Roch: Feldman Could Return But Hammel & McLouth Probably Won't

[weams]

The fact that you're perfectly content with never spending over $5 million on a player is ridiculous. WE ARE NOT GOING TO WIN THAT WAY. Its not like I'm asking for them to give Cano $20 million. A $12-15 million contract will not cripple the franchise and it'd be stupid for them not to explore that option when it fills a glaring need.

Orioles apologists are the worst.

There are plenty of players that I feel are worth more than 5 million. Davis, Jones, Hardy amongst them.

[weams]

The fact that you're perfectly content with never spending over $5 million on a player is ridiculous. WE ARE NOT GOING TO WIN THAT WAY. Its not like I'm asking for them to give Cano $20 million. A $12-15 million contract will not cripple the franchise and it'd be stupid for them not to explore that option when it fills a glaring need.

Orioles apologists are the worst.

I am not a fan of "show" contracts. I want them to approach the actual value.

[waroriole]

You need to. Find someone in the 50 million dollar contract range. That does not require a pick to be sacrificed.

They gave up a pick for Norris. I'd hope a pick for Choo wouldn't be an issue.

[weams]

They gave up a pick for Norris. I'd hope a pick for Choo wouldn't be an issue.

I guess it wouldn't be. But man. Picks are so valuable. I still believe someone will way overpay for Choo. In money. And years.

[waroriole]

I guess it wouldn't be. But man. Picks are so valuable. I still believe someone will way overpay for Choo. In money. And years.

They may, but we have different opinions on what would be an overpay. I'd give Choo 5/80. I think adding his OBP in front of Jones and Davis would put up a lot of runs. It might be a less than desirable contract the last year or two, but nothing too terrible. I think he'll be worth his contract over the life of it.

Losing the pick would be tough, especially after losing one for Bud, but we could also look to sign a comparable talent in the Int'l Market, instead of giving our slots away.

[weams]

They may, but we have different opinions on what would be an overpay. I'd give Choo 5/80. I think adding his OBP in front of Jones and Davis would put up a lot of runs. It might be a less than desirable contract the last year or two, but nothing too terrible. I think he'll be worth his contract over the life of it.

I respect your opinions. I just would be astounded if Choo were worth that much. But, he could be. I'll give you that.

[hoosiers]

I guess it wouldn't be. But man. Picks are so valuable. I still believe someone will way overpay for Choo. In money. And years.

Hard to believe the these two posts could be back to back:

The Os gave up a pick for Bud Norris.

Picks are valuable.

Perhaps I sail alone in the crusade that our GM's deals from the trade deadline to the end of the season were awful.

[Ruzious]

Regarding the Nationals, if hating them is wrong...I don't want to be right.

So your comments about the MASN money might be just a tad biased?

[Can_of_corn]

Hard to believe the these two posts could be back to back:

The Os gave up a pick for Bud Norris.

Picks are valuable.

Perhaps I sail alone in the crusade that our GM's deals from the trade deadline to the end of the season were awful.

I didn't care about losing Avery for nothing.

The Feldman trade was pretty decent.

I wasn't pleased with the K-Rod trade.

Giving up the Draft pick really bugged me in the Norris trade.

[DrungoHazewood]

I guess it wouldn't be. But man. Picks are so valuable. I still believe someone will way overpay for Choo. In money. And years.

Picks are valuable. They shouldn't be discarded for nothing, they shouldn't be tossed in as a sweetener for a player who'll get you an extra fraction of a win down the stretch run.

But at the same time they need to be properly valued. A 35th overall pick has an average value of a maybe a win, two wins tops. So $5-10M. Basically one full season of a league-average player, or a good reliever. One year of Ryan Flaherty this season was one win. Tommy Hunter or Miguel Gonzalez, roughly two.

[Can_of_corn]

Picks are valuable. They shouldn't be discarded for nothing, they shouldn't be tossed in as a sweetener for a player who'll get you an extra fraction of a win down the stretch run.

