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What do you think BRob will earn next year? (Not necessarily from the Orioles)


Frobby

What do you think BRob will earn next year (not necessarily from the O's)?  

109 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think BRob will earn next year (not necessarily from the O's)?

    • Only a minor league deal (or he'll retire)
    • Less than $1 mm
      0
    • $1 -1.99 mm
    • $2 - 3.99 mm
    • $4 - 5.49 mm
    • $5.50 mm or more


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Chose to stick with the O's???

The O's offered him a deal that no one else would have touched. Many even on OH lambasted that deal as a bad signing... although very few thought it would be this bad.

BRob didn't do he O's a favor, the O's did BRob a favor!!!

How do you know no one else would have touched it? I've done the math many times before: Even if you ignore 2005 as a fluke, from 2006-2009 he was worth about 4.0 wins a year. If you assume that from 2010-13 he would start off at 3.5 wins and decline at a reasonable half a win a year that's 11 wins over four years. In free agency 11 wins cost you, on average, $55M. He signed a 4/40 deal.

So while you can come up with a straightforward evaluation of Roberts as a guy worth $50M+, he instead signed with his own team for $40M. I think he could easily have gone to a winning team for at least comparable money, but he chose to believe in the Orioles (I know, nearly delusional) and stick around.

I know you believe all decisions that don't work out are the result of rank incompetence. But Roberts' contract was reasonable and defensible, although risky for a team with serious budget constraints.

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The problem with him as a bench player is where can you play him other then 2B/DH? I would think most teams would prefer a guy on the bench that can man SS or Third. Maybe if he can prove he can still be a viable basestealer that would open him up as a pinch hitter/runner type in the NL.

Yeah, this is the problem with Brob. Unlike a guy like Jamey Carrol who can play multiple positions (fairly well) as a utility player. I think Colorado might be a good fit for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him not getting more than a minor league deal or ST invite quite frankly. The NL might be his best shot. A lot will depend on how he looks ending up the season.

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How do you know no one else would have touched it? I've done the math many times before: Even if you ignore 2005 as a fluke, from 2006-2009 he was worth about 4.0 wins a year. If you assume that from 2010-13 he would start off at 3.5 wins and decline at a reasonable half a win a year that's 11 wins over four years. In free agency 11 wins cost you, on average, $55M. He signed a 4/40 deal.

So while you can come up with a straightforward evaluation of Roberts as a guy worth $50M+, he instead signed with his own team for $40M. I think he could easily have gone to a winning team for at least comparable money, but he chose to believe in the Orioles (I know, nearly delusional) and stick around.

I know you believe all decisions that don't work out are the result of rank incompetence. But Roberts' contract was reasonable and defensible, although risky for a team with serious budget constraints.

Because with the downturn in the economy that year hardly anyone was getting "market value" deals. Orlando Hudson, coming off a 4 win season, got a one year deal for 5 million for the 2010 season.

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Chose to stick with the O's???

The O's offered him a deal that no one else would have touched. Many even on OH lambasted that deal as a bad signing... although very few thought it would be this bad.

BRob didn't do he O's a favor, the O's did BRob a favor!!!

It is hard to say what BRob would have earned on the open market if he had not signed with the O's. Let's remember, he signed in the spring of 2009 and he was already under contract for 2009 when he signed his deal for 2010-13. He went on to have a very good 2009 season, .807 OPS and 56 doubles and 110 runs scored. I can't tell you he surely could have gotten 4/$40 mm on the open market that next offseason, but he might have. Dan Uggla is making 5/$62.5 mm, and Rickie Weeks is making 4/$38.5. My recollection is that the 2009 offseason turned out to be a buyer's market relative to some other years, but there was no way to know that in the Spring.

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It is hard to say what BRob would have earned on the open market if he had not signed with the O's. Let's remember, he signed in the spring of 2009 and he was already under contract for 2009 when he signed his deal for 2010-13. He went on to have a very good 2009 season, .807 OPS and 56 doubles and 110 runs scored. I can't tell you he surely could have gotten 4/$40 mm on the open market that next offseason, but he might have. Dan Uggla is making 5/$62.5 mm, and Rickie Weeks is making 4/$38.5. My recollection is that the 2009 offseason turned out to be a buyer's market relative to some other years, but there was no way to know that in the Spring.

Yes. Actually, both Roberts and Markakis signed their extensions in the winter, even before spring training in 2009. At the time, much was being made of the two extensions that were signed very close together (only a month apart.) It (the two contract extensions) was being viewed as a commitment to the future by Angelos and MacPhail to lock up two of our young, solid players for the foreseen future.

ROBERTS (February)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3921371

MARKAKIS (January)

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-01-20/sports/0901190155_1_fielder-nick-markakis-orioles-slugging-percentage

And then (as you alluded to), Roberts went on to have what was arguably the best season of his career, setting the all-time major league record for doubles in a season by a switch-hitter with 56 (Lance Berkman had the previous all-time record at 55.)

By the time that the 2009 season concluded, Roberts' contract extension wasn't looking bad at all.

Unfortunately, he was beset with numerous injuries throughout the next 4 years of said contract.

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The Orioles paid BRob more money in the past 4 years than the Red Sox paid Dustin Pedroia who won the MVP in 2008, way more in fact 40M to 27.5M

No way you can argue that BRob took a home town discount or that he stuck with the O's out of some higher moral valor. He was extremely well compensated.

As was debated at the time 2B have a long history of steep declines in their 31 to 33 seasons... many of us felt it was a deal to placate the fans and lock up a fan favorite and not a deal that made baseball sense.

