This pretty much says it all about tonight

[Tony-OH]

So basically none of us outside of Mark_beckens would have left Chen in there but some of you find it defensible because Chen was "cruising". Ok, I disagree with it but I can accept that line of thinking.

I think that line of thinking will doom a manager more times than not though because I much rather use historical statistical data late in games instead of a hunch in order to get the best matchups. It doesn't mean it will work, but if you continue to put in the best statistical matchup late in games, statistically you are going to be successful more times than if you don't put in the best matchups.

I think Buck just thought the lefty-lefty matchup was good enough in the 8th inning and ignored Chen's historical stats after 100 pitches. This is not the first nor will it be the last time Buck ignores those stats. I honestly don't believe he puts much stock in pitch count related stats just judging by his managerial tendencies over the years.

For me, it's one of his weaknesses as a strategist. He's more of a hunch and momentum guy than I am. Then again, I'm self avowed Tony LaRussa-type matchup guy late in games.

[Tony-OH]

Frobby: Hi, my name is Frobby and I refuse to overreact.

OH: Hi Frobby!

one OH member: Mr. Frobby, how do you do it?

Frobby: I dunno kid, it's not always easy but common sense has to prevail.

another OH member - But Mr. Frobby I can't stop being reactionary.

Frobby: Take a deep breath... it's ok to write your overreaction, just don't hit "Post Quick Reply." It works wonders - you get to get the anger out of you but not look like the sky is falling to the OH public.

OH: But....but...

Frobby: No "but", but, what's even worse than overreaction is someone posting something as dumb as rochester just did....

Normally I would totally agree. In this case, Frobby is caught up a bit too much in Bucknosis. That when Buck hypnotizes normally smart baseball people into thinking anything he does is a smart decision, even when he's taken a ride on the hunch train and ignoring every single bit of statistical evidence.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think I may have had more issues with two Machado sac bunts. The first one more than the second perhaps.

[DrungoHazewood]

For me, it's one of his weaknesses as a strategist. He's more of a hunch and momentum guy than I am. Then again, I'm self avowed Tony LaRussa-type matchup guy late in games.

I'm very much an anti-LaRussaite, but I'm also one who strongly believes in the data that shows the more times you face a batter in the game the worse you're going to be. So I'm totally on board with getting a starter out of the game as soon as practical (defining practical as keeping him in long enough to not burn through the pen, but having a really quick hook in close games).

The entire setup of modern rosters is geared that way. You have seven or eight relievers specifically so that you don't expose your starters to unfavorable late-game situations. You have guys like Tommy Hunter throwing 100 mph gas for an inning specifically so Chen doesn't have to turn it back a couple notches to try to get through eight. But managers still have that little voice in the back of their head (I'm seeing a ghost of Paul Richards here) saying "real men complete their starts!" and "let's stretch him out, let him really feel good about getting through another frame."

[Can_of_corn]

I think I may have had more issues with two Machado sac bunts. The first one more than the second perhaps.

I am never sure Buck is involved when Machado bunts.

The kid likes to bunt.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think I may have had more issues with two Machado sac bunts. The first one more than the second perhaps.

I think the first one was fine, since it was probably more of a bunt for a hit with the fallback being a sac bunt. Good game theory to have the third baseman play a couple steps closer than he'd like whenever the situation comes up.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm very much an anti-LaRussaite, but I'm also one who strongly believes in the data that shows the more times you face a batter in the game the worse you're going to be. So I'm totally on board with getting a starter out of the game as soon as practical (defining practical as keeping him in long enough to not burn through the pen, but having a really quick hook in close games).

The entire setup of modern rosters is geared that way. You have seven or eight relievers specifically so that you don't expose your starters to unfavorable late-game situations. You have guys like Tommy Hunter throwing 100 mph gas for an inning specifically so Chen doesn't have to turn it back a couple notches to try to get through eight. But managers still have that little voice in the back of their head (I'm seeing a ghost of Paul Richards here) saying "real men complete their starts!" and "let's stretch him out, let him really feel good about getting through another frame."

Until the ninth with a three run or less lead. Then Robbie the Robot shows up and starts going "Danger! Danger! Save Opportunity!"

[eddie83]

I don't buy this argument at all. If Buck had gone to his bullpen, he could have pointed to all of the statistics that I have shown to prove he was making the right decision. The people that ask "what if" at that point are the true second guessers. If the reliever doesn't do his job, that's on him, not Buck. I see you agree that Chen was not the best choice to face to Hosmer, so then why risk a bad matchup in a 3-1 game? It's not like Buck's bullpen is bad.

