What.. the.. Buck..

[gmelson26]

This is my thing. Don't deflect blame on JJ by placing it on the offense. Its like when someone gets in trouble at work, and instead of his manager disciplining the ONE person who did something bad, the entire team gets in trouble. Quite frankly, its cowardly on Buck's part and its a slap in the face to the fans and, more importantly, to the rest of the team.

This was my thinking as well with the original post. I don't care if Buck calls out JJ in the media. In fact I think that would be bad, but don't throw the offense under the bus when it put the team in a position to win. And what's more, I was originally prompted to make this thread because this isn't even the first or second time he's done this to the offense when they've put the team in a position to win. They are 4th in runs. You simply cannot and will not be able to win every game by 5 runs.

[TiredofLosing20]

This is a misleading fact, and a statement that supports nothing.

Koji has had 3 blown saves this year, but one of those blown saves was recorded before he was installed as closer. So he's really only blown two saves as closer of the Red Sox, making his save percentage as closer better than Johnson's as closer. Blown saves picked up as a middle reliever are extremely misleading because a setup man can notch a blown save without ever having a chance to actually earn a save. Uehara has fewer opportunities than Johnson because Uehara hasn't been closing all year, and the Red Sox don't generate quite as many saves chances as the Orioles because the Red Sox are a better team than the Orioles, and the Red Sox have a better run differential, leading to less save opportunities.

Uehara has clearly been the superior pitcher to Johnson both this year and during their careers. You stating that Koji has a worse save rate is a fact that doesn't successfully support any conclusion. You obviously didn't make any conclusion on your own, but you made the statement in an effort to discredit the assertion that Uehara is a better closer. Bottom line, Uehara is a better pitcher and closer than Johnson.

My point was that Koji wasn't necessarily a slam dunk solution.

If we are splitting hairs, then one of his saves came before he was "installed as a closer". Thus his adjusted for your logic save % is 84.6% (13-11). Even if you don't it is 85.7%. Thus if Uehara had had the same number of save opportunities, he would have blown roughly 7 games. This is a small sample size of course but this isn't significantly different from Johnson's 83% and 8 games. In 2010 Koji had a save % of 87%. Last year Johnson had a 94% rate. The point is that Koji if signed wouldn't have been a slam dunk better closer than what Johnson has been. Given your inferred premise that being "installed" as a closer has a statistical bearing on Save % then you need to look a their bodies of work as the installed closer. To date, I would argue that Johnson has been better. Does this mean I wouldn't have liked Uehara on the team, no, the opposite I thought they should have gone after him. But to assume he would have been the magic elixir to the perceived closer problem is naive IMO. Its kinda ifs and buts to be honest lots of factors. If we had kept Kevin Gregg maybe he would have been a better closer this year. Point being that relief pitching is not easy and closing is especially not easy. They are volatile commodities.

[Brooks The Great]

My point was that Koji wasn't necessarily a slam dunk solution.

If we are splitting hairs, then one of his saves came before he was "installed as a closer". Thus his adjusted for your logic save % is 84.6% (13-11). Even if you don't it is 85.7%. Thus if Uehara had had the same number of save opportunities, he would have blown roughly 7 games. This is a small sample size of course but this isn't significantly different from Johnson's 83% and 8 games. In 2010 Koji had a save % of 87%. Last year Johnson had a 94% rate. The point is that Koji if signed wouldn't have been a slam dunk better closer than what Johnson has been. Given your inferred premise that being "installed" as a closer has a statistical bearing on Save % then you need to look a their bodies of work as the installed closer. To date, I would argue that Johnson has been better. Does this mean I wouldn't have liked Uehara on the team, no, the opposite I thought they should have gone after him. But to assume he would have been the magic elixir to the perceived closer problem is naive IMO. Its kinda ifs and buts to be honest lots of factors. If we had kept Kevin Gregg maybe he would have been a better closer this year. Point being that relief pitching is not easy and closing is especially not easy. They are volatile commodities.

How can you possibly assert that Johnson has been better simply by extrapolating Uehara's save percentage? By every major statistical metric, by almost every advanced metric, and by taking into account all peripherals, Uehara is by far the better pitcher.

Uehara: 1.32 ERA/0.68 WHIP/75 K's in 54.2 innings

Johnson: 3.42 ERA/1.31 WHIP/40 K's in 52.2 innings

At the most basic glance, it's easy to tell who has been the superior pitcher. It's Uehara and it's not even close. He's better at preventing runs, and he clearly is harder to make contact off of.

But in case someone believes ERA and WHIP are overrated, or don't paint a complete enough picture, let's look at other metrics.

Strikeouts per 9 innings

Uehara: 12.3 K's/9

Johnson: 6.8 K's/9

Uehara gets almost twice as many of his outs via the strikeout. That right there makes him a drastically better pitcher, and the far better closer. Uehara's much less reliant and contact and luck to get outs.

