MacPhail On XM

[Frobby]

This is key. Just like when evaluating offense, OBP is more important than SLG, when evaluating an overall player, offense is more important than defense.

How much moreso (for both examples) is certainly debateable, but I don't think the general premise is.

Don't let RShack read this.

[El Gordo]

I'm trying to help you get a sense of "how much defense counts."

You don't need a copy of the fielding bible, go here

<img src=http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-07.gif>

A play saved is worth .8 runs. Here or here

So the best defenders in baseball last year as compared to average at his position was Pujols last year, at @ +30 runs. The worst, Ryan Braun, was around -33 runs.

So the defensive range is about 60 runs.

For offense, go here to the leaderboards at fangraphs, in the win probability tab for hitters, and sort by "BRAA", or batting runs above average.

The best hitter in 2007 was Arod at + 82, while the worst was Nick Punto at -32. That is a spread of over 120, or double that of fielding, and there are some thirty hitters whose offense was more productive than the defensive production of the most productive defender, Pujols.

This should make some sense as the pitcher contributes a lot more to run prevention than the defense does, while offense is just the hitters.

The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value.

I would seen to me that the simple answer is that defense is worth about 80% of offense. So while not as important, it certainly shouldn't be dismissed as it fequently is IMO. Your charts and grafs tell me nothing about Bynum, Fahey, and LH's relative merits, defensively and offensively.

[PoorMike]

I listened to the replay of the AM interview (I wasn't able to catch it this morning). Here are the questions that were asked and how they were answered (to the best of my recollection):

XM: Frank Wren took over the Braves but was already in the organization. You took over but came in from outside. What's that been like?

AM: I had to spend a lot of time learning and asking questions. Not only did I have to learn about our players but I had to get used to the style of the people I'd be working with. I had to know whether a scout graded hard or easy so I could handicap it, for example.

XM: So after watching and listening, do you think that patience is important when tacking issues?

AM: Yes. I think that after a while, the solutions become somewhat obvious......(didn't get the rest of this response)

XM: What things about Peter Angelos let you know that he'd be somebody that you'd like to work with?

AM: I worked with Peter extensively in the CBA negotiations in both 2002 and 2006. He's a man of integrity and he's true to his word. When he says he's going to do something, he does it. Plus, my father was GM of this organization and I spent a good part of my childhood here within walking distance of memorial stadium. I love the area and it has alot of potential, but we need to get some things straightened out so we can compete with the well financed teams up north.

XM: Has PA been onboard with your moves so far?

AM: Well, I've only presented him with one trade proposal and that was the Tejada deal. In every organization I've been in, there are times when it's appropriate for ownership to excercise it's judgement.

XM: Do you believe that BR and EB will be here are the start of Spring Training.

AM: I don't know. I only control half of that situation.....(I missed some of the rest but he did say something about the fact that BR's value to the community here is part of the reason why he's so appealing to other clubs).

XM: Talk about Rick Kranitz and what he brings.

AM: Well, Rick won the first Baseball America (I think he said BA) coach of the year award back in 2006 for his good work with Florida's young pitching......(I missed the rest).

XM: Talk a little about your SS situation.

AM: We have Luis Hernandez who is a great defensive SS and this past year pleasantly suprised us with his offensive production. We also have Brandon Fahey who is a defensive minded shortstop and Freddie Bynum, who is more of an offensive threat but is less defensively accomplished than the other two. We will continue to look outside the organization for help there as we really want someone to compete with LH for the job. We just don't want to give it to him.

XM: Lastly, have you ever solved the problems that you've been having with your color analyst position? (Mark Patrick posed this while Buck was listening)

AM: Well, that has been a problem and hopefully they'll get better but no matter how much we try to get convince fans that our broadcasters are responsible for all troubles, they don't seem to by it.

BM: Well, I'll try to sharpen up but I don't have much time before spring training.

AM: Hey, we might need you to catch.

[Baltimoron]

I would seen to me that the simple answer is that defense is worth about 80% of offense. So while not as important, it certainly shouldn't be dismessed as it fequently is IMO. Your charts and grafs tell me nothing about Bynum, Fahey, and LH's relative merits, defensively and offensively.

I agree wholeheartedly with the bold.

Regarding the last statement, please stop the persecution complex. My post said noting about the respective value of any of these three players.

Perhaps if you were not so quick to mistakenly attribute a motive to those who respond to you, you would not get all worked up over nonexistent ideas and arguments.