What was Buck trying to there? What was he trying prove by having Chen face Hosmer? Why would you think Buck was his best option at that point despite all the mounting evidence that he was not?

If you are not going to match up in a 3-1 game with a runner on in the 8th inning with your starter at 106 pitches, then Buck should talk to Dan and exchange a reliever for another bench player because clearly he doesn't need 8 relievers if this his new approach to managing late in the game.

That is the part that bothers me, more the circumstances of it then actually leaving him in. Matusz never pitches anymore. I would of loved to of seen Casilla try to steal 2nd in the 9th instead of needing 3 hits. They seem to be worried about losing Asencio more than I would.

[Tony-OH]

Until the ninth with a three run or less lead. Then Robbie the Robot shows up and starts going "Danger! Danger! Save Opportunity!"

I don't care who you are, that right there is funny!

[coolbeans]

I'm not sure who you would rather have in the ninth than O'Day, he's been nails for us for almost 2 years now. That's his first loss of the year, and while reliever records aren't important it does show he hasn't blown games very often.

On the Hosmer home run, Wieters was set up inside and that's where Chen threw the ball. I don't think it had anything to do with fatigue because he got the ball where they wanted it. I'd question the pitch calling, not Buck. Hosmer stands far off the plate and you need to pitch him away to get him out. I don't know why they went with an inside fastball but whatever.

This game is on the offense, blowing opportunities throughout the game was why we lost.

This was my main problem. I was fine with Chen going back out there, but Buck usually makes the change if they allow a baserunner. I have no idea why he left Chen in there to face Homer as the tieing run but the biggest issue was Wieters calling for the exact same pitch he tattooed earlier and he did it again. I was cringing as that pitch as on its way because I noticed Wieters setting up inside and couldn't believe it. I still cannot understand what they were thinking!

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think the first one was fine, since it was probably more of a bunt for a hit with the fallback being a sac bunt. Good game theory to have the third baseman play a couple steps closer than he'd like whenever the situation comes up.

I don't have a problem with guys bunting for hits or even testing certain defenders but it looked like Tejada was playing in and he always impressed me as being good on those plays.

[Il BuonO]

I think many if you are forgetting that regardless of whether Buck left Chen in for the Hosmer AB he had just given up a stinging line drive to Cain on a ball he left up in the zone. It's the 8th inning in a two run game, if he was cruising now is the time to make a quick decision to maintain the lead. O'Day was already up and loose, there was no reason to leave him out there after that.

[Frobby]

I think Buck just thought the lefty-lefty matchup was good enough in the 8th inning and ignored Chen's historical stats after 100 pitches. This is not the first nor will it be the last time Buck ignores those stats. I honestly don't believe he puts much stock in pitch count related stats just judging by his managerial tendencies over the years..

There are two tricky aspects to pitch-count stats, particularly as applied to Chen:

1. Chen spent the winter conditioning with Brady. Therefore, his tendency to tire in games in 2012 aren't necessarily relevant to how he'll do in 2013. As an overall observation, it seems to me that Chen has demonstrated more stamina this year, and he did not appear to me to be tiring in this game.

2. You have to look at innings pitched and stressful innings, in addition to pitch count. If you've thrown 100 pitches in 5 innings and there have been two runners on base every inning of the game, that's one thing. If you've thrown 100 pitches in 7+ innings and have had a lot of 1-2-3 innings, that's another thing.

It's worth noting that in Chen's last start before yesterday, he was leading 3-1, got one out in the 7th inning, then allowed a double on his 102nd pitch of the day, and Buck pulled him. Obviously he's not applying a "one size fits all" approach with Chen in terms of whether he lets him go beyond 100 pitches or not.

[Frobby]

I think many if you are forgetting that regardless of whether Buck left Chen in for the Hosmer AB he had just given up a stinging line drive to Cain on a ball he left up in the zone. It's the 8th inning in a two run game, if he was cruising now is the time to make a quick decision to maintain the lead. O'Day was already up and loose, there was no reason to leave him out there after that.

Keep in mind that O'Day's splits against LHP this year are not good at all.

[Il BuonO]

Keep in mind that O'Day's splits against LHP this year are not good at all.

That really wasn't the point of the post.