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Are we going to miss the 80 stolen bases?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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MP Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

MP

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Sure, I'll take a Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson. As for Vince Coleman, he was overrated. I wouldn't want someone with that offensive profile starting in the Orioles outfield.

Looked him up out of curiosity. In 1987 he scored 121 times, and that's on a team that had 1 guy hit more than 12 homers. That's an Oriolesesque lack of power! The team stole 248 bases that year! That's insane. But anyhow, here's a trivia question (no cheating!)

In 1987, Coleman had 10 triples, but he didn't lead his team in that department. A certain teammate, who was 1 of the 2 STL guys with 100+ RBI that year, smacked 11 triples. Who was it?

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Looked him up out of curiosity. In 1987 he scored 121 times, and that's on a team that had 1 guy hit more than 12 homers. That's an Oriolesesque lack of power! The team stole 248 bases that year! That's insane. But anyhow, here's a trivia question (no cheating!)

In 1987, Coleman had 10 triples, but he didn't lead his team in that department. A certain teammate, who was 1 of the 2 STL guys with 100+ RBI that year, smacked 11 triples. Who was it?

Without looking him up, I'll go with Willie McGee.

I'll give Coleman credit for 1987, it was his career season. But a career .324 OBP and .345 SLG for an outfielder is unacceptable.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Looked him up out of curiosity. In 1987 he scored 121 times, and that's on a team that had 1 guy hit more than 12 homers. That's an Oriolesesque lack of power! The team stole 248 bases that year! That's insane. But anyhow, here's a trivia question (no cheating!)

In 1987, Coleman had 10 triples, but he didn't lead his team in that department. A certain teammate, who was 1 of the 2 STL guys with 100+ RBI that year, smacked 11 triples. Who was it?

Coleman was a decent player in '87, but still had an OPS+ of 91. Even accounting for the runs generated by his steals (about 20) he wasn't much more than an average offensive player. You have to remember that 1987 was the little offensive explosion - it was one of the highest homer/runs years between 1960 and 1995. That was the year Larry Sheets hit .300 with 30 homers.

Everyone concentrates on the 80s Cardinals basestealing and lack of power, but what set them apart was their OBP. In '87 they only hit 94 homers, dead last in the league, but they led the NL in OBP and finished 2nd in runs. In '86 they stole more bases than in '87 yet were last in the NL in both OBP and runs.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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My question is, did we win any games last yaer with those 80 stolen bases?

Haven't we gone over this repeatedly, in this very thread?

Did we win any games with Erik Bedard's Cy Young-caliber season? No, so why do we need Cy Young-caliber pitchers? Did we win any games with Nick Markakis' offense? No, so why would we miss him if he went away? There are valid arguments why the loss of these steals might be minimal, but this is a silly one.

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MP Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

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Without looking him up, I'll go with Willie McGee.

I'll give Coleman credit for 1987, it was his career season. But a career .324 OBP and .345 SLG for an outfielder is unacceptable.

Yep, good call with Willie. Ozzie was on that team too (he stole 40+). They had quite a year, took their speed and D to game 7 of the World Series vs the Twins, where leadoff man Coleman went 0-4 and struck out twice.

And I don't disagree about the thin-ice impact of a slapping speedster like Coleman. It's fun while it lasts but he's a stubbed toe away from being practically worthless in the lineup.

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ON BASE %

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Coleman was a decent player in '87, but still had an OPS+ of 91. Even accounting for the runs generated by his steals (about 20) he wasn't much more than an average offensive player. You have to remember that 1987 was the little offensive explosion - it was one of the highest homer/runs years between 1960 and 1995. That was the year Larry Sheets hit .300 with 30 homers.

Everyone concentrates on the 80s Cardinals basestealing and lack of power, but what set them apart was their OBP. In '87 they only hit 94 homers, dead last in the league, but they led the NL in OBP and finished 2nd in runs. In '86 they stole more bases than in '87 yet were last in the NL in both OBP and runs.

This is another reminder to never underestimate the importance of OBP. The value of stolen bases is insignificant next to the power of OBP. :cool:

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srock Veteran All-Star

srock

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This is another reminder to never underestimate the importance of OBP. The value of stolen bases is insignificant next to the power of OBP. :cool:

I don't think it is productive to compare the value of OBP to that of the stolen base. I believe the two are complementary.

I believe the relevant question to ask is:

How do stolen bases increase the value of OBP?

This is similar to the same way SLG% increases the value of OBP as it is more valuable to hit a double then a single. Well, a single is also more valuable if the player on first then steals 2nd.

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ON BASE % Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ON BASE %

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I don't think it is productive to compare the value of OBP to that of the stolen base. I believe the two are complementary.

I believe the relevant question to ask is:

How do stolen bases increase the value of OBP?

This is similar to the same way SLG% increases the value of OBP as it is more valuable to hit a double then a single. Well, a single is also more valuable if the player on first then steals 2nd.

Stolen bases only add value relative to the cost stealing percentage. IMO if the success rate is less than 75% stolen bases attempts are counterproductive.

Drungo pointed out that OBP was the most important variable to the Cardinals success or failure, not stolen bases or even home runs.

"In '87 they only hit 94 homers, dead last in the league, but they led the NL in OBP and finished 2nd in runs. In '86 they stole more bases than in '87 yet were last in the NL in both OBP and runs."

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Stolen bases only add value relative to the cost stealing percentage. IMO if the success rate is less than 75% stolen bases attempts are counterproductive.

That's a decent rule of thumb for today's offensive environment, but the break-even point varies by not only run context but game situation, too. Someone posted a good chart of stolen base break even points by base/out situation the other day.

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ON BASE % Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

ON BASE %

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That's a decent rule of thumb for today's offensive environment, but the break-even point varies by not only run context but game situation, too. Someone posted a good chart of stolen base break even points by base/out situation the other day.

Yes, that might be more of a general rule of thumb and not a catch-all. I'll have to check this out.

On another note I'm curious if there any such charts available regarding sacrifice bunts, which I generally do not approve of.

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