[StunninSteve]

I listened to the replay of the AM interview (I wasn't able to catch it this morning). Here are the questions that were asked and how they were answered (to the best of my recollection):

XM: Frank Wren took over the Braves but was already in the organization. You took over but came in from outside. What's that been like?

AM: I had to spend a lot of time learning and asking questions. Not only did I have to learn about our players but I had to get used to the style of the people I'd be working with. I had to know whether a scout graded hard or easy so I could handicap it, for example.

XM: So after watching and listening, do you think that patience is important when tacking issues?

AM: Yes. I think that after a while, the solutions become somewhat obvious......(didn't get the rest of this response)

XM: What things about Peter Angelos let you know that he'd be somebody that you'd like to work with?

AM: I worked with Peter extensively in the CBA negotiations in both 2002 and 2006. He's a man of integrity and he's true to his word. When he says he's going to do something, he does it. Plus, my father was GM of this organization and I spent a good part of my childhood here within walking distance of memorial stadium. I love the area and it has alot of potential, but we need to get some things straightened out so we can compete with the well financed teams up north.

XM: Has PA been onboard with your moves so far?

AM: Well, I've only presented him with one trade proposal and that was the Tejada deal. In every organization I've been in, there are times when it's appropriate for ownership to excercise it's judgement.

XM: Do you believe that BR and EB will be here are the start of Spring Training.

AM: I don't know. I only control half of that situation.....(I missed some of the rest but he did say something about the fact that BR's value to the community here is part of the reason why he's so appealing to other clubs).

XM: Talk about Rick Kranitz and what he brings.

AM: Well, Rick won the first Baseball America (I think he said BA) coach of the year award back in 2006 for his good work with Florida's young pitching......(I missed the rest).

XM: Talk a little about your SS situation.

AM: We have Luis Hernandez who is a great defensive SS and this past year pleasantly suprised us with his offensive production. We also have Brandon Fahey who is a defensive minded shortstop and Freddie Bynum, who is more of an offensive threat but is less defensively accomplished than the other two. We will continue to look outside the organization for help there as we really want someone to compete with LH for the job. We just don't want to give it to him.

XM: Lastly, have you ever solved the problems that you've been having with your color analyst position? (Mark Patrick posed this while Buck was listening)

AM: Well, that has been a problem and hopefully they'll get better but no matter how much we try to get convince fans that our broadcasters are responsible for all troubles, they don't seem to by it.

BM: Well, I'll try to sharpen up but I don't have much time before spring training.

AM: Hey, we might need you to catch.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bynum an offensive threat. Good one!

[PoorMike]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bynum an offensive threat. Good one!

He's really just trying to be nice. Plus. he's probably including 'speed' as an offensive skill. I got the impression that he really prefers not to have any of them be the OD ss.

You have to emphasize the positives for your own guys, but you could tell he wasn't deluded.

[allstar1579]

I'm trying to help you get a sense of "how much defense counts."

You don't need a copy of the fielding bible, go here

<img src=http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-07.gif>

A play saved is worth .8 runs. Here or here

So the best defenders in baseball last year as compared to average at his position was Pujols last year, at @ +30 runs. The worst, Ryan Braun, was around -33 runs.

So the defensive range is about 60 runs.

For offense, go here to the leaderboards at fangraphs, in the win probability tab for hitters, and sort by "BRAA", or batting runs above average.

The best hitter in 2007 was Arod at + 82, while the worst was Nick Punto at -32. That is a spread of over 120, or double that of fielding, and there are some thirty hitters whose offense was more productive than the defensive production of the most productive defender, Pujols.

This should make some sense as the pitcher contributes a lot more to run prevention than the defense does, while offense is just the hitters.

The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value.

This list makes me sad for the 2000 draft when we took Beau Hale with 14 and Chase Utley went to Phi at 15. And then again in 2001 when we passed on Casey Kotchman once and David freaking Wright not once but TWICE in the same draft.

We shouldn't be mad at the F.O. for the past few years, it should be the scouting department. Without signing any of those potential free agent targets, we could be a MUCH better team had we just drafted better....<sigh>.

[Migrant Redbird]

A play saved is worth .8 runs. Here or here

That seems kind of high. I'll have to review the links you posted.

From the fielding bible.

A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average. Adam Everett turned in the highest score we’ve had in four years of using the system with a +43 at shortstop in 2006. That means he made 43 more plays than the average MLB shortstop would make.

