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I don't care what anyone says, 100 saves in two years is impressive


Frobby

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The need to make Johnson "the" reason we didn't win is ridiculous. He underachieved this year, as did several other players. And we had some that overachieved, though not as many. The need to affix "blame" is silly. We weren't good enough as a team this year. Obviously guys who underachived like JJ and Markakis will get fingers pointed at them, but the bottom line is that our team did not perform well enough.

That being said, I think it is a very legitimate debate as to whether Johnson is worth what we will have to pay him in arbitration this year. I'd like to be able to have that debate without the hyperbole about whether the season is "his fault" or not.

There are a lot of legitimate questions that can be asked that make such a debate interesting:

1) Given that Buck is apparently a strong believer and adherent in the "save rule"... we are going to have a designated Closer with a capital C next year who will get the bulk of the save situations. If not Johnson, what are the alternatives?

2) Blindly looking at the save total ignores the fact that Johnson was a BELOW AVERAGE closer this year. His WPA shows that; the breakdown I did about a month ago showing each type of save situation he came into, and what % of those we won compared to the win probability for those situations, also shows that.

3) Going forward, is Johnson more likely to be the 2012 JJ, who was one of the top 4 or 5 closers in baseball, the 2013 JJ, who was a below average closer, or somewhere in between? Is it even possible to predict?

4) Is there a confidence aspect in Johnson's pitching? It certainly appeared to me this year that if he got ahead of the first batter with pitches down in the zone, and retired that batter, he typically had a good outing. If he failed to do so, and fell behind the first batter and the batter reached... it was going to be a bad outing. A very bad one. Not only did he often blow the save and give up the lead, he often gave up subsequent runs so that we lost the game that inning, rather than limiting the damage to letting the game get tied. Is there a psychological aspect to JJ's blown saves, or can they all be explained by other tangible reasons?

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2) Blindly looking at the save total ignores the fact that Johnson was a BELOW AVERAGE closer this year. His WPA shows that; the breakdown I did about a month ago showing each type of save situation he came into, and what % of those we won compared to the win probability for those situations, also shows that.

I had to search for the breakdown you did before; it turns out you posted it the day JJ blew his 3rd consective save of our West Coast road trip. After that date, JJ saved 10 in a row to close the season, so the breakdown would look a lot better now than it did then. Also, I heard on MASN the other day that the average success rate on one-run saves was 76% last year and 77% this year, which is lower than the probabilities you used. I had done a study of the closers back in 2011 that concluded the success rate was 75% for that season. So, I'm not sure why, but your 80-85% number seems off. (The numbers you used for 2- and 3-run saves are very close to what I had found in 2011.)

I don't think making these adjustments would change your conclusion, it just wouldn't be as strong.

I do wonder, however, whether there's a reasonable argumemt that an 85% save rate in 59 opportunities is a more impressive feat than having an 85% save rate in, say, 35-40 opportunities. Closing is pretty pressure-packed, and being asked to do it 59 times in a year creates a lot of cumulative stress. I'm just raising the question, not stating as a fact that the closer should get "credit" for having a lot of opportunities.

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Yeah, i saw that, but it kind of obscures the fact that JJ blew 3 one year and 9 the other. 12 blown saves in 113 chances is very good, but 9 in 59 is slightly below average for a closer.

Johnson said as much in the interview. He thought his 2012 season was better than one would expect from him, and 2013 was worse.

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Johnson said as much in the interview. He thought his 2012 season was better than one would expect from him, and 2013 was worse.

Of course, if JJ had blown 6 in each year, we might have missed the playoffs both times.

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The save is one of if not the most over rated stat in baseball. Furthermore, skip cost us our chance at the playoffs by putting Johnson out there against Arizona. That was the real moment that showed me why all of Bucks old teams were so glad to have him go and they won right after he left.

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The save is one of if not the most over rated stat in baseball. Furthermore, skip cost us our chance at the playoffs by putting Johnson out there against Arizona. That was the real moment that showed me why all of Bucks old teams were so glad to have him go and they won right after he left.

:bs:

Read the book by Derek Jeter, he wasn't happy that Buck left, he understood the power struggle between George and Buck, and respected Buck, but that didnt make him happy about it.

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In this case. If we'd won the wild card by 5 games last year and lost by 2 this year, it would be the opposite.

We can play the damn what if game all day long.

If our starters had pitched better.

If Buck managed better

If the offense didnt go to sleep for long periods of time.

If the full moon came out on Tuesday, instead of Monday.

Bottom line, they were a good team, and just not quite good enough to get into the playoffs.

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The save is one of if not the most over rated stat in baseball. Furthermore, skip cost us our chance at the playoffs by putting Johnson out there against Arizona. That was the real moment that showed me why all of Bucks old teams were so glad to have him go and they won right after he left.

Yea, if Buck had just used that reliever he'd stashed away in the corner of the bullpen who never blew any saves the O's would have won like 100 games. Stupid manager using stupid relievers who allow runs.

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