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Machado and Davis decline - numbers do not lie


Pat Kelly

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Summary by ESPN stats guys and sweetspot columnist David Schoenfield. Confirms what we have been seeing and honestly worse then I thought.

The frustrating part is it is easy to say on Machado it's an adjustment but you wonder if Buck is "old school" on him and says he will figure it out rather than sit him down and say what's changed.

On Manny:

Let's start with Machado. His defense is so superlative that it's easy to overlook his offense, but he hit .310 with 39 doubles in the first half. For most of the season, he's been on pace to break Earl Webb's record of 67 doubles, but that pace has dropped to 62 as he's struggled at the plate in recent weeks. In fact, his offensive output has actually been sliding since June. Through May 31, he was hitting .331/.363/.515; since then he's hit .271/.293/.397 with 41 strikeouts and five walks in 47 games.

On Davis:

What's happened since the end of May has put the lie to that. For while Davis has continued to hit for power, with 18 homers and a .678 slugging, he has gone back to being an even worse version of his old self. Davis posted a 60/7 K/UIBB in those two months, striking out in 36 percent of his plate appearances
Overall:
The net effect is that Machado and Davis are now using up a lot more outs to create runs. Through May, the Orioles averaged 5.1 runs per game; since June 1, they've averaged 4.5 runs per game.
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Regression from those two was pretty much a certainty - it seemed pretty unlikely we'd have guys break the all-time doubles record and HR record in the same year. Offsetting some is Jones putting up an .894 OPS in July after OPSing .634 with 0 walks in June - and Matt Wieters who is on fire with a tidy 1.379 OPS post All-Star break after a dismal first half with the bat. Hopefully those 2 can carry the offense for a while until Davis and Machado get back on track.

Side note - and I know it's been well discussed elsewhere - but 0 walks the entire month of June! The Orioles kangaroo court should have fined him about 1 million dollars for that debacle. All is forgiven is he can go on a tear now though as a race really heats up.

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As others have said, regression was expected for those two... the league is now getting game film on Machado and knows how to attack him, and while Davis is good, he's not an all-time great like his first half suggests he is. Fortunately the pitching and some other guys have been stepping up recently, and well need the rest of the team to do that if we want to compete this year.

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The lack of discipline by Davis, Machado, and Jones continue to be troublesome. The stats in this article say it all. Three pillars of the team that can step their game up by being more disciplined at the plate.

Yes, they're swinging at more non-strikes, which is costing them at-bats.

Several other O's would benefit from better plate discipline, including too often not having smart ABs with a runner on third and less than two outs, and bases loaded chances overall. Instead of shrinking the strike zone until two strikes and looking for a good strike to drive to the outfield, they too often are swinging at pitches they have no chance of hitting well, leaving the runner stranded.

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The league has adjusted and now Davis and Machado have to adjust. All they throw to Davis is pitches down and in and he can't hit them. And he swings at pitches that are way low out of the strike zone. He is starting to look like Mark Reynolds at times recently. He needs to stop trying to destroy everything.

As I said before Adam Jones is the best player on this team. A couple of months of great hitting do not make me think that Davis and Machado are super stars.

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Running his mouth is sure the reason he hasn't hit home runs? Wow.

Yes I believe it has something to do with it. He got in his head the idea of breaking the record, and it has affected him. What he should have done when asked about the record is say "I'm not worried about it. I just want to keep hitting."

Remember baseball is 90 percent mental.

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Yes I believe it has something to do with it. He got in his head the idea of breaking the record, and it has affected him. What he should have done when asked about the record is say "I'm not worried about it. I just want to keep hitting."

Remember baseball is 90 percent mental.

Okay I see what you are saying. Sorry but I am

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Chris Davis is still having one of the top 2-5 offensive seasons in all of baseball.

The Machado regression is so predictable so I'm not all that angry about it, just frustrated. There was no way he could sustain this type of production with his lack of plate discipline and unsustainable BABIP.

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