Are we going to miss the 80 stolen bases?

[mefogus]

You can say that about absolutely anything. We didn't win with Nick Markakis, so should we trade him?

All I'm really trying to point out is that there are some aspects of the offense that stats like OPS don't capture at all, like team speed. If you had 9 Kevin Millars on your team, I'd bet the ratio of OPS to runs scored would be pretty bad.

Although speed helps, I do not think that it is an absolute necessity for determining who is going to do things like score from second on a single, going from first to third, etc... Be that as it may, both BRob and CPat were very good in all of those situations. I think THAT more than SBs will be a bigger loss.

-m

[Baltimoron]

In other words, Patterson and Roberts score as frequently as the MLB average for the base that they steal and the number of outs on hand.

A useful equation would be:

((Total 2BSB - Total 2BCS) * Frequency of scoring from second) / 9

PLUS

((Total 3BSB - Total 3BCS) * Frequency of scoring from third) / 9

EQUALS

Expected wins generated from the SBs alone (totally independent of numbers of outs at the time of the steal).

This is essentially what Drungo was estimating up above. However, the equation above is overestimated because it does not take into account outs on hand at the time of the steal.

-m

What you are getting at is along the lines of what Dan Fox does in calculating EqSBR as referenced above.

Equivalent Stolen Base Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqSBR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers both stolen base attempts and pick-offs.

[Frobby]

What you are getting at is along the lines of what Dan Fox does in calculating EqSBR as referenced above.

Is Dan Fox also the guy who does stats on how good outfielders are at holding runners? Are there individual stats available on that, or only team stats?

[Baltimoron]

Is Dan Fox also the guy who does stats on how good outfielders are at holding runners? Are there individual stats available on that, or only team stats?

John Walsh does them

Here's RF:

The following table shows all right fielders who had at least 80 opportunities in 2007. The ranking is by Runs/200, or runs saved per 200 opportunities (which is about a full season's worth):Name                   Opps   Kill+  Hold+  Runs   Runs/200Cuddyer_Mike            164    245    110   12.0   14.6Francoeur_Jeff          177    241    112   11.9   13.4Victorino_Shane         135    170    128    8.2   12.2Young_Delmon            171    168    121    9.2   10.8Rios_Alexis             160    124    112    4.5    5.6Teahen_Mark             183    172     95    4.8    5.3Abreu_Bobby             177     59    116    3.2    3.6Hermida_Jeremy          146    114    102    2.1    2.8Markakis_Nick           203    112    104    1.9    1.9Guerrero_Vladimir       121     92    113    1.1    1.8Guillen_Jose            212     83    107    1.2    1.1Kearns_Austin           200     98     98   -0.3   -0.3Scott_Luke               95    116     92   -0.6   -1.2Ethier_Andre            112    175     78   -0.8   -1.5Cruz_Nelson              90    128     88   -0.7   -1.6Ordonez_Magglio         142     58    108   -1.3   -1.8Nixon_Trot               82    127    101   -1.1   -2.6Winn_Randy              115      0    101   -1.8   -3.1Drew_J.D.               114     73     94   -1.8   -3.1Dye_Jermaine            185     84     89   -3.3   -3.6Encarnacion_Juan         82     33    105   -1.8   -4.3Hawpe_Brad              144     68     90   -3.2   -4.4Nady_Xavier              94     89     84   -2.3   -4.9Hart_Corey              144     56     95   -5.6   -7.7Green_Shawn              97     27     97   -3.8   -7.9Griffey_Ken             162     31     84   -6.5   -8.1Giles_Brian             130     22     83   -7.6  -11.6

[Baltimoron]

Dan Fox's individual throwing arms

Right Fielders

EQThr is the throwing number, SFR is his range statistic.

