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Roch: Feldman Could Return But Hammel & McLouth Probably Won't

Brendan25

By Brendan25
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
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Hoes will have a higher OPS than Nate McClouth next year

Orioles 2013 BA Prospect Ranking:

1. Dylan Bundy, rhp

2. Kevin Gausman, rhp

3. Jonathan Schoop, 2b/ss

4. Nicky Delmonico, 1b/2b 5. Eduardo Rodriguez, lhp

6. L.J. Hoes, of

7. Xavier Avery, of

8. Mike Wright, rhp

9. Branden Kline, rhp

10. Adrian Marin, s

DD had his clock cleaned... and now with nothing left to trade in the offseason... we will once again throw money at middling free agent and reclamation projects.

Four, Six and Seven on the O's prospect list does not make, in most seasons, someone a "top prospect". Delmonico has some significant hurdles to overcome.

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webbrick2010 Hangout Veteran Council

webbrick2010

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Did you want Pedro to keep appearing in games? If not you can't complain about him being traded away, he was out of options.

Avery is not a MLB player, pure and simple. The only thing the Mariners got in that team was some salary relief.

Hader is not a "top prospect" and Hoes is not a starting left fielder on a good team.

Hader is rated as the Astro's #11 prospect by MLB.com.

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webbrick2010 Hangout Veteran Council

webbrick2010

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You sure have an odd definition of "top".

I like Hader. I didn't like the Norris trade but 11 isn't "top". Odds are good he never gets into a game as a major leaguer.

He is 20 years old... I think 11 is way more than you give up for a bull pen arm like Bud Norris.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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You are not alone... I believe that DD was fleeced in every deal

If you count trading a quarter and getting two dimes as "fleeced" you might be right.

The Cubs got a their 2014 #5 starter and closer for our 3 month rental of Feldman. Arietta and Strop in 2013 had more WAR for the Cubs than Feldman did for the O's.

What would you have done with Arrieta and Strop? Arrieta had been given more chances than Earl's first wife and had an ERA over 7.00. Strop (in WPA) was three WINS worse than he was last year in 22 innings. He was a total metdown debacle, who I'd argue was more responsible for the bullpen's failures than Johnson.

The Brewers got a prospect for a 3 month rental of a bullpen arm that Buck didn't trust to use.

This one didn't end up well. But let's not pretend the prospect was on anyone's top 100 or anywhere close.

The Mariners got a 23 yo AAA outfileder for 20+ at bats of Michael Morse.

A 23-year-old AAA outfielder who had been demoted to AA because he couldn't hit or field or run the bases. Over his career he's struck out once per game while homering once per 27 games.

And the big loser the Astros got their starting left fielder , a top prospect, and a sandwich pick for a bullpen arm that will cost the O's 5 million in arbitration.

That is true if you ignore half of the evidence. Hoes may be a starting left fielder. On a 111-loss team. The top prospect you mention is at least several years from getting a callup if everything goes right, and walked almost five per nine in low A this year. And Bud Norris will probably get $5M in arb, but he's been worth almost 2 wins per year over the last couple years and replacing that production in free agency would cost the O's nearly $10M.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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He is 20 years old... I think 11 is way more than you give up for a bull pen arm like Bud Norris.

That trade is not without risk, but of course characterizing Norris as a bullpen arm is probably an exaggeration, and a #11 prospect in the Orioles system is a fairly long shot to have any kind of productive MLB career.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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All true.

How much is the #22 pick worth?

How much more then that is Hunter Harvey worth right now?

In most cases I am willing to roll the dice with the promise of six years of team control at reasonable prices.

Of course, we didn't give up the no. 22 pick in the Norris deal. That pick is in the 30's somewhere, where the Josh Hart's of the world get picked, right?

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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I didn't care about losing Avery for nothing.

The Feldman trade was pretty decent.

I wasn't pleased with the K-Rod trade.

Giving up the Draft pick really bugged me in the Norris trade.

I agree with your thoughts, but Norris is a pretty good pitcher and was better than what we was running out there.

You can't always get gems for trash.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I agree with your thoughts, but Norris is a pretty good pitcher and was better than what we was running out there.

You can't always get gems for trash.

Remember the context. Webbrick thought the O's should start selling off pieces and auditioning potential 2014 players sometime in early summer. He was going to have issues with any trade made for the 2013 stretch run.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Giving up draft picks always scares me, but that said, the O's don't have a great string of success in developing our own "superstars" in the past 20-30 years, so I'm not sure just HOW valuable picks are to this organization.

I think draft picks have the same value no matter the organization. If you convince yourself that draft picks are almost meaningless because the O's have had a bad track record in developing them you quickly get into a death spiral. If anything lack of success in developing prospects means you should stockpile picks because of the lower success rate.

The Orioles simply can't exist in a world where their draft picks rarely pay off.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Of course, we didn't give up the no. 22 pick in the Norris deal. That pick is in the 30's somewhere, where the Josh Hart's of the world get picked, right?

That wasn't the point I was making. In fact that was why I asked the value of the #22 pick.

The value of the 22 pick last summer is significantly lower then the value of Harvey, the players picked with the 22nd selection.

The numbers Drungo uses to assign value to draft picks are useful but...

1- If you have a good scout and development team your results will outperform that number

2- I think that as scouting improves that number will increase as less complete misses will occur in the first couple rounds.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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That wasn't the point I was making. In fact that was why I asked the value of the #22 pick.

The value of the 22 pick last summer is significantly lower then the value of Harvey, the players picked with the 22nd selection.

The numbers Drungo uses to assign value to draft picks are useful but...

1- If you have a good scout and development team your results will outperform that number

2- I think that as scouting improves that number will increase as less complete misses will occur in the first couple rounds.

If you replace "will" with something like "somewhat decrease the odds of failure" I'll agree.

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