But at the same time they need to be properly valued. A 35th overall pick has an average value of a maybe a win, two wins tops. So $5-10M. Basically one full season of a league-average player, or a good reliever. One year of Ryan Flaherty this season was one win. Tommy Hunter or Miguel Gonzalez, roughly two.

All true.

How much is the #22 pick worth?

How much more then that is Hunter Harvey worth right now?

In most cases I am willing to roll the dice with the promise of six years of team control at reasonable prices.

[DrungoHazewood]

All true.

How much is the #22 pick worth?

How much more then that is Hunter Harvey worth right now?

In most cases I am willing to roll the dice with the promise of six years of team control at reasonable prices.

I'm sure the #22 pick is worth a bit more than 2 wins. The curve is mostly an exponential decline from #1 overall, around a win or so once you get much beyond the 1st round.

But yes, the distribution inside picks is like that, too. Any single pick will have a handful of MLB stars and regulars and a bunch of zeros. Trading a package of probabilities like that is a risk, but one you shouldn't shy away from trading if the return is right.

Once in a while you'll get bit, sometimes badly, but if Bud Norris pitches up to his last few years (which isn't great) he'll be more than worth the average value of a comp pick. My issues in the past were mainly that the O's had no other sources of talent than the draft, so trading a pick was almost suicidal. Duquette seems more likely to go other places like international free agency which can make up for a lost pick.

[webbrick2010]

Hard to believe the these two posts could be back to back:

The Os gave up a pick for Bud Norris.

Picks are valuable.

Perhaps I sail alone in the crusade that our GM's deals from the trade deadline to the end of the season were awful.

You are not alone... I believe that DD was fleeced in every deal

The Cubs got a their 2014 #5 starter and closer for our 3 month rental of Feldman. Arietta and Strop in 2013 had more WAR for the Cubs than Feldman did for the O's.

The Brewers got a prospect for a 3 month rental of a bullpen arm that Buck didn't trust to use.

The Mariners got a 23 yo AAA outfileder for 20+ at bats of Michael Morse.

And the big loser the Astros got their starting left fielder , a top prospect, and a sandwich pick for a bullpen arm that will cost the O's 5 million in arbitration.

[Can_of_corn]

You are not alone... I believe that DD was fleeced in every deal

The Cubs got a their 2014 #5 starter and closer for our 3 month rental of Feldman. Arietta and Strop in 2013 had more WAR for the Cubs than Feldman did for the O's.

The Brewers got a prospect for a 3 month rental of a bullpen arm that Buck didn't trust to use.

The Mariners got a 23 yo AAA outfileder for 20+ at bats of Michael Morse.

And the big loser the Astros got their starting left fielder , a top prospect, and a sandwich pick for a bullpen arm that will cost the O's 5 million in arbitration.

Did you want Pedro to keep appearing in games? If not you can't complain about him being traded away, he was out of options.

Avery is not a MLB player, pure and simple. The only thing the Mariners got in that team was some salary relief.

Hader is not a "top prospect" and Hoes is not a starting left fielder on a good team.

[webbrick2010]

Did you want Pedro to keep appearing in games? If not you can't complain about him being traded away, he was out of options.

Avery is not a MLB player, pure and simple. The only thing the Mariners got in that team was some salary relief.

Hader is not a "top prospect" and Hoes is not a starting left fielder on a good team.

Hoes will have a higher OPS than Nate McClouth next year

Orioles 2013 BA Prospect Ranking:

1. Dylan Bundy, rhp

2. Kevin Gausman, rhp

3. Jonathan Schoop, 2b/ss

4. Nicky Delmonico, 1b/2b 5. Eduardo Rodriguez, lhp

6. L.J. Hoes, of

7. Xavier Avery, of

8. Mike Wright, rhp

9. Branden Kline, rhp

10. Adrian Marin, s

DD had his clock cleaned... and now with nothing left to trade in the offseason... we will once again throw money at middling free agent and reclamation projects.