Are we going to miss the 80 stolen bases?

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there evidence that SBs are overvalued on the market? (I guess Juan Pierre proves the point all by himself.)

Since the league as a whole loses runs on the bases I'd say most dollars spent on base stealers are a poor investment. Pierre is a good case.

[Mackus]

Billy is all about increasing the chance of scoring runs.

A runner on first is worth something like .9 runs... however, if that runner is thrown out stealing, that number drops way down to like .25...

He entire theory is driven by increasing the chance of getting runners on and moving them around the bases with utilizing the highest percentage methods: hence, he does particularly go out of his way for power or stealing.

I think you missed the point of Moneyball. It isn't that OBP is the best way to score runs. Moneyball is about finding the most economically efficient way to score runs and prevent runs. HR and batting average and RBI are very expensive. Meaning, FAs with great numbers in those categories cost a lot. Whereas FAs with great OBP numbers and not so great numbers elsewhere, are disproportionately inexpensive when comparing they're overall offensive runs created. If two players both have a 7 RC/27, the guy with 15 HR, a .280 BA, 70 RBI, and a .390 OBP will be a much cheaper FA acquisition than the guy with the 28 HR, .310 BA, .370 OBP, and 110 RBI (all numbers completely made up).

The SB thing isn't that stealing is bad. Its that stealing at a low percentage is bad. You need to steal at about a 70-75% clip to be breaking even. If you are above that, you are helping your team, if you are below that, you are costing runs. How many runs in either direction depends on both the SB% and the number of SB attempts. If you steal a lot of bases at a high clip, you can be very beneficial. If you steal a lot of bases but also get caught a lot, you can be very detrimental.

A guy with 15 SB and 3 CS is helping his team a whole lot more over the entire season than a guy with 60 SB and 25 CS.

Here's something I threw together showing the "break even" percentage for stealing bases in each potential situation, based on Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix:

0outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.953	1.189	0.297	74%2nd	Steal 3rd	1.189	1.482	0.297	75%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	1.573	2.052	0.983	55%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	1.573	2.052	0.725	64%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	1.573	1.904	0.573	75%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	1.904	2.052	0.983	86%1outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.573	0.725	0.117	75%2nd	Steal 3rd	0.725	0.983	0.117	70%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	0.971	1.467	0.387	54%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	0.971	1.467	0.344	56%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	0.971	1.243	0.251	73%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	1.243	1.467	0.387	79%2outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.251	0.344	0	73%2nd	Steal 3rd	0.344	0.387	0	89%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	0.466	0.634	0	74%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	0.466	0.634	0	74%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	0.466	0.538	0	87%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	0.538	0.634	0	85% 

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there evidence that SBs are overvalued on the market? (I guess Juan Pierre proves the point all by himself.)

Another point is that power/speed guys are often thought of as far more valuable than a big, slow slugger. But someone with 30 homers, 30 steals, and 18 caught (all else being equal, which of course it never is) is going to be worth less than a guy with 30 homers, 0 steals and 0 caught.

[Tx Oriole]

Roberts will still be on the team OD. So you will get to see him swipe some bases. IMO

[mefogus]

A runner on first is worth something like .9 runs... however, if that runner is thrown out stealing, that number drops way down to like .25...

Wouldn't he be worth -.65 instead?

Just kidding, you are talking about run expectancies. But what I said and what Mackus has backed up still follows. You have to be successful with steals in order for them to increase your chances of scoring, but as Drungo mentioned, that costs a lot of money... hence, Moneyball principle #3.

-m

[MP]

I started by trying to correlate the swipes and the runs, but that was pretty much useless. After thinking about it, I would say that I don't care about stolen base numbers per say, but I wouldn't want a team with no speed threats. I'd say speed doesn't need to be constantly used to succeed (so it's not like you need X on the season to be successful), but I think certain moments in baseball games are won and lost by speed (or the lack of it).

[mefogus]

I started by trying to correlate the swipes and the runs, but that was pretty much useless. After thinking about it, I would say that I don't care about stolen base numbers per say, but I wouldn't want a team with no speed threats. I'd say speed doesn't need to be constantly used to succeed (so it's not like you need X on the season to be successful), but I think certain moments in baseball games are won and lost by speed (or the lack of it).

I can't imagine anyone arguing with you.

-m

[Baltimoron]

I started by trying to correlate the swipes and the runs, but that was pretty much useless. After thinking about it, I would say that I don't care about stolen base numbers per say, but I wouldn't want a team with no speed threats. I'd say speed doesn't need to be constantly used to succeed (so it's not like you need X on the season to be successful), but I think certain moments in baseball games are won and lost by speed (or the lack of it).

Like the dave roberts stolen base against the Yankees in the 04 playoffs.

Or when the next hitter is a LH who pulls lots of groundballs, and thus can leverage the hole on the right side.