Hits per 9 innings

Uehara: 4.6 hits/9

Johnson: 9.1 hits/9

Johnson allows almost twice as many hits per 9 innings than Uehara. That speaks volumes by itself.

Walks per 9 innings

Uejara: 1.5 walks/9

Johnson: 2.7 walks/9

Uehara has much better command and control. Once again, we're approaching a rate of two times the baserunners allowed for Johnson.

HBP

Uehara: 1 batter hit by pitch

Johnson: 7 batters hit by pitch

Batting Average Against

Uehara: .147 BAA

Johnson: .268 BAA

Batting Average on Balls in Play

Uehara: .209

Johnson: .318

Huge discrepancy here. Johnson is easier to make contact off of, and given he allows so many more baserunners, that makes him a much worse pitcher and much worse candidate to close games.

Swinging Strike Percentage

Uehara: 27%

Johnson: 14%

Again, Uehara is much harder to make contact off of. This is a great indicator that he is harder to hit, and a better pitcher from a pure stuff standpoint.

Really, the only major metric for which Uehara has a better rate than Johnson is home runs per 9 innings. And even then, their rates are close, as HR/9 is 0.7 for Johnson and 0.8 for Uehara, which are very comparable.

To say that Johnson has been better than Uehara in any overall manner is ridiculous. You're really only basing that on save percentage, and literally nothing else but your unsubstantiated opinion and inaccurate perception. To be honest, you stating that Johnson is better, or that it's tough to draw a conclusion as to who's better because relief pitchers are "volatile commodities", either demonstrates that you don't know what you're talking about, that you're just straight up incorrect, or that you have an agenda to defend Johnson and/or Showalter.

[Odenton O]

Talk about being serious. Buck is not ripping him a new one in his office. You are stuck in the 60's if you think managers can get away with ripping into anyone anymore. That ship has sailed. Nor do I think he should. But letting him know that his performance is not up to snuff and that he is disappointed in him, is just as powerful.

What makes you think that isn't happening? Do you really think there is any meaningful connection between what Buck says in a press conference and what goes on behind closed doors?

I'm sure he, JJ and Adair are all trying to get things worked out, but that isn't a conversation that needs to take place in the media.

[Moshagge3]

Haven't read this whole thread, but has anyone pointed out that 2013 Jim Johnson has now surpassed 2011 Kevin Gregg AND tied 2003 Jorge Julio in blown saves? Granted, JJ has had more opportunities than those guys, but we did practically run those other guys out of town on a rail.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Haven't read this whole thread, but has anyone pointed out that 2013 Jim Johnson has now surpassed 2011 Kevin Gregg AND tied 2004 Jorge Julio in blown saves? Granted, JJ has had more opportunities than those guys, but we did practically run those other guys out of town on a rail.

How do his overall numbers compare to those two?

[Moshagge3]

He has much better numbers overall, obviously. Julio and Gregg gave out walks like candy. JJ gives them out like... fancier candy? I dunno. I wasn't trying to make a formal stat-based argument, but just saying that the raw number of times you wanted to punch the wall and scream are the same.

[Rene88]

Is JJ going to be our closer today????

Krod coming in now?

I am done watching this team if he brings in JJ today.

[Tx Oriole]

+1000.... These guys battle their ***** off against two very good pitchers and put their team in a position to win and have it taken away by a guy that has no business being in the game when he is. Yet their manager throws them under the bus after the game.

Perhaps you are tired of Buck and want someone else to manage? Some complain

about him so much. DT back? Maybe Mazalli back. Are you already forgetting the

first playoff s

[Tx Oriole]

Perhaps you are tired of Buck and want someone else to manage? Some complain

about him so much. DT back? Maybe Mazalli back. Are you already forgetting the

first playoff spot in 14 years?

Buck is not perfect. But neither is any other human. But I am damn glad he is

manager.

[LAOSfan]

Is JJ going to be our closer today????

Krod coming in now?

I am done watching this team if he brings in JJ today.

Well, then goodbye I guess because JJ is warming up.

[Rene88]

That is disgusting.

[e16bball]

Is JJ going to be our closer today????

Krod coming in now?

I am done watching this team if he brings in JJ today.

Of course he's going to bring JJ in. What would you have him do instead? Bring in Hunter for the 8th and let K-Rod close?

Why you would feel better about Hunter pitching an inning with his 6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the past month, as opposed to JJ (1.74 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in the same span), is beyond me. We all get it --- JJ has blown a couple one-run saves in the past few games. But the entire bullpen has gotten shredded of late. It's not like there are a lot of options knocking down the door for Buck.

[Moshagge3]

That is disgusting.

More disgusting than the photo on the Wikipedia page for hemorrhoids? Who do you want in there?

[Rene88]

Krod should be closing this game. We deserve to lose.