MacPhail On XM

[Boston Dave]

Die hard fan, 30 yrs plus, I have never been closer to calling it quits- this interview is but the latest motivator. This is an organization devoid of any kind of foresight, leadership, or- here I go- a "process" to get from point (a) to point (b). It's just the same old..., different year.

Boy, L-Her and Fahey battling it out...golly, sign me up for those Airtran flights home. Pathetic.

[SilentJames]

Couple of notes from the interview:

2. He has only made one trade recommendation to Angelos - that being the Tejada trade. When one comes along, Angelos, being the owner, will always have the right to veto it, but AM doesn't expect that to happen.

This is perfectly reasonable.

Seriously all owners will be involved in some way shape or form, the only x-factor is how much. Is the owner a rubber stamp? Is he a consultant? Is he Caesar?

The fact that he has to at least run things by Angelos is not an issue - that is expected in 90% of the situations, especially when big name face-of-the org type players are in the mix.

It is what happens at that meeting that is in question.

I think the Chicago reports are erroneous - falling back on a blame Angelos scapegoat.

[allstar1579]

Interesting... this would contradict what Roch mentioned about the rumors of Angelos nixing a Roberts deal per Cubs sources

I just spit my coffee all over my monitor

That's because ANYTIME a trade doesn't go through as speculated we are going to assume it's because PA nixed it. It's Pavlov's conditioning.

Speaking of which, does anyone actually remember the return for Bonilla et al. that he nixed in the very first round of vetos?

[El Gordo]

So it's Hernandez or Fahey? What about Bynum? Heck the guy should at least get a shot. He's the Albert Pujols of that group of players...

If you mean the best defender at the position like Pujols is then no he's not, if you mean a guy who might give you .650+ OPS over Fahey's .600+ or LH's .550+ the perhaps. But he sure isn't the best glove. But what the hay, we all know defense doesn't really count all that much. Heck, when Huff recovers from his hernia he'd be great at SS, maybe .800 OPS.

[Baltimoron]

If you mean the best defender at the position like Pujols is then no he's not, if you mean a guy who might give you .650+ OPS over Fahey's .600+ or LH's .550+ the perhaps. But he sure isn't the best glove. But what the hay, we all know defense doesn't really count all that much. Heck, when Huff recovers from his hernia he'd be great at SS, maybe .800 OPS.

Quick:

1) Is the spread in production on defense more or less great than the spread in production on offense?

2) Given your answer to #1, you should be able to tell us which comprises a greater portion the total value of positional players: offense or defense? Care to take a stab at the relative percentages?

3) Thus you can also answer the question which would you rather have, "an average hitter who is a great defender, or a great hitter who is an average defender?, and we also know that based on the answer to the second question, that your answer to question 3 could correctly include the statement "and it isn't even close."

[JTrea81]

If you mean the best defender at the position like Pujols is then no he's not, if you mean a guy who might give you .650+ OPS over Fahey's .600+ or LH's .550+ the perhaps. But he sure isn't the best glove. But what the hay, we all know defense doesn't really count all that much. Heck, when Huff recovers from his hernia he'd be great at SS, maybe .800 OPS.

Let's not start another LH thread and just agree to disagree. I've seen way too many LH threads this offseason...

[Dipper9]

Ugh I don't know what is more depressing about the statement, the fact that Hernandez is the favorite or that Fahey is suppose to provide competition. That's like asking if rather be punched in the left eye or right eye. Neither option is good.

You would think this would be cause to get a few more deals done so we could do something, but unfortunately the FO moves at the speed of a glaicer!

And with the Orioles, while you're deciding which eye to gte punched in, MacPhail will kick you in the jimmy!

[Dipper9]

That's because ANYTIME a trade doesn't go through as speculated we are going to assume it's because PA nixed it. It's Pavlov's conditioning.

Speaking of which, does anyone actually remember the return for Bonilla et al. that he nixed in the very first round of vetos?

It doesn't matter. The Orioles were built to win now in 96, and while the OWNER should not have been the one vetoing the deals, the GM should have never wanted to trade them to begin with, regardless of what those players have gone on to do. The wire to wire 97 team proves that THAT O's team was great. It was the firing of Gilick and Johnson after 97 that was the beginning of the end of the Orioles, NOT the nixing of the Bonilla and Wells trades!

[El Gordo]

Quick:

1) Is the spread in production on defense more or less great than the spread in production on offense?

2) Given your answer to #1, you should be able to tell us which comprises a greater portion the total value of positional players: offense or defense? Care to take a stab at the relative percentages?

3) Thus you can also answer the question which would you rather have, "an average hitter who is a great defender, or a great hitter who is an average defender?, and we also know that based on the answer to the second question, that your answer to question 3 could correctly include the statement "and it isn't even close."

The only defensive quantification system that I ahave some faith in is the Fielding Bible and since I don't own a copy I can't answer # 1 and therefore can't participate in your little game. However I can take a guess that the range of 100 points in OPS btween the three would amount to about 20 runs and the and the defensive difference would be about the same if you regard Bynum as an average defender. And I don't.

[Dipper9]

If you mean the best defender at the position like Pujols is then no he's not, if you mean a guy who might give you .650+ OPS over Fahey's .600+ or LH's .550+ the perhaps. But he sure isn't the best glove. But what the hay, we all know defense doesn't really count all that much. Heck, when Huff recovers from his hernia he'd be great at SS, maybe .800 OPS.

Barring any more trades, I'd move Mora to short and Moore starts at third. But that's just me.

[Jagwar]

Actually it would seem to confirm what he said.

per Roch:

I’m told there are reports coming out of Chicago that Orioles owner Peter Angelos vetoed a trade that would have sent Brian Roberts to the Cubs. But everyone I’ve spoken with who would know say that’s nonsense.

I think we are saying the same thing. I meant that the Cubs sources said Angelos vetoed the trade, Roch said that was nonsense

[DuffMan]

And with the Orioles, while you're deciding which eye to gte punched in, MacPhail will kick you in the jimmy!

I think the question is would you rather get kicked in the junk or sit through an entire game the way the team is currently constructed. I know an O's game lasts about 3 hours how long would the kick hurt ya......

[Baltimoron]

The only defensive quantification system that I ahave some faith in is the Fielding Bible and since I don't own a copy I can't answer # 1 and therefore can't participate in your little game. However I can take a guess that the range of 100 points in OPS btween the three would amount to about 20 runs and the and the defensive difference would be about the same if you regard Bynum as an average defender. And I don't.

I'm trying to help you get a sense of "how much defense counts."

You don't need a copy of the fielding bible, go here

<img src=http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-07.gif>

A play saved is worth .8 runs. Here or here

So the best defenders in baseball last year as compared to average at his position was Pujols last year, at @ +30 runs. The worst, Ryan Braun, was around -33 runs.

So the defensive range is about 60 runs.

For offense, go here to the leaderboards at fangraphs, in the win probability tab for hitters, and sort by "BRAA", or batting runs above average.

The best hitter in 2007 was Arod at + 82, while the worst was Nick Punto at -32. That is a spread of over 120, or double that of fielding, and there are some thirty hitters whose offense was more productive than the defensive production of the most productive defender, Pujols.

This should make some sense as the pitcher contributes a lot more to run prevention than the defense does, while offense is just the hitters.

The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value.

[El Gordo]

Barring any more trades, I'd move Mora to short and Moore starts at third. But that's just me.

Good grief!

[Mackus]

The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value.

This is key. Just like when evaluating offense, OBP is more important than SLG, when evaluating an overall player, offense is more important than defense.

How much moreso (for both examples) is certainly debateable, but I don't think the general premise is.