MacPhail On XM

[mweb]

This is mindless sniping. Please tell us one single thing I've said that over-values D.

No, at least one of your posts directed at me last night was mindless sniping.

No problem: "This is simply not true. The opposite is true."

Which was in response to "The long and short is that while defense is valuable, it is not as important as offense in evaluating player value."

Or "As for bolded part, I agree with Mackus that it is not debatable. It not debatable: it's just flat-out wrong.

When evaluating a player, DR are worth *more* than RC. Not by a ton, but by a little.

The bolded conclusion is exactly backwards from the truth."

Which was in response to "when evaluating an overall player, offense is more important than defense."

The comments that you were responding to are true.

And can you please tell me an estimate on what percentage value would you place on defense, offense as it relates to wins-loss record?

[Sports Guy]

This is mindless sniping. Please tell us one single thing I've said that over-values D.

Reference any post you make that actually talks baseball, which are few and far between.

[RShack]

This is mindless sniping. Please tell us one single thing I've said that over-values D.

I didn't ask for *more* mindless sniping, yet so far we've got two more of them.

Still waiting to see *anything* I said that "overvalues D".

[mweb]

I didn't ask for *more* mindless sniping, yet so far we've got two more of them.

Still waiting to see *anything* I said that "overvalues D".

How was what I said mindless sniping? And I clearly showed you *something* that shows you overvalue D as have many others. And of course, you still can't answer my question.

[Dr. FLK]

Because using errors as a measure of defensive ability, is about as misleading as using BA as a measure of offensive ability. Particularly with a young player.

Then can you tell me what stats he has that show his defense is superb? That's a serious question, not a snide one. I don't know anything about the other defensive stats. But, I do know I can't think of a great SS who committed 24 errors in a season very often.

[RShack]

How was what I said mindless sniping? And I clearly showed you *something* that shows you overvalue D as have many others. And of course, you still can't answer my question.

Trying to reason with you seems to be like talking to the wall: No matter what I say, it has no effect of any kind.

Not the facts, not the reasoning, none of it.

So, I give up. I concede defeat in this endeavor.

[SteveA]

Let's not start another LH thread and just agree to disagree. I've seen way too many LH threads this offseason...

Yeah, they are ridiculous for two reasons:

1) We don't have any intention of competing this year.

2) It's not like starting Hernandez at SS in any blocks any prospect in our organization and prevents him from making the majors as soon as he is ready. We don't have ML-ready SS prospects.

3) Regardless of what the GM says in January, the manager is going to let players compete in March. Even if Hernandez were to win the start, if he hits as most projections indicate, he won't keep the job for long. We'll try someone else there.

4) Until we know that there won't be a Bedard or Roberts trade bringing back a ML-ready or near ML-ready SS, what's the point in worrying about it? I guarantee if we get a SS prospect with good minor league numbers who appears to be ready for the majors, Luis Hernandez wouldn't start over him.

Talk about much ado over nothing, these threads about the horrors of LH starting at short are just silly.

[El Gordo]

Then can you tell me what stats he has that show his defense is superb? That's a serious question, not a snide one. I don't know anything about the other defensive stats. But, I do know I can't think of a great SS who committed 24 errors in a season very often.

AFAIK there are no available stats for MiL fielding. If you go by the small sample size of his ML numbers last season then his RZR projects to be better than Tulo's by 60 points. I think a conservative estimate would put him at a 25 +- rating. But who knows until he has a reasonable sample size.

[RShack]

Then can you tell me what stats he has that show his defense is superb? That's a serious question, not a snide one. I don't know anything about the other defensive stats. But, I do know I can't think of a great SS who committed 24 errors in a season very often.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56907&page=7

By the time you get to the bottom of the page, I expect you'll find some food for thought.

[mweb]

Trying to reason with you seems to be like talking to the wall: No matter what I say, it has no effect of any kind.

Not the facts, not the reasoning, none of it.

So, I give up. I concede defeat in this endeavor.

Talk about mindless sniping. Thanks again, for comparing me to a wall, so kind of you. Again, I'm the one who responds to points while you ignore most of them. I ask you a simple question, which you won't answer, I answer your questions, and you come back with BS like this last post. You say things like defense by position players is worth more than their offense, that it's a fact, yet, you don't show why besides saying runs saved are much more valuable than runs created. Yet, you provide nothing to support that and won't acknowledge that regardless of that, players contribute many more runs positively or negatively on offense than they do defense.

The facts, reasoning, and whatever else you want to add is not on your side no matter how many times you keep telling yourself that. And like anything I or anyone has said has any effect of any kind on you? Please.

[RShack]

Well, I am talking about who gets paid more. That is even more important than this whole offense versus defense debate. At the end of the day it all comes down to value. The Orioles are typically near the worst when it comes to dollars spent per Total Run and I'm sure McPhail is looking to improve this.

A guy like LH could possibly provide Total Runs similar to an Adam Everett. But when negotiating contracts the Orioles could use the prevailing offensive opinions to their advantage and reduce LH's salary leverage. The bottom line is if LH's superior Total Runs come at a cheaper cost, then it is a double-win for the Orioles.

Well, you're probably right. It certainly is the case that great-D appears to cost way-less than great-O. And if we can super-cheap great-D instead of moderately-cheap great-D, all the better.

I guess I'm not as big on runs-per-dollar as some are. If this was the Twinkies, A's, Pirates, etc., I might be way more focused on that, but I don't think this is the O's main problem. However, whatever arguments you can make that might help typical opinion about the value of O vs. D become more balanced and less 1-sided, I'm certainly all for it ;-)

ps: You could probably make a whole Moneyball argument that, given how this works, average-O and super-D is a bargain way to build a team.

[ON BASE %]

Well, you're probably right. It certainly is the case that great-D appears to cost way-less than great-O. And if we can super-cheap great-D instead of moderately-cheap great-D, all the better.

I guess I'm not as big on runs-per-dollar as some are. If this was the Twinkies, A's, Pirates, etc., I might be way more focused on that, but I don't think this is the O's main problem. However, whatever arguments you can make that might help typical opinion about the value of O vs. D become more balanced and less 1-sided, I'm certainly all for it ;-)

ps: You could probably make a whole Moneyball argument that, given how this works, average-O and super-D is a bargain way to build a team.

I'm glad that you see some merit to this. Revenue-wise, yes the Orioles are way above the Twins, A's, Pirates, etc. But in a division with Boston and New York the Orioles will always be at a disadvantage. That's why runs-per dollar are such a big deal to me.

For 2008, let's give LH a shot. What do we have to lose? Not only will LH make the league minimum but he might just have some exceptional defense to offer. If he succeeds then the Orioles could have a very low-cost solution at SS and spread the savings to other areas. I'll take value wherever we can get it!

[mweb]

"Win shares is a top-down approach which starts with the number of games a team won, and then attempts to assign credit to players, proportionally based on their statistics. On a team with equal offensive and defensive prowess, pitching and defense contributions receive 52% of the win shares and hitting contributions receive 48% of the win shares. This admittedly arbitrary decision is justified by James in that pitchers typically receive less credit than hitters in Win Shares and would receive far too few Win Shares if they were divided evenly."