That all said, these and similar considerations may magnify base stealing in certain situations, but in the aggregate SBs pale in comparison to the worth of 1) not making outs and 2) hitting the ball far.

[MP]

I can't imagine anyone arguing with you.

-m

I think I just found my new signature!

[olehippi]

I could care less how many RBI's Markakis has. RBI is a completely meaningless stat.

Well....I couldn't care less what you care less about.....but, if you play baseball for your high school team, the next time you strike out with runners in scoring position, and your team down by 1 run, tell me again how meaningless RBI stats are....

[MP]

That all said, these and similar considerations may magnify base stealing in certain situations, but in the aggregate SBs pale in comparison to the worth of 1) not making outs and 2) hitting the ball far.

That makes perfect sense to me.

[Todd-O]

I think you missed the point of Moneyball. It isn't that OBP is the best way to score runs. Moneyball is about finding the most economically efficient way to score runs and prevent runs. HR and batting average and RBI are very expensive. Meaning, FAs with great numbers in those categories cost a lot. Whereas FAs with great OBP numbers and not so great numbers elsewhere, are disproportionately inexpensive when comparing they're overall offensive runs created. If two players both have a 7 RC/27, the guy with 15 HR, a .280 BA, 70 RBI, and a .390 OBP will be a much cheaper FA acquisition than the guy with the 28 HR, .310 BA, .370 OBP, and 110 RBI (all numbers completely made up).

The SB thing isn't that stealing is bad. Its that stealing at a low percentage is bad. You need to steal at about a 70-75% clip to be breaking even. If you are above that, you are helping your team, if you are below that, you are costing runs. How many runs in either direction depends on both the SB% and the number of SB attempts. If you steal a lot of bases at a high clip, you can be very beneficial. If you steal a lot of bases but also get caught a lot, you can be very detrimental.

A guy with 15 SB and 3 CS is helping his team a whole lot more over the entire season than a guy with 60 SB and 25 CS.

Here's something I threw together showing the "break even" percentage for stealing bases in each potential situation, based on Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix:

0outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.953	1.189	0.297	74%2nd	Steal 3rd	1.189	1.482	0.297	75%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	1.573	2.052	0.983	55%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	1.573	2.052	0.725	64%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	1.573	1.904	0.573	75%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	1.904	2.052	0.983	86%1outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.573	0.725	0.117	75%2nd	Steal 3rd	0.725	0.983	0.117	70%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	0.971	1.467	0.387	54%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	0.971	1.467	0.344	56%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	0.971	1.243	0.251	73%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	1.243	1.467	0.387	79%2outs:	Situation	RE	RE_SB	RE_CS	BE%1st	Steal 2nd	0.251	0.344	0	73%2nd	Steal 3rd	0.344	0.387	0	89%1st_2nd	Throw to 2nd	0.466	0.634	0	74%1st_2nd	Throw to 3rd	0.466	0.634	0	74%1st_2nd	Lead Steal	0.466	0.538	0	87%1st_3rd	Trail Steal	0.538	0.634	0	85% 

That's an over simplification of Beane's philosophy... it's some of it, but I didn't miss the point... but he could careless about the big RBI guy because they are a product of what's around them. Since Beane drafts and trades his way to winning - rather than FAs - he doesn't really care about the market value of guys who have big numbers when they hit FA. Of course, that does effect his ability to retain them once they hit free agency... but his model doesn't exactly rely on retaining them.

Beane is about the stats that matter... and he crafts that into fitting into a low budget model.

The Orioles won't miss those SB numbers... they will adequately be able to replace them with better players... that put them in better situations to win... and, hence, allow their manager to put forth a much more effective offensive strategy.

[Lucky Jim]

That's an over simplification of Beane's philosophy... it's some of it, but I didn't miss the point... but he could careless about the big RBI guy because they are a product of what's around them. Since Beane drafts and trades his way to winning - rather than FAs - he doesn't really care about the market value of guys who have big numbers when they hit FA. Of course, that does effect his ability to retain them once they hit free agency... but his model doesn't exactly rely on retaining them.

Beane is about the stats that matter... and he crafts that into fitting into a low budget model.

The Orioles won't miss those SB numbers... they will adequately be able to replace them with better players... that put them in better situations to win... and, hence, allow their manager to put forth a much more effective offensive strategy.

You imply that market value doesn't have an effect on trades or drafting. I think Mackus's point is, in fact, the bigger-picture account of Moneyball.

[Optimum O]

Don't you have to know who is replacing them to answer that question?

Sure but rest assured it won't be a 25 year old Vince Coleman, Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson!

[ON BASE %]

Sure but rest assured it won't be a 25 year old Vince Coleman, Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson!

Sure, I'll take a Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson. As for Vince Coleman, he was overrated. I wouldn't want someone with that offensive profile starting in the Orioles outfield.