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Yes. Actually, both Roberts and Markakis signed their extensions in the winter, even before spring training in 2009. At the time, much was being made of the two extensions that were signed very close together (only a month apart.) It (the two contract extensions) was being viewed as a commitment to the future by Angelos and MacPhail to lock up two of our young, solid players for the foreseen future.

ROBERTS (February)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3921371

MARKAKIS (January)

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-01-20/sports/0901190155_1_fielder-nick-markakis-orioles-slugging-percentage

And then (as you alluded to), Roberts went on to have what was arguably the best season of his career, setting the all-time major league record for doubles in a season by a switch-hitter with 56 (Lance Berkman had the previous all-time record at 55.)

By the time that the 2009 season concluded, Roberts' contract extension wasn't looking bad at all.

Unfortunately, he was beset with numerous injuries throughout the next 4 years of said contract.

2005 and 2008 were better then 2009.

I would also have much rather had Hudson at 1/5 then Roberts at 4/40.

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Because with the downturn in the economy that year hardly anyone was getting "market value" deals. Orlando Hudson, coming off a 4 win season, got a one year deal for 5 million for the 2010 season.

Ok, so if you frame it just right and don't sign Roberts when they signed him but instead waited and tried to capitalize on a brief market blip, maybe they get him cheaper. Or maybe they ditch him and sign Placido Polanco. But within about a year of Roberts' deal Kinsler signed a $100M contract, Pedroia bought out some pre-free agency years for $45M, Brandon Phillips signed a 10/98 deal. A lot of teams could have looked into their crystal balls and forgone large extensions for their second basemen and gotten into the Hudson/Polanco bidding war.

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Ok, so if you frame it just right and don't sign Roberts when they signed him but instead waited and tried to capitalize on a brief market blip, maybe they get him cheaper. Or maybe they ditch him and sign Placido Polanco. But within about a year of Roberts' deal Kinsler signed a $100M contract, Pedroia bought out some pre-free agency years for $45M, Brandon Phillips signed a 10/98 deal. A lot of teams could have looked into their crystal balls and forgone large extensions for their second basemen and gotten into the Hudson/Polanco bidding war.

I think that these are good points.

I wasn't at the OH at the time (January-February of 2009), but I didn't get the impression that a lot of O's fans thought that Roberts' contract was outlandish and/or foolhardy from what I read elsewhere and heard on sports radio, etc. On the contrary ..... I don't remember many Oriole fans that were particularly concerned with the fiscal responsibility of the owner of the team. If anything, Oriole fans seemed to be glad that he (Angelos) broke out his wallet and let Andy (MacPhail) lock up a couple of our young, solid players before they tested the free agent market.

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If they were, they weren't that much better, and it is hardly the point of my post.

Actually Fangraphs also has 2007 as being better then 2009 and it definitely effects your post. Your post said that Roberts best season (arguably) was after he signed the extension, the reality is 2009 was a pretty typical season for Roberts up to that point.

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Ok, so if you frame it just right and don't sign Roberts when they signed him but instead waited and tried to capitalize on a brief market blip, maybe they get him cheaper. Or maybe they ditch him and sign Placido Polanco. But within about a year of Roberts' deal Kinsler signed a $100M contract, Pedroia bought out some pre-free agency years for $45M, Brandon Phillips signed a 10/98 deal. A lot of teams could have looked into their crystal balls and forgone large extensions for their second basemen and gotten into the Hudson/Polanco bidding war.

I'm not framing it just right, I am talking about if Roberts could have gotten the contract that the O's gave him as a free agent. During the offseason he would have hit free agency I do not think that he would have received an offer close to 4/40. Would it have been bad luck? Sure, but the point still stands.

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The Orioles paid BRob more money in the past 4 years than the Red Sox paid Dustin Pedroia who won the MVP in 2008, way more in fact 40M to 27.5M

The Angels paid Josh Hamilton more money this year than the Orioles paid MVP candidate Chris Davis, in fact way more - $22M to $3.3M.

If you want to make a comprehensive list of disappointing, overpaid players who were outperformed by cheaper players we'll be here a while.

No way you can argue that BRob took a home town discount or that he stuck with the O's out of some higher moral valor. He was extremely well compensated.

He took a market-valued deal to stay with the Orioles, when he probably could have gone elsewhere to a team with a better shot at winning.

As was debated at the time 2B have a long history of steep declines in their 31 to 33 seasons... many of us felt it was a deal to placate the fans and lock up a fan favorite and not a deal that made baseball sense.

I don't know that second basemen decline any faster or slower than other positions. There have been 16 different second basemen with three or more 4+ win seasons from age 31-on. There have been 15 different second basemen who totaled 20+ WAR from age 31-on. It's not anything like a given that second basemen collapse when they hit their 30s. Lou Whitaker was about as valuable from 31-38 as Bill Mazeroski was for his career.

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I think that these are good points.

I wasn't at the OH at the time (January-February of 2009), but I didn't get the impression that a lot of O's fans thought that Roberts' contract was outlandish and/or foolhardy from what I read elsewhere and heard on sports radio, etc. On the contrary ..... I don't remember many Oriole fans that were particularly concerned with the fiscal responsibility of the owner of the team. If anything, Oriole fans seemed to be glad that he (Angelos) broke out his wallet and let Andy (MacPhail) lock up a couple of our young, solid players before they tested the free agent market.

Roberts wasn't young, but otherwise a lot of people thought that.

But here at OH there was a debate between the folks who wanted to resign him to a market-rate contract and the folks who thought it foolhearty to sign anyone who wasn't likely to push the 2011, 2013, etc O's towards the playoffs. It was after the fact, the next offseason, when the doubters took up the "look, we could have had Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco for almost free" argument.

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