Name                  Pos        AdjG    Balls     SFR   EqThr  Total DefenseLuke Scott            Right       91.3     391    19.5    -0.4    19.1Alex Rios             Right      139.7     550     6.8     9.2    16.0J.D. Drew             Right      118.1     427    13.8     1.2    15.0Jeff Francoeur        Right      160.7     659     1.4    13.1    14.4Austin Kearns         Right      153.6     729    14.0     0.4    14.3Vladimir Guerrero     Right      103.6     415    14.1    -0.5    13.6Jeremy Hermida        Right      109.8     509    13.1     0.0    13.0Nick Markakis         Right      155.9     642     7.7     2.3    10.1Magglio Ordonez       Right      136.1     540    10.1    -2.3     7.8Shane Victorino       Right      102.6     464    -0.5     7.6     7.1Andre Ethier          Right       87.2     383     8.0    -1.1     6.9Delmon Young          Right      126.6     540    -6.1     9.3     3.2Michael Cuddyer       Right      136.3     569    -7.2     9.9     2.7Corey Hart            Right       96.7     472     8.4    -6.4     2.0Brad Hawpe            Right      138.1     547     3.3    -4.9    -1.6Randy Winn            Right       97.2     429    -1.2    -1.6    -2.7Xavier Nady           Right       83.3     334    -3.4    -3.7    -7.1Jose Guillen          Right      141.6     624   -10.2     2.0    -8.2Shawn Green           Right      102.4     405    -5.8    -4.0    -9.8Mark Teahen           Right      128.6     673   -17.1     6.7   -10.4Jermaine Dye          Right      128.8     604    -7.0    -5.2   -12.2Bobby Abreu           Right      148.7     631   -13.5     1.1   -12.4Ken Griffey Jr.       Right      129.8     617    -6.6    -7.8   -14.5Brian Giles           Right      118.3     477   -23.1    -7.8   -31.0

[Todd-O]

Seeing as though those stolen bases didn't seem to... uh-hum.... help get the team to even the .500 mark, I'm going to have to put a bold foot forward and say:

NO.

[mefogus]

Seeing as though those stolen bases didn't seem to... uh-hum.... help get the team to even the .500 mark, I'm going to have to put a bold foot forward and say:

NO.

This is perhaps the 4th or 5th post in this thread along the lines of:

"The Orioles stink, so we do not need SBs"

That is faulty logic to say that least, and I know that people are probably posting this in an attempt to be funny (although not very original). The history of baseball (an the Orioles in particular) is filled with cavalier dismissals of things that seem to have no bearing on winning and losing. No feasible number of SBs is going to make a bad team a good team, but that does not mean that they are not valuable.

-m

[Todd-O]

This is perhaps the 4th or 5th post in this thread along the lines of:

"The Orioles stink, so we do not need SBs"

That is faulty logic to say that least, and I know that people are probably posting this in an attempt to be funny (although not very original). The history of baseball (an the Orioles in particular) is filled with cavalier dismissals of things that seem to have no bearing on winning and losing. No feasible number of SBs is going to make a bad team a good team, but that does not mean that they are not valuable.

-m

Read about Billy Beane and his theory on the lack of importance of stolen bases. Reference: Money Ball. Apparently not everyone seems to think they are the end-all be-all.

The bottom line is this: I don't think the Orioles will miss either Patterson or B-Rob. This Orioles machine didn't work with them... perhaps it will work without them.

BUT. That being said... it's really hard to analyze the value of stolen bases when the team they belong to is one of the worst in the league. Don't get me wrong... I'm a huge O's fan... AND I'm not trying to be funny.

Unless you could supply me with circumstantial specifics about each stolen base... then I have to assume those bases probably didn't mean much... especially since the Orioles ended up with a .426 winning percentage. My next comment is just for the purpose of conversation... but how would you react if you found out that... say... 45% or more of those SBs happened when the O's were losing by 3+ runs after 7 1/2 innings. Perhaps other teams simply weren't holding the runners on... or had the game in the bag and didn't give as much attention to the runner as they should.

If these SB numbers were coming from a playoff team... then I'd think you'd have to assume they were instrumental in winning and therefore would be of greater concern if lost.

However, considering the O's performance last year (and the year before...) I see no reason to be even the slightest bit concerned that the guys who produced the numbers will be playing on other squads.