I think that if you were going to convert "missed plays" directly into "runs scored" as a result, you'd need to consider the differences between the types of missed plays which are more likely to occur at each position. There's a lot of difference between a missed pop foul near the dugout and a missed line drive into the right field corner. Maybe the differences will average out, but I'd like to see some more analysis before accepting that conclusion. Tangotiger's explanation is kind of a high level approach.

So the best defenders in baseball last year as compared to average at his position was Pujols last year, at @ +30 runs. The worst, Ryan Braun, was around -33 runs.

So the defensive range is about 60 runs.

.... The best hitter in 2007 was Arod at + 82, while the worst was Nick Punto at -32. That is a spread of over 120, or double that of fielding, and there are some thirty hitters whose offense was more productive than the defensive production of the most productive defender, Pujols.

This should make some sense as the pitcher contributes a lot more to run prevention than the defense does, while offense is just the hitters.

The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value.

Agreed, and I appreciate your analysis. I just need to do some more homework before I fully agree with it.

[Migrant Redbird]

We shouldn't be mad at the F.O. for the past few years, it should be the scouting department. Without signing any of those potential free agent targets, we could be a MUCH better team had we just drafted better....<sigh>.

The scouting department makes the draft picks? I was under the impression that the front office assesses the scouting reports and uses that information and prospective signability to rank their drafting priorities. If the scouting department isn't providing good enough scouting reports, that's still a problem for the front office to fix.

Per the interview with McPhail,

XM: Frank Wren took over the Braves but was already in the organization. You took over but came in from outside. What's that been like?

AM: I had to spend a lot of time learning and asking questions. Not only did I have to learn about our players but I had to get used to the style of the people I'd be working with. I had to know whether a scout graded hard or easy so I could handicap it, for example.

[bandy75]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Bynum an offensive threat. Good one!

AM: We have Luis Hernandez who is a great defensive SS and this past year pleasantly suprised us with his offensive production. We also have Brandon Fahey who is a defensive minded shortstop and Freddie Bynum, who is more of an offensive threat but is less defensively accomplished than the other two. We will continue to look outside the organization for help there as we really want someone to compete with LH for the job. We just don't want to give it to him.

No silly, not an offensive threat, just more of one.:002_scool:

Like saying Bynum is more of an offensive threat than this tree stump.

[El Gordo]

I agree wholeheartedly with the bold.

Regarding the last statement, please stop the persecution complex. My post said noting about the respective value of any of these three players.

Perhaps if you were not so quick to mistakenly attribute a motive to those who respond to you, you would not get all worked up over nonexistent ideas and arguments.

I belieive this is a good example of what one would call projection. If you would read my posts in their context you would see they werein reference to Bynum Fahey and LH competing for SS. Then if you would re-read your reponse which starts with "Quick , etc." and honestly ask yourself what you were doing there, you might see my point about projection.

[tywright]

What about OF's who make easy plays look difficult because of poor routes to flyballs. This is evidenced by Eric Byrnes getting the top rating for LFs. Sure Byrnes makes some amazing plays, but a lot of those plays are due to him making poor routes to the ball (i.e. he makes easy plays look difficult).

[El Gordo]

Well, while belly laughs are fun, what he said is true. He said Bynum is more of an offensive threat than LH. That statement is a true statement. This statement also tells me the organization isn't fooled about LH's offensive capabilities.

This is very true. Listening to AM on XM, it was very clear that he had low expectations for LH, offensively, based on his MiL numbers. He stressed building the team around good pitching, good defense, and made a point of stressing working the count better, in particular, pointing out the Bosox and MFY's superior PPA numbers.

[Mackus]

What about OF's who make easy plays look difficult because of poor routes to flyballs. This is evidenced by Eric Byrnes getting the top rating for LFs. Sure Byrnes makes some amazing plays, but a lot of those plays are due to him making poor routes to the ball (i.e. he makes easy plays look difficult).

That can't possibly be taken into consideration in anything other than subjective viewing based on watching highlights. The defensive stats are based on how many balls a fielder gets to out of how many he should have gotten to, or some variation of a similar theme. Not how they look getting there or if they dive or whatever.

[ON BASE %]

This is very true. Listening to AM on XM, it was very clear that he had low expectations for LH, offensively, based on his MiL numbers. He stressed building the team around good pitching, good defense, and made a point of stressing working the count better, in particular, pointing out the Bosox and MFY's superior PPA numbers.

I am pleased that McPhail feels this way. Hopefully these will be Crowley's new marching orders!