 are in the Hall of Fame.

One was Sherry Magee, who certainly could be in the Hall if things had broke differently. He ended up with 59 rWAR, and a higher career mark than probably 10 or 15 HOF outfielders like Hack Wilson, Jim Rice, and Andre Dawson.

Another was Vada Pinson, similar story to Magee, multiple years with AS appearances, MVP votes, 2700 hits, and 54 rWAR.

Then Claudell Washington, who certainly wasn't a Hall of Famer, but did have a 17-year MLB career.

And finally Dick Hoblitzell, who was kind of a old-school defense and speed deadball era firstbaseman who got some down-ballot MVP support in '11. Played 11 years, got over 5000 PAs.

So the history of good 20-year-olds is:

78% have ended up in Cooperstown.

Another 11% were well into the HOF grey area.

And the final 11% were merely good players with fairly long, productive careers.

That's what you are up against if you trade Manny.

[weams]

Ok, here's some actual data on high-performing 20-year-old position players:

There have been 20 twenty-year-olds who had at least 4.0 rWAR.

Then Claudell Washington, who certainly wasn't a Hall of Famer, but did have a 17-year MLB career.

So the history of good 20-year-olds is:

78% have ended up in Cooperstown.

Another 11% were well into the HOF grey area.

And the final 11% were merely good players with fairly long, productive careers.

That's what you are up against if you trade Manny.

Claudell Washington had a big coke habit. It messed up Doc Gooden and Darrell Strawberry pretty well also.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/wDoIM1dRzGo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>