[Mackus]

Unless you could supply me with circumstantial specifics about each stolen base... then I have to assume those bases probably didn't mean much... especially since the Orioles ended up with a .426 winning percentage.

If these SB numbers were coming from a playoff team... then I'd think you'd have to assume they were instrumental in winning and therefore would be of greater concern if lost.

These two assumptions are absolutely ridiculous.

Would we also not miss Markakis' 110 RBI, or Bedard's 200+ strikeouts? Would a playoff team not regret having a 625 OPS somewhere in its lineup.

Just because the sum of the parts is good, doesn't mean all of the parts are good, and vice versa.

[Frobby]

My next comment is just for the purpose of conversation... but how would you react if you found out that... say... 45% or more of those SBs happened when the O's were losing by 3+ runs after 7 1/2 innings. Perhaps other teams simply weren't holding the runners on... or had the game in the bag and didn't give as much attention to the runner as they should.

Based on overall impressions from watching the games, and plain common sense, I doubt many of the SB's were in situations where a game was out of hand. Teams generally don't steal as much in those situations, and it certainly seems to me that that's the way the Orioles usually play it.

[mefogus]

Read about Billy Beane and his theory on the lack of importance of stolen bases. Reference: Money Ball. Apparently not everyone seems to think they are the end-all be-all.

The bottom line is this: I don't think the Orioles will miss either Patterson or B-Rob. This Orioles machine didn't work with them... perhaps it will work without them.

Billy who?

Seriously, Beane was less about dismissing SBs outright and more about defining a threshold whereby they become useless.

-m

[DrungoHazewood]

Billy who?

Seriously, Beane was less about dismissing SBs outright and more about defining a threshold whereby they become useless.

-m

And realizing that on a limited budget you can't afford to pay for something that is generally overvalued by the market.

[Todd-O]

These two assumptions are absolutely ridiculous.

Would we also not miss Markakis' 110 RBI, or Bedard's 200+ strikeouts? Would a playoff team not regret having a 625 OPS somewhere in its lineup.

Just because the sum of the parts is good, doesn't mean all of the parts are good, and vice versa.

Actually, they aren't that ridiculous... and I certainly wouldn't equate those SB to run production like RBIs. That is, of course, unless each of those SBs turned into a run. You can't weigh them the same... what you can judge, however, is the value of an actual runner on base (and their effect on the game) versus the impact of a runner thrown out in an attempt to steal.

You can call it as you would... but there are many more factors involved than the final SB number.

I still don't think that the Orioles SBs numbers will either hurt or help them to the degree that one might suggest that we will "Miss" B-Rob and Patterson's numbers... from my perspective, I think it's silly to be concerned over SB numbers. If SB numbers equated overall success... then the Orioles would have been, what, one of the better scoring teams in the AL.

But the truth of the matter is this:

The Orioles had the most SBs in the AL with 144.... but were 9th in runs scored with 756.

Also, you have to question the overall strategy of the Orioles if you remember them stealing bases randomly throughout the game. The Baseball Analysts published an summary article By Mike Current and Chad McEvoy that summarized it's analysis of SBs from several game perspectives... one of them being: The Game Situation.

They write: Research has repeatedly shown that in the majority of Major League Baseball games, the winning team scores more runs in one inning than the losing team does in the entire game. This revelation backs up Earl Weaver's advice to play for the big inning, especially early in games. Therefore, one-run strategies, such as the stolen base, make the most sense in situations where one run is of great importance (i.e. late in games or in low-scoring games).

[Frobby]

And realizing that on a limited budget you can't afford to pay for something that is generally overvalued by the market.

Is there evidence that SBs are overvalued on the market? (I guess Juan Pierre proves the point all by himself.)

[Todd-O]

Billy who?

Seriously, Beane was less about dismissing SBs outright and more about defining a threshold whereby they become useless.

-m

Billy is all about increasing the chance of scoring runs.

A runner on first is worth something like .9 runs... however, if that runner is thrown out stealing, that number drops way down to like .25...

He entire theory is driven by increasing the chance of getting runners on and moving them around the bases with utilizing the highest percentage methods: hence, he does particularly go out of his way for power or stealing.